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Author: MikeSmithson

Why UKIP is set to damage Tories a lot more than LAB at GE2015

Why UKIP is set to damage Tories a lot more than LAB at GE2015

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pic.twitter.com/7g0LyKdhLo — PolPics (@PolPics) November 28, 2014 LAB lost much of its traditional support long before the UKIP surge Today I’m off to London for a big event in Westminster to promote the GE2015 British Election Study – a huge academic imitative involving the universities of Manchester, Oxford and Nottingham that in the coming months will become an essential resource to all who follow politics closely. The rise and rise of UKIP is going to be a big focus and…

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Dave said to be coming under pressure to abandon the coalition now

Dave said to be coming under pressure to abandon the coalition now

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Abandon the LDs % govern alone, CON MPs tell DC – http://t.co/Ju6VB1uzZ6 But what'd that do to post GE15 relations? pic.twitter.com/8zPzaSxh02 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2014 Good idea or not? A short-term problem is that if the coalition broke down in circumstances like this then the blues would be seen as the “guilty party” and there might be a price to pay. Getting commons business through without the LD vote might be very tricky and the government could look…

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UKIP move up 3 to 19% in latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll

UKIP move up 3 to 19% in latest Lord Ashcroft phone poll

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LAB 31-1: CON 30=: LD 8+1: UKIP 19+3: GRN 5%-1 UKIP the main mover in this week's @LordAshcroft phone poll LAB 31-1: CON 30=: LD 8+1: UKIP 19+3: GRN 5%-1 pic.twitter.com/bRz4vZA8YR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2014 How the alternative vote would have impacted on voting How AV might have impacted on election. Interesting data from @LordAshcroft pic.twitter.com/y7JphKsn77 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2014 Tories now level-pegging in England The England only-figures in today's @LordAshcroft poll see LAB &…

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LAB running just 3% behind SNP in Scotland according to the Populus November aggregate

LAB running just 3% behind SNP in Scotland according to the Populus November aggregate

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But Sturgeon’s party would be one short on seats Following my post yesterday about the woeful lack of polling data from what could be the most critical area of all at GE15, Scotland, a PBer contacted me to point out that Populus has resumed its excellent practice of issuing a full monthly data analysis from the eight or nine online surveys carried out in the previous month. What’s great about this is that you have a very large sample which…

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If you think that GE2015 is getting hard to understand check out Martin Baxter’s battle-ground map

If you think that GE2015 is getting hard to understand check out Martin Baxter’s battle-ground map

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Martin Baxter, the ex-Cambridge University mathematiciion who has been running Electoral Calculus for two decades, has produced the above map that sets out the various outcomes and links them, based on party shares, to what could happen. I reproduce it above. In a technical note Martin writes:- ” Map only shows movement for the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties. It assumes the votes for other parties, including UKIP and the SNP, are fixed at current support levels. UKIP are…

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My special plea to those in the media responsible for commissioning opinion polls

My special plea to those in the media responsible for commissioning opinion polls

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The constant flow of GB-wide surveys is giving a distorted picture of what is going on Just about every day at the moment I find myself having to Tweet or write on PB that general elections are not decided by national party vote shares but by first past the post elections in 650 separate constituencies. This has never been the case more so than in what has for decades been regarded as Labour’s most important bastion – Scotland where 59…

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The key target for the Tories – those LAB voters in the marginals who are satisfied with Dave and want him as PM

The key target for the Tories – those LAB voters in the marginals who are satisfied with Dave and want him as PM

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The data in the chart above is from the aggregate 12k sample from the latest batch of Lord Ashcroft CON held LAB facing marginals to be published. I’ve highlighted four key groups who could influence the election in the most important seats of all – CON defences against LAB. The other reason I’ve chosen this polling is the overall sample size which which means that we can look at subsets with greater confidence. Those polled were asked to rate ED…

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