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Author: Mike Smithson

After two by-election flops the Tories should blame their own complacency

After two by-election flops the Tories should blame their own complacency

As it is both Starmer and Davey are now invigorated In the past two and a bit weeks the mood of Labour and Lib Dem parties has soared following the Chesham and Batley by-elections. For in both seats the Tories were widely believed to be next to near certainties and this was driving the media narrative and the betting. Betfair had the blue team as a 75%+ chance to take Batley and a 95% one in Chesham. There’s been an…

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Following LAB’s narrow Batley victory Starmer moves up in the next PM betting

Following LAB’s narrow Batley victory Starmer moves up in the next PM betting

As expected Starmer has got something of a boost in the Betfair next PM betting following his party’s narrow victory to hold onto Batley in the early hours of yesterday morning. In view of George Galloway’s intervention taking 22% of the vote this was a far better result for Labour than many right wing commentators have been ready to acknowledge. Galloway’s stated aim was to undermine Starmer and he flopped even though he took such a large share of the…

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In the last 13 Westminster by-elections just one has been won by a man

In the last 13 Westminster by-elections just one has been won by a man

There have been thirteen Westminster by-elections since December 2016 and an extraordinary fact is that in all but one of them, Stoke Central in February 2017, the winning candidate has been a woman. This streak started with Sarah Olney gaining Richmond Park for the LDs followed by Caroline Johnson’s safe retention of Sleaford and N Hykham a week later for the Tories. Trudy Harrison gained Copeland from LAB for the Tories two months later on the same day as Stoke…

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Could Batley change Starmer’s fortunes?

Could Batley change Starmer’s fortunes?

Like all party leaders after a much publicised by-election victory Keir Starmer sped up to constituency for the now customary photo event with the winning candidate and assorted party workers. For all the Tories have tried to play this result down the expectations were that they were heading for another clear victory in “the North” so long seen as LAB territory. The betting markets, as discussed in an earlier thread, are a good way of looking at perceptions and it…

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So another by-election betting market where punters grossly over-stated Tory chances

So another by-election betting market where punters grossly over-stated Tory chances

And the only poll, from Survation, was wrong as well Throughout this whole campaign the narrative was that LAB was going to get beaten and the story we would be covering this morning was whether Starmer would survive as LAB leader. We did have a poll that was published two weeks ago that had LAB 41%, CON 47%, LD 3%, Galloway 6%. The result at 5.30am this morning was: There is little doubt that Russia Today presenter and former LAB…

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The big reason why the Tories lost Chesham and Amersham wasn’t HS2 – but Boris Johnson

The big reason why the Tories lost Chesham and Amersham wasn’t HS2 – but Boris Johnson

There’s an interesting feature just published by the Guardian about the C&A by-election just a fortnight ago which makes the interesting point that HS2 is being used by the Tories to explain the shock result rather that was the big issue with many former Tory voters there, the PM Boris Johnson. The article by Peter Walker goes on: Rather than being a one-off upset, Green and other Lib Dems argue that their campaigning uncovered widespread dissatisfaction with the Conservatives and Boris Johnson..A…

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