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Author: TSE

The joy of six. How many of these states will Trump win?

The joy of six. How many of these states will Trump win?

Ladbrokes have a super six market of states, of these six, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, how many will Trump win. To be honest I’m not seeing any value here and see this as a market that will pay for the bonuses for those who compile the odds for markets like this. If you were to work out the accumulator odds for all individual six states to be won by Trump using the odds offered by Ladbrokes…

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Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on a 269 electoral college tie, should I take this bet?

Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on a 269 electoral college tie, should I take this bet?

Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on there being an electoral college tie, by comparison Paddy Power are offering 33/1, I regard the Ladbrokes politics team led by Matthew Shaddick are the shrewdest political bookies out there, so this discrepancy caught my attention. There are a few routes to a 269 tie for example, ‘if Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nebraska’s 2nd District vote for Joe Biden rather than for Donald Trump as they did in 2016. Those shifts, if all other state outcomes…

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Falling down

Falling down

Michael Douglas’s defining performance remains his leading role in Falling Down. He plays the part of a man who, when his car gets stuck in an unending traffic jam, steps out on foot and strikes against the annoyances and dangers of everyday life in a way that audiences would have dreamt of but never have dared. One of the joys of the film is how it leads its audience to identify with and cheer on a man who act out…

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Who will win the first Presidential debate?

Who will win the first Presidential debate?

Ladbrokes have a market up on the first scheduled Presidential debate for the end of September and my first instinct is to back Biden. Success equals performance minus anticipation and thanks to the Trump and his campaign they’ve lowered the bar for ‘Sleepy Joe’ so low that not even a baby Hobbit could walk under that bar. Then there’s what the Trump campaign have been up to President Donald Trump’s campaign launched a series of Facebook ads on Thursday featuring…

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Disruption on the line

Disruption on the line

Let me take you back to a different time, a time when we worried about how the transport system was going to cope with the weight of numbers placed on it. Just six years ago, the tube drivers were confident enough of their clout that they could strike to try to get their demands. The strike was not total, but the effect was nevertheless crippling for London. Yet, as an LSE study found, a funny thing happened. Improvise, adapt, overcome….

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Oh Jeremy Corbyn

Oh Jeremy Corbyn

In the past week there’s been some astonishing revelations about Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, some of which I covered last week, but for me the most fascinating was this revelation by The HuffPost’s revelations that Jeremy Corbyn’s office ordered that a raft of “moderate” Labour MPs should be stripped of extra campaign funding in the 2017 general election, a senior former party official has revealed. Patrick Heneghan, who was executive director for elections and campaigns, said that he was asked to…

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Back to basics. Poor administration and its consequences

Back to basics. Poor administration and its consequences

How Covid-Alert are you? Or, put another way, without checking, can you tell me what the current Covid Alert Level is? And without checking, can you tell me what that alert level means? I expect that most of you will have proven unalert by that measure.* It was supposed to be a touchstone measure. When Boris Johnson addressed the nation on 10 May, the introduction of the Covid Alert Level System was his central point. Let me remind you of his words: “And to chart our…

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The Corbynite delusion about YouGov contributed to their defeat in 2019

The Corbynite delusion about YouGov contributed to their defeat in 2019

Team Corbyn learnt that Labour would lose the 2019 general election three months before a voter had gone to the polls. On September 22, the Sunday morning of the party’s annual conference in Brighton, John McDonnell walked with his wife, Cynthia, to a meeting room in the bowels of the Metropole hotel. What the shadow chancellor was about to find out would prove difficult to stomach. In the last days of August, Niall Sookoo, Labour’s director of elections, and Tim…

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