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Author: TSE

Tory MP defects to Labour

Tory MP defects to Labour

Just before PMQs, I think this could be one of the grimmest ever PMQs for a Prime Minister in a long time, I don’t have enough popcorn for this. The most important question. Is this the first of many? This red wall polling might focus minds. TSE

Were you up for Boris Johnson?

Were you up for Boris Johnson?

His constituency might be why Boris Johnson resigns as PM before the next election I’ve been following UK general elections from 1992 onwards, so that’s eight general election nights (the last three of which have been when I was in the editor’s chair of PB) and in my humble opinion the most memorable and seminal moment was at the 1997 general election when Michael Portillo lost his seat of Enfield Southgate. In a moment Portillo went from likely successor to…

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Will Boris Johnson announce his resignation before the end of January?

Will Boris Johnson announce his resignation before the end of January?

Those of us who had to go through several hoops to get paid out on the Theresa May exit date as Tory leader markets are understandably wary about exit date markets unless the terms are explicitly laid out, fortunately this market from Smarkets make the terms explicitly clear. In this market I’m backing No, I can get a 25% return in just over a fortnight, I cannot see Boris Johnson standing down voluntarily, even if much worse stories emerge about…

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Flailing lying silly obtuse Johnson makes it worse

Flailing lying silly obtuse Johnson makes it worse

Watching PMQs was a must see for political anoraks because Boris Johnson’s inability to lie straight in a bed is catching up with him, to be honest, hiding in a fridge today would have caused him less difficulties, his non apology was bad but a response to a story from Sir Keir Starmer about someone whose father died during the pandemic and Boris Johnson’s reply included about the UK being the fastest growing economy in the G7, an utterly tone…

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Another reason to lay Andy Burnham

Another reason to lay Andy Burnham

and why Mark Drakeford might end up being the favourite to succeed Sir Keir Starmer Like Pip Moss, I’ve been laying Andy Burnham as next Labour leader for a while, I don’t think he’s as good as he thinks he is, which is a rarity for for an alumnus of the University of Cambridge. Looking at this YouGov poll from 2014 his accent might be a hindrance. If he is hoping his job might change his accent, the Mancunian accent…

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Mayday! Mayday!

Mayday! Mayday!

Looking ahead to 2022 one period where Boris Johnson might be at most risk this year will be in the aftermath of May’s local elections, helpfully Smarkets have a market up on these crucial local elections. One of the reasons Boris Johnson will be at risk is that if it is a poor night for his party, in contrast to the 2021 locals where Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to a 7% lead over Labour in the national equivalent share…

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Voters continue to socially distance from BoJo & the Tories

Voters continue to socially distance from BoJo & the Tories

In 2017 the difference between the Tories continuing in office or a rainbow alliance was the performance of the Scottish Tories, in 1992 John Major doesn’t win a majority without the Scottish Tories, Scotland is a very important part of the fabric of the Union, so in close elections pay even more attention to Scotland. The SNP will be happy with this poll, they are polling 3 points higher than they did in the 2019 general election, an astonishing performance…

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The voters think 2022 will be Boris Johnson’s annus horribilis

The voters think 2022 will be Boris Johnson’s annus horribilis

At this time of the year I look forward to seeing the predictions of the voters for the upcoming year as collated by Ipsos MORI. It looks pretty grim for Boris Johnson and Sir Keir Starmer with a majority of the public thinking Boris Johnson will not be the Prime Minister at the end of 2022 whilst more people think Starmer will not be Labour leader by the end of 2022 than do. Like Gordon Brown, Boris Johnson wanted to…

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