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Author: TSE

Boris Johnson’s opposition to Indyref2 might be as Herculean as his opposition to a border in the Irish Sea

Boris Johnson’s opposition to Indyref2 might be as Herculean as his opposition to a border in the Irish Sea

In my best Game of Thrones voice: INDYREF2 IS COMING I have been staying out the year of the next Indyref betting markets because it could get messier than the blocked waste pipes in the toilets of a large and busy Indian restaurant because the terms of the bet and whether the referendum was lawful could complicate things, however that might change because of the recent story in The Sunday Times. Senior Tories, including cabinet ministers, believe this position [saying no…

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The Welsh look like cementing their role as the Mitch McConnell of British politics

The Welsh look like cementing their role as the Mitch McConnell of British politics

YouGov and Opinium show different things on the VI but are consistent in showing the Welsh rate and prefer Mark Drakeford At the end of last month I wrote a piece looking at the Welsh Senedd elections and pointing out the Welsh are teases just like Mitch McConnell, hinting that they will break the habit of a lifetime but when it comes to it revert to type. In both the 2017 and 2019 general elections weeks before election day YouGov…

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We need to talk about antivaxxer GOPers

We need to talk about antivaxxer GOPers

If there’s one group of people that need gelding for their own safety as much as our own are those people who hate lockdown but refuse to get vaccinated or don’t get vaccinated promptly. For some reason they don’t realise vaccine hesitancy is likely to keep us in lockdown for longer. Fortunately for us in The United Kingdom the level of vaccine hesitancy is pretty much restricted to that small number of people who think Laurence Fox is an awesome…

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Ipsos MORI finds for the first time in a year optimists outnumber pessimists

Ipsos MORI finds for the first time in a year optimists outnumber pessimists

This might explain the current voting intention figures with decent Tory leads, whilst the EU’s vaccine strategy, replete with export bans, has also had an impact, whether this is fleeting or a permanent shift will be interesting. On the subject of Brexit, this latest trend data is notable for the fact that roughly equal numbers of Britons now think the UK’s decision to leave the EU has had a positive impact on the country (39%) as negative (38%).  This represents…

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Is Mark Drakeford the new Winston Churchill?

Is Mark Drakeford the new Winston Churchill?

Ladbrokes have a fascinating market on the Senedd seat of Cardiff West, looking at the odds above it seems a very easy Labour hold, you’d expect Mark Drakeford, the incumbent First Minister, to hold this seat thanks the excellent rollout of the vaccine he has overseen in Wales which has been seen in the polling. However the most recent poll in Wales by YouGov sees Drakeford losing his seat, which I think that might be more to do with the…

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Light the beacons of Gondor, Gavin Williamson may have just come up with a competent and popular policy

Light the beacons of Gondor, Gavin Williamson may have just come up with a competent and popular policy

We need to talk about betting on Gavin Williamson in the next Prime Minister & Tory leader markets. Being seen as a professional Frank Spencer tribute act Gavin Williamson’s reputation for ministerial competence is lower than snake testes, so when he announced the very competent and popular policy (as evidenced in the tweets above) then it merits serious discussion because these things are rarer than an actual moment of historical accuracy in the film Braveheart. The last two winners of…

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