Are Labour set to flower in Scotland? The idée reçue for many, myself included, is that Labour winning a majority at the next election is unlikely due in part of the position they find themselves in Scotland, down to just one MP. Until quite recently the SNP it looked like the SNP prepotency in Scotland would continue but after the recent events where the SNP gone out of their way to step on every available banana skin where it looks…
This is quite something, if this happens on Tuesday or some later date, then I suspect it will solidify Trump’s hold on the GOP and Presidential nomination, he could be the American Bobby Sands. I’d expect violence from the treasonous GOP that will outdo the January 6th insurrection, I’m not sure what this will do to the wider betting markets. TSE
One of the reasons many of us haven’t felt comfortable on heavily backing a Labour majority at the next UK general election is Scotland, up to quite recently it seemed that the SNP hegemony at Westminster elections would continue, now I’m not so sure. Ever since the 2014 referendum Labour have ruined their brand in Scotland, it became Ajockalypse Now for Labour in 2015 when they were reduced from 41 MPs in Scotland to just 1 MP in Scotland. A…
If it wasn’t for the stramash over Gary Lineker there would be a lot more focus on Rishi Sunak’s deal with Emmanuel Macron on migrants crossing the Channel. If Sunak was hoping for a polling boost from the deal he may be disappointed. More people, including Tories, oppose giving France money to deal with the migrant crossings. The voters opposed are a bit like Trumpites who expected Mexico to pay for the wall. But this polling is disappointing for Sunak…
As we approach the third anniversary of the lockdown YouGov have polled on the government’s handling of the pandemic. With fewer than one in five saying the government’s approach was too strict there’s a decent enough vote for the Tories to successfully campaign on their Covid-19 record but Boris Johnson and rule breaking Rishi’s antics means if the Tories want to campaign on their Covid-19 record it will lead to attacks over all those parties which will be suboptimal for…
Your regular reminder that how you frame a question can impact the polling response. YouGov’s analysis is essential for poll watchers to remember and understand that wording of questions has a huge impact on the results. We are lucky to have the British Polling Council which means we get to see the full details of the polls unlike America. I cannot imagine what inspired YouGov to conduct this research. TSE
Staff running local elections in May risk being “overwhelmed” by bureaucracy and complaints before and on polling day because of new rules requiring all voters to produce photo ID in order to cast their ballots. The warning has been issued by the Local Government Association (LGA) amid rising concern that the requirements are too strict, and inadequate preparation has been done to inform voters that the rules have changed. Ministers say the move, piloted in several local authorities at previous…
This is grim reading for the Tories, and whilst Sunak does poll better than his party the trend is Sunak’s ratings are moving closer to the Tory Party’s ratings. If this polling doesn’t change then I expect tactical voting will make a poor general election result much worse than UNS would suggest for the Tories especially with Labour having a net favourable score. With the Tories still wedded to Brexit and the country increasingly agreeing that Brexit was a mistake/going…