I like this market from Smarkets as most of the markets on the confidence vote are if/when it takes place or on the binary outcome of the vote but this on the vote margin. Whilst it seems inevitable that a vote will be triggered this month (maybe as early as tomorrow) or later on this month if the Tories lose both by elections I wonder if Tory MPs might delay the vote until after the Committee of Privileges has reported…
TSE
The most thought provoking article I’ve read in 2022 is the piece in Friday’s Times by James Forsyth which suggested the Tories would be more damaged by Starmer winning the next election but being short of a majority than Starmer winning a majority. Forsyth’s logic is compelling If the Tories lose the next election, changes to the voting system (always demanded by the Lib Dems) may see them locked out of office for a generation. And what happens if the…
Looking at who current Green voters may vote for One of the more interesting and complicated things in predicting the next general election is how current Green voters will vote. Labour’s hope is to reawaken the progressive alliance which is the bedrock of the Anyone But The Conservatives (ABC) alliance which allows tactical voting to damage the Conservatives, most spectacularly in 1997. If Labour want to feel confident about winning the next general election they will need to work hard…
Picture: Sir Keir Starmer continues the tradition of party leaders to have illicit curries. Last week I wrote a thread about the possibility of Sir Keir Starmer getting fined for his potential dodgy curry last year. I think another vulnerability for Starmer is that sector where Durham Constabulary think a breach occurred but decide not to issue a FPN which would allow Starmer some wiggle room on not having to resign. If that happens and Starmer tries to cling on…
I was intrigued by the scenario from Jon Worth, Lord Frost becoming Prime Minister has been discussed for several months and something Lord Frost has refused to rule out. I just cannot see it happening, the logistics of it seem highly unlikely, and I rule out the possibility of a Prime Minister from the Lords, after all getting rid of our unelected rulers has been all the rage the last few years. I can’t see Boris Johnson allowing Lord Frost…
TSE
Yesterday I speculated that Starmer would quit if he received a fixed penalty notice, I based this on the unmatched high levels of personal integrity that lawyers have, coupled with his high sense of ethics that DPPs need, and the fact of the criticisms Starmer has rightly launched at Boris Johnson for his repeated lockdown breaches. Starmer is tune with the public as this YouGov poll shows, although Beergate appears not to have damaged Starmer’s rating at YouGov. The cynic…