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Author: TSE

If it looks like an outlier, walks like an outlier, and talks like an outlier then it probably is an outlier

If it looks like an outlier, walks like an outlier, and talks like an outlier then it probably is an outlier

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This morning’s YouGov poll in The Times attracted a lot of attention, which given the allegations of sleaze emanating, inter alia, from the Greensill Capital story the doubling of the Tory lead was something most of us weren’t expecting. Critics of Starmer seemed to use this poll to criticise him until it was pointed they were inconsistent, contrasting their past behaviour when defending bad polls for Corbyn. The YouGov poll just felt like an outlier to me and others, some…

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Analysing the market on Biden serving a full term

Analysing the market on Biden serving a full term

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In recent weeks Joe Biden’s struggles up the stairs of Air Force One attracted much comment from his opponents and critics. It is a bit of an awkward watch, for some reason it reminded me of Ed Miliband’s inability to eat a bacon sandwich. But Biden’s critics seem to be pushing various memes about Biden being weak and physically unfit to be President, if you want to bet on Biden not lasting the full term Ladbrokes have a market up…

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A reminder: Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority

A reminder: Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority

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A reminder of the atrocious legacy Corbyn bequeathed Starmer & Labour Today is Sir Keir Starmer’s first anniversary as Labour leader and I thought it would be worth remembering the position Starmer inherited. Only three Leaders of the Opposition have made over 100 net gains at at next election, Attlee, Blair, and Cameron, so Starmer will be joining stellar company if he achieves it. My own opinion is that Labour probably needs to only make around 40 net gains from…

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I’d like to see betting markets on how many MPs and MSPs defect to Alba by the end of May

I’d like to see betting markets on how many MPs and MSPs defect to Alba by the end of May

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It has been quite an exciting 48 hours in Scotland with the announcement of the Alba Party by former First Minister Alex Salmond, we’ve seen two defections from the Westminster delegation which Ian Blackford has reacted to the defections dispassionately to rival the the way so many Conservatives handled the defection of Mark Reckless in 2014. Blackford’s comment reminded me of one Conservative’s observation at the time of the defection of Mark Reckless “I can’t say the word c**t but…

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The Prince of Wales of people’s hearts, in people’s hearts, and votes?

The Prince of Wales of people’s hearts, in people’s hearts, and votes?

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Boris Johnson isn’t the only British politician experiencing a vaccine boost The voting intention section of the YouGov polling of Wales was quite disheartening for Labour. Regular readers of this website are aware that leader ratings and other related supplementaries are often better pointers of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures ergo there is a bit of hope for Labour. As we can see in the second tweet Mark Drakeford’s ratings show he is the first Welsh Prince of…

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Just 7% would vote for The Queen to be our Head of State

Just 7% would vote for The Queen to be our Head of State

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Only a quarter of voters would vote for a Royal This YouGov polling really did catch my attention, just 7% of the country would vote for The Queen as head of state, that shakes out at roughly 1% for every decade she’s been on the throne. I wonder if this is the result of the Brexit campaign. Taking back control from our unelected rulers has never been more popular. I mean today we wouldn’t accept hereditary doctors or Prime Ministers,…

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Priti Patel may just have changed the Tory leadership rules and this has major betting implications

Priti Patel may just have changed the Tory leadership rules and this has major betting implications

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Voting systems matter when it comes to betting Earlier on this week Priti Patel made the astonishing announcement that the 2011 AV referendum result wasn’t just a rejection of AV but all transferable voting systems which is quite the radical interpretation of the referendum result given there are other transferable voting systems apart from AV which were not on the 2011 referendum ballot paper. If Patel and the Tory party wish to be consistent and avoid accusations of hypocrisy then…

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