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Category: America

This is starting to look like landslide territory.

This is starting to look like landslide territory.

What does Trump have in his armoury if the voters trust Joe Biden more on the economy? A fortnight ago I said that with the pollster Quinnipiac Donald Trump was the preferred choice of the American voters to manage the economy, but it is becoming clear that with a few pollsters Trump doesn’t hold that advantage. As with the UK general election of 2015 and the EU referendum the following year it was clear (in hindsight) that the supplementaries were…

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My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race

My logic for bailing out of the spread betting markets on this year’s White House Race

I’ll let you all into a little secret, it is entirely possible the stonking huge polling leads that Biden has turn out to be accurate but he still doesn’t win the Presidency. One scenario is where Biden gets votes where he doesn’t need them and Trump gets the votes where he needs them, but the scenario I’m going to look at today is that America isn’t a functioning democracy. With a pandemic on it has been obvious for some time…

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The final debate: Trump better than last time but this was no game-changer

The final debate: Trump better than last time but this was no game-changer

Betting at 0415 BST Biden 66% Trump 34% I did not stay up to watch the debate but from the reactions I’ve managed to collate it is clear that Trump did better than the first debate but he scored no knockout blows against Biden. In the betting Trump edged up 2% and Biden dropped 2% on Betfair. This was from the verdict by Taegan Goddard at PoliticalWire: After the chaotic and mostly incoherent first presidential debate, Donald Trump’s advisers pleaded…

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As we go into the final WH2020 debate Biden edges up further in the betting

As we go into the final WH2020 debate Biden edges up further in the betting

Overnight there is the last in the programme of TV debates between Trump and Biden. There were going to be three of them but Trump would not agree to the terms set out by the independent debates commission which meant second one did not take place. Tonight’s event includes a new feature – the contenders will be muted while the other is making statements. This comes at a time when maybe a third of Americans have already voted with in…

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Anatomy of an Error – Why forecasts missed the 2016 result

Anatomy of an Error – Why forecasts missed the 2016 result

On election day 2016 the 538 forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4% chance of winning. Of course, she did not. Forecasts now given Biden an even bigger advantage, but coverage of the race is haunted by the miss in 2016. It shouldn’t be. We know what went wrong in 2016, and we can see that Biden’s advantage is more resilient to the issue. The Midwest Mistake It is sometimes said that the polls were wrong in 2016, but it wasn’t…

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If Trumps wins next month, it’s the economy, stupid

If Trumps wins next month, it’s the economy, stupid

Looking at those key states, worth 55 electoral college votes that Trump won in 2016 it is understandable why people are talking now about a Biden victory but the size of it, but from those same polls there’s a sliver of optimism for Trump because the same polls that gives Biden hefty leads they also show this Now we’ve seen plenty of occasions across the world when the party leading the voting intention loses the election because they’ve trailed on…

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2024 vision. Some 66/1 and 50/1 tips to start off your Sunday

2024 vision. Some 66/1 and 50/1 tips to start off your Sunday

It might seem odd that even before the 2020 election day that people would be betting on the 2024 race but it does give a chance to spot some value. Ladbrokes have a market up on who will win the 2024 Presidential election and on the Dem saide I’m quite taken with the 66/1 on Pete Buttigieg and 50/1 on Tom Cotton on the GOP side. If Biden loses next month his age alone must surely rule him out for…

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