Browsed by
Category: America

The fight for the Lone Star State – Texas 2022

The fight for the Lone Star State – Texas 2022

Chart from the University of Texas Next year the US midterms take place, with the entire House, one third of the Senate, and 36 governors up for (mostly re)election. While the House and Senate generally get the media focus given their importance for what the President can or cannot pass, an interesting story is developing in Texas. I’ll give you the spoiler up front: The bookies are getting too excited about a fun but rather unlikely scenario and the incumbent…

Read More Read More

Like a bad smell Trump isn’t going anywhere

Like a bad smell Trump isn’t going anywhere

Jim Jordan’s comments confirm what many of us have expected for a while. My view is that absent actuarial reasons or if he is in prison then Trump will run for the GOP nomination (and win it.) If he is going to announce his intention to run in the next few days then you might want to get onboard the Trump train before it is too late, if you’ve been laying Trump for the GOP nomination/Presidency you may have toupĂ©e…

Read More Read More

Democrats look to be weathering the California Recall Election

Democrats look to be weathering the California Recall Election

On Tuesday 14 September California votes on whether to replace the Governor, Gavin Newsom. California has a strong ‘recall election’ law, allowing ad hoc challenges to be made against incumbents. Indeed, virtually every Governor for the last few decades has faced serious attempts at a recall election, though none has made it to the number of signatures required to trigger a full ballot since 2003 (the one where Arnold Schwarzenegger won). Ordinarily Newsom would be totally safe, given he is…

Read More Read More

2 Samuel 22:50 applies to the British Polling Council

2 Samuel 22:50 applies to the British Polling Council

I’m struggling to remember a more loaded polling question but the response was still even more shocking, it might explain why long term Biden won’t take a political hit for the Afghanistan withdrawal. But then I saw this poll from Rasmussen commissioned by Pizzagate peddling far right activist Jack Posobiec and I thought wow Rasmussen really are a joke, they make Trafalgar look good. We should be grateful for and thank the Lord to the British Polling Council and their…

Read More Read More

Are Trump and other top Republicans secret Democratic Party agents?

Are Trump and other top Republicans secret Democratic Party agents?

This chart from the NY Times & the MIT Election Lab is quite the eye opener and seems to back the other analysis that Republican voters in America are shunning the vaccines because of the previous rhetoric of Trump and other GOPers. This has a major impact on American politics and betting. The problem for Trump and the GOP leadership have realised that dead voters cannot vote, pace Northern Ireland, but sadly for Trump and the likes of Mitch McConnell…

Read More Read More

Some worrying statistics from America

Some worrying statistics from America

Those tweets from Ryan Struyk are quite worrying. I’ve pointed out for a while that this partisan divide on vaccines in America has the potential to swing American politics to the Democratic Party’s advantage for the next few electoral cycles. It has to change the demand and expectation of the health services in the United States, which also has to upend politics in America. Long Covid may make the GOP supporters of ObamaCare. This fits into a wider Covid-19 denialism…

Read More Read More

Cuomos and goings

Cuomos and goings

It has been a disastrous week for the Governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo, following the publication of a report on his behaviour, at least eleven women were harassed by Governor Cuomo. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo sexually harassed numerous women on his staff or in his circle in Albany, repeatedly touching, grabbing or making inappropriate comments towards them and retaliating against at least one when she came forward with her story, according to a long-awaited investigative report from Attorney General Letitia…

Read More Read More

The slavish devotion of Republicans to one person is damaging to the country

The slavish devotion of Republicans to one person is damaging to the country

This poll is part of a continuing series of polling which shows the GOP proving that they can sink lower than before. You would have thought if the January 6th insurrection really was the fault of Joe Biden and the Dems then they wouldn’t want to move on from it and keep on banging on about it. This polling does have betting implication, the changes since January means the mood is moving back to Donald Trump which should help his…

Read More Read More