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Category: America

A reminder that the polling mode can impact the result

A reminder that the polling mode can impact the result

Pew Research have highlighted this difference between American online and phone polls when it comes to the death penalty. The death penalty, alongside abortion, is one of the more controversial subjects and I can understand why some Americans may wish to avoid disclosing their true opinion to strangers. I suspect this polling difference may get worse in the future with things like, and I really wish I was making this up, at least one state in America is refurbishing its…

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The most depressing polling response I can recall

The most depressing polling response I can recall

I’ve never been more disheartened by a response to a poll than this poll. I think the GOP are becoming aware of the fact that they’ve only won the popular vote once in the last eight presidential elections. I try to use the word fascism sparingly but this is where the party of Lincoln is headed, but like many despots the GOP want to suppress their political opponents from challenging them. A confident party would want to focus on popular…

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January 6th is what some Republican congressmen are now calling a “tourist visit”

January 6th is what some Republican congressmen are now calling a “tourist visit”

It is now more than four and a half months since the dramatic events in Washington when supporters of Donald Trump stormed the Capitol building in the effort to stop Congress officially certifying that Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election – yet what happened that day looks set to dominate US politics for a long time to come. The latest move is for Congress to create an official inquiry into what happened and, no doubt, Trump would have been…

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My “Jo Biden Day 100” approval rating bet now looking touch and go

My “Jo Biden Day 100” approval rating bet now looking touch and go

Its been edging up not down A couple of months ago I did a post here and bet at evens that by the time Joe Biden got to his 100th day in office he would still have approval ratings in the range of 50-54.9%. I described this as one of the best political bets at the moment. My worry then with the bet was that the novelty of him not being Trump would start to decline and by the time…

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American polls may now need to fundamentally change their poll weightings

American polls may now need to fundamentally change their poll weightings

Correlation does equal causation? I’m fascinated by this analysis, perhaps American pollsters should change their weightings and ditch weighting polls by age and educational attainment and use things like (poor) health condition and alcohol use. With the structure of the American health system poorer people cannot get the heath coverage and assistance they need perhaps this is why the GOP tried to gut and sabotage the Affordable Care Act? It was an attempt to beget more GOP voters. This is…

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We need to talk about antivaxxer GOPers

We need to talk about antivaxxer GOPers

If there’s one group of people that need gelding for their own safety as much as our own are those people who hate lockdown but refuse to get vaccinated or don’t get vaccinated promptly. For some reason they don’t realise vaccine hesitancy is likely to keep us in lockdown for longer. Fortunately for us in The United Kingdom the level of vaccine hesitancy is pretty much restricted to that small number of people who think Laurence Fox is an awesome…

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Florida Governor Ron DeStantis looks a good bet for the GOP WH2024 nomination

Florida Governor Ron DeStantis looks a good bet for the GOP WH2024 nomination

He’s currently 6/1 second favourite behind Trump I’ve just had a small punt on DeSantis after reading this in the Wall Street Journal: Mr. DeSantis has burnished his brand with a Covid-19 response that has enthused the voter base of former President Donald Trump while—in Florida, at least—also impressing the kind of moderate and suburban voters who turned away from Mr. Trump in 2020..As the GOP looks to rebuild after losing the presidential election last year, that formula could give…

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If Biden doesn’t run at WH2024 Buttigieg should be as strong a nomination contender as Harris

If Biden doesn’t run at WH2024 Buttigieg should be as strong a nomination contender as Harris

Currently he’s a 4% betting chance while she’s a 35% one There seems to be a widespread assumption in the betting that should Joe Biden not be running for the 2024 nomination then Kamala Harris will almost automatically be the chosen one. This is reflected in the betting odds where I believe Buttigieg is under priced and Harris is overpriced. A big reason, I would suggest, is that Buttigieg’s role as US Transportation Secretary is going to give him significantly…

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