PB’s “The Money Says” Index : CON MAJ 56 (+2) We’ve barely mentioned the commons seat spread betting markers over the past two or three weeks because there’s been hardly any movement. But I do like to do an article every two to three weeks if only as a matter of record. The day has seen a bit of a change following since the weekend YouGov and ComRes polls. Now the Tory buy level on both main markets – from…
Are punters starting to get cold feet? As PB’s latest “The Money Says” Index – CON MAJ 54 (-2) – shows there’s been a slight move back against the Tories on the spread-betting markets where punters trade the number of seats the parties will get at the general election as though they were stocks and shares. The slip back of just two seats in the projected Tory majority is not that great but it has taken place since the ComRes…
PB’s “The Money Says Index”: CON Maj 56 seats Even though we have not had any news polls since the MORI survey on Monday the mood on the spread betting markets has continued to be away from Labour and onto the Tories. This morning’s changes bring the spreads to this – with changes on three days ago CON 350-356 (+4): LAB 226-232 (-4): LD 42-45 (nc). On the Monday before last, a few minutes before the January Populus poll came…
The projection’s now only 8 seats below the summer peak Even though Labour’s opinion poll deficit is considerably better than many of the figures that we saw during June-September 2008 the consensus of opinion on the spread betting market is that there’ll be a Conservative majority of 48 seats. This is based on a Tory mid-point 349 seats and compares with the 353 that the numbers peaked at during the summer. (Every extra seat on the Tory total increases the…
Is this why the Tory spreads continue to advance? The New Year PB “Balance of Money” Index based on the average prices on the spread betting markets suggests that Cameron’s Tories will win the next general election with an overall majority of 28 seats. The Index is so called because it reflects the collective views of punters based on how much they are prepared to risk on the number of seats the parties will get in the coming contest. These…
PB Balance of Money Index: CON majority 20 seats With possibly a YouGov and a ComRes survey still outstanding before we can draw the curtain on the 2008 polling season the apparent set-backs for the Tories are leaving spread betting punters relatively unmoved. The above table shows the overnight levels from which the PB Balance of Money Index is worked out – and as can be seen the mid-point spread on the Tories is at 335 seats – or ten…
With five polls showing the same thing should he risk it? The “Golden Rule” has operated in every single general election, EU election, London Mayoral election and in by elections where there has been polling right back to the 1980s – so clearly the wise course for Labour is to look at the worst case scenario. Tory polling figures seem more robust than Labour ones. One of the great things about Decembers is that all the polling activity is normally…
Why are gamblers lagging behind the polls? This evening “spreads” from the two main UK spread-betting firms suggest a Conservative majority of 32 seats at the general election. Their prices are based on how much is being wagered by gamblers who are buying and selling seats in the three main parties. The PB Index is a way of reflecting market opinion in one single number. It is worked out by looking at the “mid-points” – the difference between the BUY…