In spite of their ages, Trump’s 75 and Biden 78, the two men who were their party’s nominees last time continue to head the betting for WH2024. Taking them one by one I reckon Biden has to operate as if it is certain that he’ll seek re-election unless he could appear a lame duck. Clearly everything depends on his health but if it holds he looks as though he will go for a second term. I’m not so certain about…
Betting on the end month LAB poll average One of the innovative betting markets that Smarkets has up is in the chart above. What will LAB’s polling average be at the end of the month? These are the market rules: This market relates to the Labour Party’s UK parliament polling average on 30 September 2021, according to Politico’s UK poll of polls . A readout of the Labour Party’s most recent polling average (using the ‘Kalman Smooth’ display, to the…
And Truss should be taken seriously as a possible “Next PM” One of the features of ConHome, which was founded a few months after PB in 2004, has been its monthly survey of party members and the publication of its league table with net satisfaction levels for Cabinet members. It is surely not a coincidence that the reshuffle winners and losers could have been predicted from the latest survey which was published by the site on September 5th. Three of…
After a day in the Uk dominated by the cabinet re-shuffle, the above tripartite event will take place a 10pm. Quite what it is is hard to say although there is a fair amount of speculation on Twitter.
Having lived and brought up my family in the neighbouring constituency of Twickenham Dominic Raab’s seat of Esher and Walton is one I know well and where the LDs have hopes of making a gain whenever the general election happens. At GE2019, as the Wikipedia panel above shows, they came close last time and Raab would have lost if Labour voters had backed the LD. There are four factors that are central when looking at LD prospects in a particular…
There’s been a change in the next PM betting with Starmer back as favourite though only rated a 21% chance. What this market really shows, I’d suggest, is the growing certainty that Johnson will stay the course and lead the Tories into the next election. Sunak only gets favoured here when his boss appears in trouble – which is not happening at the moment. This is a market where it could be years, even a decade, before you could see…
Robert Hutton and Beth Rigby make a fair point in these Tweets – ministers can’t issue advice saying wear masks indoors when they don’t do it themselves. Heaven knows someone in the Number 10 PR department should have picked this one up before issuing the picture. All this does is reinforce the narrative about there being different standards for those in ‘Government and the rest of us. A PR fail.
On the previous thread PBer Isam wrote that he had just bet on the CON majority for the next general election. He didn’t tell us what odds he got but at the time the party was about a 40% chance on Betfair. We know that Isam is a serious gambler and his wager will be a significant one. One reason you place a bet of this nature so far ahead is that you believe that the odds will tighten which…