And so the polls close in Old Bexley & Sidcup
The result’s expected in the early hours
Punters split almost 50-50 on an early BJ exit
Apart from the by-elections one of the bigger political betting markets remains on the BJ exit date. This is something that is speculated all the time with those opposed to the current PM tending more to predict an early exit. Former PBer Alastair Meeks had this on his blog: I’d make it about a 60% chance that he will be ousted before the next election. Right now Betfair makes it about a 20% chance that he’ll be replaced by 1…
Contrasting betting charts for two very different by-elections
In Bexley the Tory price has barely moved In North Shropshire the LDs have been edging up Both charts are from Smarkets which now has the widest range of political betting markets.
Old Bexley & Sidcup: The betting overstates CON chances
Tomorrow sees the first of the December by-elections in the outer London seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup which was held by the Tories at GE2019 with a majority of 40% plus. It is what happened last time that is driving the betting that currently rates the Tory chance at 91%. This, I believe, ignores the current troubles for the party and it leader. This is only the second Tory by-election defence since GE2019. The first was in Chesham and…
Whenever the LDs have issued data like this they’ve won
The data in the above Tweet was sent out in a “confidential” email to members and inevitably it has leaked which probably was the intention! I am told that this is accurate information based on the canvassing returns so far in the December 16th by-election. The campaign aim is to persuade Labour and Green supporters to switch their votes to the LDs. It is also to persuade activists not to take their foot off the gas and to potential voters…
It’s surely less than a 74% chance that the CON will win both?
Punters overstating the Tories again? One thing we learned about betting on recent by-elections is that punters overstate Tory chances. Heaven knows why I was allowed to bet several hundred pounds on the exchanges at an effective 20/1 that the LDs would win Chesham and Amersham. Some gamblers took a big hit there. We saw a similar pattern with Batley and Spen though admittedly the outcome was a lot closer. Now we have got the December by-elections and with the…
Cooper moves to third in the SKS successor betting
There has been a big shake-up in the next Labour leader betting following last night’s shadow cabinet changes. The new shadow Home secretary, Yvette Cooper is now third favourite behind Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, and the former MP Andy Burnham who is no longer an MP I find myself never quite understanding the betting appeal of Andy Burnham who was a total flop in the two Labour leadership elections one of which saw Jeremy Corbyn end up as winner….
BJ drops to MINUS 17 in latest ConHome satisfaction survey
The December ConHome satisfaction ratings or just out and see a big drop for the prime minister who is now in deep negative territory in the latest monthly survey of what Conservative party members are thinking. These ratings have been carried out almost since ConHome established itself a few months after PB was founded in 2004 and are seen as a good guide to what the membership is thinking. All this comes after a very bad month for BJ following…