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The pressure mounts on Johnson ahead of Monday’s “COVID roadmap” statement

The pressure mounts on Johnson ahead of Monday’s “COVID roadmap” statement

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A cautious approach could be politically more challenging With COVID rates halving every two weeks, and cases looking to drop below 1,000 a day by the second week of April the Mail continues its pressure on the PM over his plans to ease the lockdown. This is going to be a highly tricky for the prime minister who is known to take a very liberal approach when it comes to imposing new regulations on the public. But the last thing…

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Johnson will find it hard taking the plaudits for the vaccination success and continuing with a strict lockdown

Johnson will find it hard taking the plaudits for the vaccination success and continuing with a strict lockdown

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A big development overnight in the fight against COVID has been the news that the death rate amongst the over 80s has dropped a massive 62% in a month. This group, of course, was first in line for the jab and this figure really underlines the success of the government’s big gamble last summer to ensure rapid early supplies of vaccines. But this good news is going to make the decisions on the next stage of lockdown that much harder….

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For the first time since July Johnson is back on top in YouGov’s “Best PM” ratings

For the first time since July Johnson is back on top in YouGov’s “Best PM” ratings

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But still the “not sures” are in the lead One of the most extraordinary polling trends that hasn’t been commented on that much is seen in the above YouGov table of its best prime minister ratings. For until Boris Johnson came on the scene it was almost a racing certainty that the incumbent Prime Minister would top responses to this question and, indeed, just ten months ago Johnson had leads of up 24%. Of the pollsters that ask this regularly…

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Why getting to Number 10 at the next election could be a tad easier for Starmer than Johnson

Why getting to Number 10 at the next election could be a tad easier for Starmer than Johnson

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He could become PM with LAB getting fewer votes and seats A big advantage for Starmer over Johnson at the next general election is that he is in with a good chance of becoming PM if the Tories lose their majority. This would be the case even if LAB has fewer seats. The converse is that Johnson’s Tories almost certainly have to win an overall majority of Commons seats to retain power. This is all because if Boris fails to…

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The Tories biggest challenge at the next general election: Starmer isn’t Corbyn

The Tories biggest challenge at the next general election: Starmer isn’t Corbyn

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The main driver of the GE2019 “red wall” gains was the then LAB leader One of the key factors about Johnson’s electoral successes is that they have happened when he’s been up against LAB opponents who subsequently became massive negatives for their party. Thus Boris beat Ken Livingstone for the London Mayoralty in 2008 and 2012 and his 2019 general election victory was against Corbyn who by then had been hugely discredited. If as looks increasingly likely neither the Tories…

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Tracking Covid

Tracking Covid

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Will the voters think the vaccine rollout doesn’t forgive the high death toll beforehand? I find the this polling very interesting because recent experiences over the last decade has shown leadership ratings and supplementaries are a better predictor of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures, which is why I look at the supplementaries with a fine-tooth comb. Opinium, in their poll published last night, found something similar to the YouGov findings above. The public think the government has continued…

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Powerful front page from the Daily Mail as UK COVID deaths top 100k

Powerful front page from the Daily Mail as UK COVID deaths top 100k

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Today’s Daily Mail front pages looks set to one of those that will be remembered and referred back to in the time to come. You can see it being used as one of the pics in the biographies that are likely to be written after he has stood down and will also be clipped for posterity by obituary writers. COVID has been the defining part of his premiership so far and it is still going on with the fatalities having…

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