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Category: Boris

For the first time since July Johnson is back on top in YouGov’s “Best PM” ratings

For the first time since July Johnson is back on top in YouGov’s “Best PM” ratings

But still the “not sures” are in the lead One of the most extraordinary polling trends that hasn’t been commented on that much is seen in the above YouGov table of its best prime minister ratings. For until Boris Johnson came on the scene it was almost a racing certainty that the incumbent Prime Minister would top responses to this question and, indeed, just ten months ago Johnson had leads of up 24%. Of the pollsters that ask this regularly…

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Why getting to Number 10 at the next election could be a tad easier for Starmer than Johnson

Why getting to Number 10 at the next election could be a tad easier for Starmer than Johnson

He could become PM with LAB getting fewer votes and seats A big advantage for Starmer over Johnson at the next general election is that he is in with a good chance of becoming PM if the Tories lose their majority. This would be the case even if LAB has fewer seats. The converse is that Johnson’s Tories almost certainly have to win an overall majority of Commons seats to retain power. This is all because if Boris fails to…

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The Tories biggest challenge at the next general election: Starmer isn’t Corbyn

The Tories biggest challenge at the next general election: Starmer isn’t Corbyn

The main driver of the GE2019 “red wall” gains was the then LAB leader One of the key factors about Johnson’s electoral successes is that they have happened when he’s been up against LAB opponents who subsequently became massive negatives for their party. Thus Boris beat Ken Livingstone for the London Mayoralty in 2008 and 2012 and his 2019 general election victory was against Corbyn who by then had been hugely discredited. If as looks increasingly likely neither the Tories…

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Tracking Covid

Tracking Covid

Will the voters think the vaccine rollout doesn’t forgive the high death toll beforehand? I find the this polling very interesting because recent experiences over the last decade has shown leadership ratings and supplementaries are a better predictor of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures, which is why I look at the supplementaries with a fine-tooth comb. Opinium, in their poll published last night, found something similar to the YouGov findings above. The public think the government has continued…

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Powerful front page from the Daily Mail as UK COVID deaths top 100k

Powerful front page from the Daily Mail as UK COVID deaths top 100k

Today’s Daily Mail front pages looks set to one of those that will be remembered and referred back to in the time to come. You can see it being used as one of the pics in the biographies that are likely to be written after he has stood down and will also be clipped for posterity by obituary writers. COVID has been the defining part of his premiership so far and it is still going on with the fatalities having…

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Special relationship: the British right’s appeasement of Donald Trump

Special relationship: the British right’s appeasement of Donald Trump

Barring a much bloodier insurrection than the one mounted two weeks ago, Joe Biden will assume the presidency of the United States on Wednesday.  Where does that leave the UK? Britain has long prided itself on its special relationship with the US, choosing to overlook the fact that the US tells France that is its oldest ally, that it has a strategic partnership with Israel and so on.  For many Leavers, focusing on the Anglosphere was a central rationale for…

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Back to British politics for a change and a possible threat to Boris

Back to British politics for a change and a possible threat to Boris

Making such a call at “peak COVID” appears naive The problem with this attack by Steve Baker is that all the efforts to control the pandemic according to the polling are supported by significant numbers. This to the question “Do you think that the UK Government is currently overreacting, or underreacting, to the Coronavirus?” Opinium found last week just 15% saying the former with 44% saying “underreacting”. By 72% of those in the same poll thought that the government hadn’t…

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