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Category: Boundary Reviews

As the DUP prepare to back CON on the Queen’s speech here’s the implied GE17 result under new boundaries

As the DUP prepare to back CON on the Queen’s speech here’s the implied GE17 result under new boundaries

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Electoral Calculus Will Team Arlene vote to make them Northern Ireland’s 2nd party One of the issues likely to come up next year is the boundary review and the reduction of Commons seats from 650 to 600 MPs. Martibn Baxter of the Electoral Calculus has produced the above projection of the implied GE17 based on the latest proposals. I thought it timely to publish this given that the DUP will be voting with the Tories this evening ensuring the successful…

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On top of LAB polling woes first analysis of the new boundaries suggests LAB will need vote lead of 13.5% to get a majority

On top of LAB polling woes first analysis of the new boundaries suggests LAB will need vote lead of 13.5% to get a majority

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The Tories only need a 1.9% margin YouGov’s Anthony Wells who runs UK Polling Report had produced his first analysis of the planned new boundary changes and the outcome is excellent for the Tories and terrible for Labour. The analysis also has the LDs down to just four MPs. I’m just on my way home from the Political Studies Association Awards in London and I’ll do more on this when I’ve had time to look at this in greater detail….

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Corbyn and the boundary review: not the disaster for LAB that it is but an opportunity for the hard left

Corbyn and the boundary review: not the disaster for LAB that it is but an opportunity for the hard left

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Joff Wild is puzzled by the half-hearted response of Corbyn’s team. It’s as if they don’t care The only question from a Labour perspective about the result of the Parliamentary constituency review for England and Wales is just how bad it will be for the party. The most optimistic prognosis I saw was from Paul Waugh in the Huffington Post, who reported that under the new boundaries the Tories would lose 17 seats and Labour would lose 23. But probably…

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The boundary review is so favourable to CON because Cam/Osbo defied the Electoral Commission to fix it that way

The boundary review is so favourable to CON because Cam/Osbo defied the Electoral Commission to fix it that way

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The former Top Tory Two have left TMay a great legacy There’ve been two major changes to the electoral system that the Tories have brought which have combined together to make the boundary review so favourable to them. The first is the introduction of individual voter registration which has had the effect of seeing that millions of names on the electoral roll had initially been lost. The second is the introduction of equal sized constituencies. The big question was when…

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First projection of new boundaries suggests that at GE2015 the CON vote share of 36.9% would have given it a majority of 40

First projection of new boundaries suggests that at GE2015 the CON vote share of 36.9% would have given it a majority of 40

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This compares with the 12 they actually achieved Well done to UK Polling Report’s Anthony Wells for the speed he has got his boundary projection out. Based on ward by ward his computation of the proposals Wells projects the above changes in the reduced size parliament. As can be seen LAB are the biggest losers and in relative terms the Tories are the big winners. The LDs would lose half their GE2015 seats and out would go the only GRN…

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The Boundary Review: Round-up

The Boundary Review: Round-up

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Really useful interactive map on Boundary Commission proposals from Election Data – https://t.co/ZNADXqPE23 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 13, 2016 Thinking that God might be Jewish after all. Or at least have a Jewish sense of humour. #boundaryreview https://t.co/uwCqZz4qVc — David Herdson (@DavidHerdson) September 13, 2016 Jeremy Corbyn, Boris Johnson and George Osborne among MPs hit by electoral shakeup https://t.co/HIYeuTCVLu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 13, 2016 Tory MPs join Labour in fight against boundary changes as more Con seats…

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The Boundaries of Wales : 1950 – 2010

The Boundaries of Wales : 1950 – 2010

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Where the total seats are being slashed from 40 to 29 The boundary changes to be announced tonight (and to the MP’s from England and Wales today) will see the first reduction in the number of seats in Wales since the Great Reform Act of 1832 and see Wales be reduced from forty seats to just twenty nine (it’s lowest number since the Great Reform Act) and will the be fifth set of boundary changes since true democracy (one elector,…

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The Boundaries of Northern Ireland: 1921 – 2020

The Boundaries of Northern Ireland: 1921 – 2020

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1921 – 1979 The six counties of Northern Ireland (created after the creation of the Irish Free State in 1921) have been returning MP’s to Westminster centuries, but it is only since 1950 when the concept of one elector, one vote was established with the abolition of the university seats that Northern Irelan’s MP’s really started to count. It is quite amazing to think that for twenty nine years (with the UK wide boundary changes in 1955 and February 1974)…

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