Browsed by
Category: BREXIT

Increased geography. Devolution, independence, and Brexit

Increased geography. Devolution, independence, and Brexit

I have been a disappointment to many people.  One niche group emerged in 2012, when my previous firm, Pinsent Masons, merged with the largest Scottish firm McGrigors.  For some time afterwards, whenever I met one of my new Scottish partners, I could see the faint shrinking when they realised that, despite my given name, I’m as English as they come.  They were always kind to the afflicted, of course, but a sense of the closest kinship would take much more…

Read More Read More

Moving on from Trump punters make it 69% chance that there will be UK-EU deal this year

Moving on from Trump punters make it 69% chance that there will be UK-EU deal this year

Above is the market from Smarkets, the betting exchange that unlike Betfair settled Biden bets at the weekend, on whether there’ll be a UK deal with the EU by the end of December. Undoubtedly what happened on November 3rd in the US and the prospect of President Biden has impacted on punters. The chances of a quick deal with the US in the event of a no-deal Brexit must have greatly diminished and that is something that the UK and…

Read More Read More

If this election follows previous ones then 10m more women will vote than men

If this election follows previous ones then 10m more women will vote than men

And that adds to Trump’s problems One of the features of this election which has been repeatedly observed is how poorly Trump is doing with women voters particularly those with college degrees. Four years ago that segment was mostly for Trump now its switched to Biden. Above is part of the demographic breakdown in this week’s NYT/Siena poll which shows the scale of the gender gap in this election. As can be observed Trump has a 6% lead amongst men…

Read More Read More

If Florida flips, as the polls are suggesting, then Trump is doomed

If Florida flips, as the polls are suggesting, then Trump is doomed

Florida with its 29 electoral votes has been looking pretty good for Biden and the current FiveThirtyEight average has Biden 3.5% ahead. What makes this interesting from a betting perspective is that as I write Trump and Biden are running at fifty-fifty on the Betfair exchange. Essentially those betting on Trump at this price are gambling that the polls are wrong. Given that the last time Trump was ahead in the polling average was back in March this is what…

Read More Read More

Trump making surprise recovery in the WH2020 betting even though most pollsters have double digit Biden leads

Trump making surprise recovery in the WH2020 betting even though most pollsters have double digit Biden leads

If you have been following WH2020 polling you’ll be aware that the numbers are still very much with Biden at both a national and a state level. But this is not being reflected in the current betting. What is the biggest political gambling event of all time as is shown in the Smarkets chart above and as can be seen the gap is closing. Quite what is driving this is hard to say but I think Paul Krishnamurty’s explanation in…

Read More Read More

And the Answers Are ….? The circuit breaker proposal

And the Answers Are ….? The circuit breaker proposal

“Circuit breaker”, “Lockdown 2”, “Tier 3 restrictions” – there’s no end to the descriptions being given to the steps being proposed by politicians in all 4 corners of the kingdom to the steps they want taken to stop the virus spreading further. So, presumably, they have clear answers to the following questions:- How Long For? The last lockdown was initially stated to be for 3 weeks. It ended up nearer 4 months and has yet to be lifted for some…

Read More Read More

Hollow Men – the sidelining of parliament during the biggest health/economic crisis in modern times

Hollow Men – the sidelining of parliament during the biggest health/economic crisis in modern times

In the film “Mrs Brown” there is a scene in Parliament where MPs are passing around a Tomahawk cartoon showing an empty throne captioned “Where is Britannia?” It’s a reference to widowed Queen Victoria’s long self-imposed isolation and its effect on good governance and support for the monarchy. A similar criticism could be made now – not of her great-great-grand-daughter – but of Parliament. During the biggest combined health and economic crisis of recent times, where is Parliament? Some Tory…

Read More Read More