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Category: By elections

Just 13 of the 31 local seats in Hartlepool on Westminster by-election day have Tory contenders

Just 13 of the 31 local seats in Hartlepool on Westminster by-election day have Tory contenders

As we all know the Hartlepool Westminster by-election is taking place on May 6th – the same day as the locals throughout England and the Scottish and Welsh Parliament elections. Nominations have now closed for the locals and these show that of the 31 council seats up for election in Hartlepool three weeks on Thursday there are just 13 CON candidates. Now I don’t know what to read into that, and there maybe local factors at play, but it is…

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The Tories move to a 62% chance in the Hartlepool betting after a seat poll from Survation has the Tories 7% ahead

The Tories move to a 62% chance in the Hartlepool betting after a seat poll from Survation has the Tories 7% ahead

The above chart shows the results of a Survation poll, commissioned by the Communications Workers Union, on the May 6th by election in Hartlepool. Like almost all single seat poll it has a small sample which increases the margin of error. It was conducted over the phone. The Mail”s headline on its coverage is Keir Starmer is on course for a humiliating defeat in Hartlepool by-election as new poll shows Tories have seven-point lead . The CWU was a strong…

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LAB’s betting gap over the Tories in Hartlepool now in double figures

LAB’s betting gap over the Tories in Hartlepool now in double figures

The betdata.io chart of the Betfair market tells its own story. After the vacancy in the seat was triggered punters made LAB and the Tories almost level pegging. Now that edged has out and in the latest version of the chart the Tories are 11% behind in the betting. There was a poll from Focaldata that had LAB ahead. One thing that might make this harder to call is that the pandemic means no doorstep canvassing reports of which in…

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Things to look forward to in 2021: An exciting by-election

Things to look forward to in 2021: An exciting by-election

Yorkshire, once again, may prove to be the most important place in the United Kingdom, if not the world. In May there’s a plethora of elections that will have profound implications for the United Kingdom, Scotland’s election is likely to be primus inter pares but the result with the most seismic changes could be the aftershocks of the election for Mayor of West Yorkshire. The 1/10 favourite is Labour’s Tracy Babin who has said if she wins she will resign…

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Local By-Election Review : The 2017 – 2019 Parliament

Local By-Election Review : The 2017 – 2019 Parliament

When I started this, I, like most people, believed I would be tallying the local by-elections for October 2019. Now, I find myself publishing the data for every by-election in the 2017 – 2019 Parliament! And, aside from everything happening inside Westminster, what an eventful few years it has been in local by-elections. We’ve had Labour gaining seats from the United Kingdom Independence Party, Local Independents gaining seats from Labour and Conservatives, Greens gaining seats from the Conservatives, Liberal Democrat…

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If there is no General Election then Bassetlaw could be the next big electoral test

If there is no General Election then Bassetlaw could be the next big electoral test

A Tory by-election gain would be in line with current polling numbers Next week the LAB MP for Bassetlaw, John Mann is quiting as an MP to take up a government role fighting anti-semitism. He’ll be elevated to the House of Lords. This means that there will be a vacancy which in the normal course of things should lead to a by-election most likely in December. If the government doesn’t get its General Election motion through on Monday then when…

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If there’s no immediate General Election then the next big electoral test could be a Buckingham by-election

If there’s no immediate General Election then the next big electoral test could be a Buckingham by-election

John Bercow, as we all know, is due to step down as Speaker on October 31st coinciding with the article 50 deadline for Britain’s exit from the EU. It has become customary, one of those unwritten parts of the constitution, for the outgoing Speaker to be elevated to a peerage and I guess  that will happen with Bercow. What would make a by-election  hard to call is that the constituency has not seen a proper General Election fight with all…

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An overnight local election result that highlights how difficult it will be to call GE2019

An overnight local election result that highlights how difficult it will be to call GE2019

Icknield (Luton) result: LAB: 36.7% (-5.6)CON: 35.4% (-8.8)LDEM: 25.6% (+12.1)GRN: 2.3% (+2.3) Labour GAIN from Conservative. — Britain Elects (@britainelects) September 26, 2019 We’ve seen big movements in the polls in recent months with Farage’s and the LDs move forward very strongly the latter often near tripling their GE2017 GB vote share of 7.6%. The local by-election above shows how the LD resurgence is going to make general election predictions that much harder. Swinson’s party will go into the election…

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