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The main lesson from the Brecon result: Demonstrating the effectiveness of Remain parties working together

The main lesson from the Brecon result: Demonstrating the effectiveness of Remain parties working together

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A model for the next General Election? Reflecting on the Brecon outcome the most striking feature which hasn’t really been commented on is that in a seat in Wales that PC felt able to step aside in order  to help defeat the pro-Brexit Tories. Given the relative closeness of the outcome it’s clear that this decision and that of the Green Party played a crucial part in this election and no doubt lessons will be learnt . We have a…

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It should be between 2am and 4am that we get the Brecon result

It should be between 2am and 4am that we get the Brecon result

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For reference the result from GE2017 How other new PMs fared Tonight could be very interesting for political historians. This is the numbers of days in office before each Prime Minister lost a seat in a by-election.#BreconandRadnorshire pic.twitter.com/0teZ4tngfo — Kevin Lang (@kevin_lang) August 1, 2019 The Brexit Party plane pulling a flying banner over the Brecon and Radnorshire constituency where polls close in the by-election at 10pm pic.twitter.com/zX7x6IOppj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2019

A week on from Johnson being called to the Palace and so far so good

A week on from Johnson being called to the Palace and so far so good

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How much of the bounce will be seen in Brecon? It is just a week ago that TMay went to the Palace to step down as PM and for the new Tory leader, BJohnson, to be invited to succeed her. Going back over the years new prime ministers’ taking over between general elections almost always see a boost in their party’s position in the voting intention polls. This happened with with John Major in 1990, Gordon Brown in 2007 and…

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Could the Tories just hang on in Brecon & Radnorshire?

Could the Tories just hang on in Brecon & Radnorshire?

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Am going to stick so money on the Tories winning Brecon & Radnorshire. At 26s I reckon it is value. Feel free to laugh at me on Friday morning. — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 30, 2019 PM Johnson has been in Wales today and spent an hour or so in ‘Brecon and Radnorshire where the Tories are defending a 19.5% majority in the by-election on Thursday. This is a critical one for him and his government  because losing the seat would…

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Now betting opens on a by-election that has not yet been called and indeed might never happen

Now betting opens on a by-election that has not yet been called and indeed might never happen

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Ladbrokes make Lib Dems strong favourites to re-take Sheffield Hallam, if we get a by-election this year. pic.twitter.com/izdiC6e46Q — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) July 29, 2019 One of the biggest shocks at the last general election was the former LD leader and deputy PM, Nick Clegg, losing his seat at Sheffield Hallam to LAB. Since then the news about this constituency has focused on the man who replaced him, Jared O’Mara, and things don’t look good with one negative story after…

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The July local by-elections see the LD surge continuing

The July local by-elections see the LD surge continuing

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(And that’s not just party political boasting either!) Local By-Election Review : July 2019 Votes Cast Liberal Democrats 8,096 votes (38% +18% on last time) winning 8 seats (+5 on last time) Conservatives 6,018 votes (28% -10% on last time) winning 2 seats (-4 on last time) Labour 2,672 votes (12% -9% on last time) winning 1 seat (-2 on last time) Independent candidates 1,622 votes (8% +3% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Plaid Cymru…

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PM Johnson’s first front pages after the day when he was most powerful

PM Johnson’s first front pages after the day when he was most powerful

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Team Boris will be very pleased with the way the papers are treating his arrival at number 10 and and his new cabinet. They reflect that he has made a massive impact. In one sense he is fortunate that the parliamentary summer holiday starts today day and and MPs won’t be back until early September. It was all designed like this to prevent an early vote of confidence. One of the things about taking over as prime minister is that…

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