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Category: Commons seats spreads

Could the LDs get most seats with 36pc?

Could the LDs get most seats with 36pc?

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538.com Nate Silver’s view of the Uniform National Swing Nate Silver, the elections expert behind the renowned US polling site, Fivethreeeight.com, has been taking a close interest in the mathematics of the UK’s uniform nation swing mechanism for converting poll shares into seats won. He argues: “…. these forecasts are based on a questionable assumption and may understate, perhaps substantially, the magnitude of gains that might be realized by the Tories and by the LibDems. In particular, they are based…

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The betting moves closer to a hung parliament

The betting moves closer to a hung parliament

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Seat spreads CON LAB LD SportingIndex 326-331 (-6) 227-232 (+4) 56-59 (-1) Extrabet 327-332 (-1) 226-231 (-4) 58-61 (+2) Betfair 330-334.5 231-235 55-56.5 Has market sentiment finally changed? After a period when the commons seat betting markets have been more towards the Tories than the polls we’ve now seen some movement and the Tory sell prices of both SPIN and ExtraBet are just above the critical 325 seat threshold. It’s been the same on the overall majority markets where Ladbrokes…

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Tonight’s commons seat spreads

Tonight’s commons seat spreads

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Seat spreads CON LAB LD SportingIndex 330-335 225-230 55-58 Extrabet 330-335 228-233 57-60 Betfair 333-336 227-231 54-55.5 So all are in Tory majority territory With 325 seats being the technical threshold for a majority government tonight’s spread have the Tory number on all three markets being above the critical number – if not by very much. There hasn’t been much movement and clearly everything is being driven by the polls. Mike Smithson

Is today the day you should buy the Tories again?

Is today the day you should buy the Tories again?

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Has YouGov done punters a favour? If there’s one thing that the declining Tory ratings, topped by the YouGov 2% lead, have done it has been to change the narrative. For what looked only two months ago like a foregone conclusion can now be reported as a real race again. The prospect of Brown’s Labour coming on top with most seats has shaken everything up and I wonder whether without it Cameron’s latest “most important speech of his career” would…

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Could this “official” projection make you a packet?

Could this “official” projection make you a packet?

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House of Commons Research paper Will the markets gravitate again towards a UNS view? The above is a chart that features in a recent Commons research paper based on what happens if there’s a uniform swing across all constituencies from 2005 election adjusted for the notional 2005 results because of the boundary changes. So taking last night’s ComRes poll split of 40-29-21 the rigid application of the UNS formula has the Tories still short of a majority even though the…

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So who’s winning the death tax skirmish?

So who’s winning the death tax skirmish?

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How many of these will there be before the day? I love politics in the raw. It’s all a spectator sport when it’s how parties and leaders handle issues and who is gaining the advantage. We dissect it here to the nth degree and I for one relish every minute. So today’s spat between Dave and Gord was entirely predictable. Yesterday the poster featured above started going up and Labour had to respond fast. What’s being attacked, that a charge…

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PB Index: Con majority up 4

PB Index: Con majority up 4

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The Labour backers continue to stay away Surprisingly, given, the latest ICM poll, the PB Index has seen a four seat upwards movement of the projected Tory majority. This has been mostly driven by changes in the latest prices from Sporting Index which now have CON 342 – 347: LAB 218 – 223: LD 53 -56 seats. The Extrabet market does not seem to operate at the weekend The Betfair line markets is virtually unchanged. So the roller-coaster February on…

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