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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

New Ipsos US polling finds HALF of Republican voters oppose the plan to fill the Supreme Court vacancy before the election

New Ipsos US polling finds HALF of Republican voters oppose the plan to fill the Supreme Court vacancy before the election

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll carried out after the news of the Supreme Court vacancy became known finds a lot voter opposition to the Trump/McConnell plan to fill it before the election. A total of 62% of US adults thought the vacancy should be filled by the winner of the November 3rd White House election, while 23% disagreed and the rest said they were not sure. As you would expect eight out of 10 Democrats want the decision delayed until after…

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This week’s most important polling analysis on the White House race

This week’s most important polling analysis on the White House race

I’m very intrigued by this analysis by the New York Times, as seen in the tweets above, it probably explains the current prices on Betfair where Trump is very close to Biden. There’s always a danger of refighting the last war, as Elliott Morris acknowledges, but in 2012 the RCP nationwide polling average had Obama winning by 0.7% when in reality he ended up winning by 3.9%, if we see that kind of error then Biden’s looking at something close…

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Ruthless: RBG’s death has given Trump a Black Swan to exploit

Ruthless: RBG’s death has given Trump a Black Swan to exploit

The whole nature of the 2020 campaign has just changed. For all her liberal views, one of the most significant legacies of Ruth Bader Ginsburg – via the happenstance of when she died – might be to embed a conservative majority on the US Supreme Court for a generation. Time is short. The Republicans have only six weeks to secure a replacement if they are to be able to go to their voters and claim the achievement of having delivered…

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On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much

On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much

On Betfair he’s 53% to Trump’s 45% We are more than seven weeks away from the Presidential Election on November 3rd yet we can state with certainty that this will be be biggest political betting event there has ever been. On the UK exchange, Betfair, a total of £82m+ has already been wagered on one market alone and that is just one bookmaker. All of the conventional firms and the spread betting companies have very active markets and by the…

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Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on a 269 electoral college tie, should I take this bet?

Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on a 269 electoral college tie, should I take this bet?

Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on there being an electoral college tie, by comparison Paddy Power are offering 33/1, I regard the Ladbrokes politics team led by Matthew Shaddick are the shrewdest political bookies out there, so this discrepancy caught my attention. There are a few routes to a 269 tie for example, ‘if Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nebraska’s 2nd District vote for Joe Biden rather than for Donald Trump as they did in 2016. Those shifts, if all other state outcomes…

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A Politico survey of early voting data in key WH2020 swing states finds the Democrats building up a marked advantage

A Politico survey of early voting data in key WH2020 swing states finds the Democrats building up a marked advantage

Early voting has been going on for a a few days now in group of key states where it’s possible from the data that is being made available to get some indication of how the WH2020 battle is going. Of course no votes have been counted yet – this is all derived from the numbers requesting to vote by mail linked and with what is known about them. In several of the States where information is available we are told…

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If you want to bet that the WH2020 polls are wrong you need longer odds than currently available

If you want to bet that the WH2020 polls are wrong you need longer odds than currently available

A former PB regular has been in touch with me to say that we’ve got it all wrong over the betting on the American election. He argues that Trump is in a much better position than several of the recent posts on the site have suggested and there are reasons to believe that the US polling is is not correct. Now he may be right and come early November those who have backed Trump will be delighted at the prospect…

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Unpicking the presidential election forecasts

Unpicking the presidential election forecasts

A number of groups publish statistical models, usually updated daily, which attempt to assign probabilities to the possible outcomes of the US presidential election. The best-known is Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com. Others include models from The Economist, Decision Desk HQ, and the New Statesman. These models all work in a similar way. They start by trying to get a best estimate of the current opinion poll averages, both at national and state level, correcting as best they can for the perceived…

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