Given the scale of betting activity on the American election quite a few punters have been in contact asking when bets are going to be settled. The timing very much depends on the type of bet and those linked to the number of Electoral College Votes are going to have to wait until recounts, like the one for Georgia have been completed. Bets linked to overall vote shares will be settled once all the counting has been complete and there…
Lots of analysis at the moment about the US election following the victory of Joe Biden and defeat of Donald Trump. One of the features of US elections which has been critical this year is that there is a much higher level of participation in US elections by women over men. There are more women than men in the US, they are more likely to be registered and have a greater propensity to actually vote. Thus of those who took…
Chart – Betdata.io It is perhaps worth restating that the reason why the Pennsylvania count is going on for so long is that there was a deliberate decision of the Republican controlled state authority to operate it that way. With so many voters choosing to cast their ballots by post the majority of states arranged postal ballots be processed as they came in in the weeks before the election. Not so in Pennsylvania where the state decided that nothing should…
This time tomorrow things could be very different for him If the polls have got this right then overnight we could see what is a relatively rare event in US politics – when a sitting President fails to get re-elected after a first term. It might not be that we get enough results to come to that conclusion for a day or so but you can sure that the legion of US political commentators will be examining every small move…
We have seen enough of this Betdata.io chart over the past months and the striking thing is how consistent the betting support has been for Donald Trump. Even though he’s been falling short by quite a margin in the polls punters in the UK seem much more ready to think he will actually hold on than other forecasters. My guess is that we will not see much change here until the first results start coming in overnight tomorrow and we…
For this to work it requires a huge GOTV operation and overcoming COVID fears Just about the whole world is aware by now of how Trump intends to declare that the election was rigged against him. He’s attached a special premium to those who vote on the day compared with those 94,006,161 Americans who have already cast their ballots either by voting in person or be using the mail. His first big problem is COVID itself which at the end…
The final weekend before Tuesday’s election and a lot of activity on the UK betting markets where punters had been viewing Trump’s chances quite a bit better than the US data analysts. Above is the latest Betdata.io chart showing the Betfair exchange market where a colossal £241,037,171 has now been traded. I’m now focusing on state betting where the polling shows Biden being very competitive but where UK punters, as I have been reporting, are putting more on Trump. I’ve…
One of the extraordinary things about the the American election on Tuesday is the level of early voting. This is partly being driven by the efforts of the Republicans to curtail it and of course ongoing suggestions that Trump will try to steal the election in some form. The chart above is based on data from the the excellent election project site which is gathering huge amount of data and regular updates. The States I’ve chosen to include in the…