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Category: EU matters

A British Gift – the ECHR

A British Gift – the ECHR

What is it about the European Convention on Human Rights which so riles some on the right (and, if reports are to be believed, the PM’s closest advisor)? It cannot surely be its name. Can it? A belief that it is a Brussels creation imposed on a reluctant Britain? Some may think this but politicians should know better. Even the PM said – (in 2016 so he may now have changed his mind) – “Keep the European Convention, it’s a…

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An interim government would need more than just a PM

An interim government would need more than just a PM

There has been much speculation in recent weeks about the possibility of the opposition parties and ex-Tory refuseniks coming together to oust this government and install an interim government, tasked with a very limited role of negotiating an Article 50 extension, promptly followed by a GE. (A variant of this proposal would have the interim government stay in office long enough to call a second EU referendum, but that seems vanishingly unlikely). Like many suggestions for resolving the impasse, this…

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The three post Euros polls have had three different parties in the lead

The three post Euros polls have had three different parties in the lead

In the past couple of days there have been three Westminster voting intention polls from different firms each with a different party in the lead. This is unprecedented. Here's Deltapoll https://t.co/nsMGtujNI8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 2, 2019 Opinium has BXP ahead with the LDs in 4th. In its final Euros poll Opinium had the highest rating of any firm for BXP – 38% against the 31% that they actually got. It had the LDs on 15% 5 below the…

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The Tories wiped out in London as Mike Smithson wins his bet on the Lib Dems winning London

The Tories wiped out in London as Mike Smithson wins his bet on the Lib Dems winning London

East of England, vote share: Brex: 37.8% (+37.8)LDem: 22.6% (+15.7)Grn: 12.7% (+4.2)Con: 10.2% (-18.2)Lab: 8.7% (-8.6)ChUK: 3.7% (+3.7)UKIP: 3.4% (-31.1) — Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 26, 2019 There are just over 100,000 Labour Party members in London, which is 20% of Labour’s total London vote. pic.twitter.com/PWEtJI72hC — Tom Hamilton (@thhamilton) May 26, 2019 Lib Dems get a huge symbolic win in Corbyn's Islington https://t.co/d9Djsm968N — Adam Payne (@adampayne26) May 26, 2019 The Conservatives are on course to win their lowest…

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Two party politics is still with us, except this time the two parties are the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems

Two party politics is still with us, except this time the two parties are the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems

D'Hondt rush to judgment on the Euros results. You shouldn't read too much into an election with a turnout of circa 40%. Plus votes rather than seats matter in the grand scheme of things, especially under D'Hondt. — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 26, 2019 Early days. But these results are turning into Corbyn's biggest nightmare. Northern Labour voters turning to Brexit Party. London and Southern Labour voters turning to Lib Dems. By appealing to everyone he's appealed to no-one. — (((Dan…

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Maastricht Redux

Maastricht Redux

Once upon a time there was a stubborn female PM annoying the hell out of her colleagues. A junior Minister was even overheard calling her “a cow” and wishing she would resign. She was determinedly pursuing and arguing for an initially popular pledge – abolition of the rates – by means of a ferociously unpopular policy: the poll tax. No-one was convinced. Tory MPs looked nervously at their majorities, their annoyed constituents and wondered why she would not listen. A…

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Frustratingly there’ll be no results or even on the day polls until Sunday at 10pm

Frustratingly there’ll be no results or even on the day polls until Sunday at 10pm

Those used to general elections in the UK and the drama of the exit poll coming out they might get a bit deflated to have reached 10 this evening to find the polls have closed and nothing is happening. We will have to wait until 10 p.m. on Sunday evening for the first results to come out. This is because of the strict rules about EU elections that no information on voting can be revealed until such time as as…

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Remember that at the 2014 Euro elections YouGov, by some margin, was the most accurate pollster

Remember that at the 2014 Euro elections YouGov, by some margin, was the most accurate pollster

2014 Euros polling – Wikipedia The others overstated UKIP lead by upto 7% With polls coming thick and fast at the moment the one big trend is that YouGov has been showing markedly better numbers for TBP and the LDs than just about all the others. At times like this it is useful to look at the record and what happened last time. The table above shows how well YouGov did in 2014 compared with the other firms and overstated…

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