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Category: EU matters

Labour’s last-ditch bid to stop its Remain backing voters switching to the LDs and the Greens

Labour’s last-ditch bid to stop its Remain backing voters switching to the LDs and the Greens

In Thursday's European elections it's Labour or the hard right. Don't let fear win here. pic.twitter.com/lBafANnlft — The Labour Party (@UKLabour) May 19, 2019 Maybe the problem’s that its seen a pro-Brexit party Over the weekend, there has been a flurry of apparently panicky messages coming out of the Labour Party to try to stop the seepage of support to the unequivocally pro-remain parties of the Lib Dems and the Greens. The above Tweet is the latest example. This is…

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The updated Wikipedia polling table for next week’s Euros

The updated Wikipedia polling table for next week’s Euros

What is very marked is the high level of variation between the firm’s most recent surveys. Change UK are recorded as being in a range of 2-6% The Brexit Party from 26% to 34% LDs from 11% to 19% GRN from 6% to 11% The Tories are in a much narrower range of 10% to 15%. The possibly outlying figures from BMG might be down to the fact that in its poll the Euros voting intention was put first. With…

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If you are looking for clarity about what’ll happen in the Euros then you won’t get it from the latest polls

If you are looking for clarity about what’ll happen in the Euros then you won’t get it from the latest polls

Dealing with turnout is very challenging One of the common criticisms of pollsters in recent years is that they have a tendency to herd particularly as we get closer to elections. Well for sure that’s one thing that isn’t happening this time. With just a week and one day to go the above chart shows the Brexit party lead in the most recent polls and as can be seen there is a huge gap between the figures from YouGov and…

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Is this expectations from the Conservatives or are they really going to finish sixth in the Euros?

Is this expectations from the Conservatives or are they really going to finish sixth in the Euros?

Expectations management or are the Conservatives really going to finish sixth in the European elections?https://t.co/HmZfRgv4yd — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 11, 2019 Why David Cameron & Theresa May might soon be seen as the modern day H.H. Asquith & David Lloyd George My first instinct to the Guardian story was this is expectations management by the Conservatives, I mean really the Conservatives finishing sixth in a nationwide election? But then I realised the evidence being used here were the arguments I…

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If the latest Euro polling is right the Tories are near to being pushed into 4th place

If the latest Euro polling is right the Tories are near to being pushed into 4th place

Wikipedia Over the last couple of days there been the first post local elections polls on the May 23rd Euro elections. As can be seen in the Wikipedia table the Brexit party is staying pretty stable in pole position with the Labour Party about 3% behind and the Tories much further down. In fact the latest Opinium poll has the Tories on 14% with the Lib Dems up 5 on 12%. It was always going to be, though, that the…

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Farage against the machine. Why the Brexit party’s chances are not as good as billed

Farage against the machine. Why the Brexit party’s chances are not as good as billed

Nigel Farage’s second coming has been greeted with fanfares in the media, which love someone who courts publicity and is prepared to do whatever it takes to get it. His gaping maw can be viewed wherever you look, and he has so far been given an unimpeded run for his message that Brexit has been betrayed. His credentials as a strategic genius who delivered Brexit are taken as read. His brilliance as a politician is assumed. The imminent collapse of…

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UK Euro elections have been no guide to what will happen at the next general election

UK Euro elections have been no guide to what will happen at the next general election

Even under Blair LAB never “won” a Euro election While everybody is getting over excited at the moment about the prospect of the May 23rd Euro elections we should remind ourselves and how they have been totally non indicative of what’s going to happen at the following general election Back in 1999, the first General Election after Tony Blair’s landslide, William Hague’s Tories came out as the top party with 33.5% of the vote 7 points ahead of Labour. Two…

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Blow for Change UK as it tried to complete formalities ahead of the possible May Euro elections

Blow for Change UK as it tried to complete formalities ahead of the possible May Euro elections

As if the people aren’t confused enough as it is It has just been reported that the new party, change UK, has had its party logo rejected by the Electoral Commission on the grounds that it could “mislead voters”. Apparently the emblem was a black square with the initials TIG and the hashtag “#change”.  Apparently the Commission took the view that the new party’s chosen emblem was not sufficiently well known. But Change UK should be registered in time to…

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