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Category: EU matters

Two party politics is still with us, except this time the two parties are the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems

Two party politics is still with us, except this time the two parties are the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems

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D'Hondt rush to judgment on the Euros results. You shouldn't read too much into an election with a turnout of circa 40%. Plus votes rather than seats matter in the grand scheme of things, especially under D'Hondt. — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 26, 2019 Early days. But these results are turning into Corbyn's biggest nightmare. Northern Labour voters turning to Brexit Party. London and Southern Labour voters turning to Lib Dems. By appealing to everyone he's appealed to no-one. — (((Dan…

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Maastricht Redux

Maastricht Redux

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Once upon a time there was a stubborn female PM annoying the hell out of her colleagues. A junior Minister was even overheard calling her “a cow” and wishing she would resign. She was determinedly pursuing and arguing for an initially popular pledge – abolition of the rates – by means of a ferociously unpopular policy: the poll tax. No-one was convinced. Tory MPs looked nervously at their majorities, their annoyed constituents and wondered why she would not listen. A…

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Frustratingly there’ll be no results or even on the day polls until Sunday at 10pm

Frustratingly there’ll be no results or even on the day polls until Sunday at 10pm

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Those used to general elections in the UK and the drama of the exit poll coming out they might get a bit deflated to have reached 10 this evening to find the polls have closed and nothing is happening. We will have to wait until 10 p.m. on Sunday evening for the first results to come out. This is because of the strict rules about EU elections that no information on voting can be revealed until such time as as…

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Remember that at the 2014 Euro elections YouGov, by some margin, was the most accurate pollster

Remember that at the 2014 Euro elections YouGov, by some margin, was the most accurate pollster

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2014 Euros polling – Wikipedia The others overstated UKIP lead by upto 7% With polls coming thick and fast at the moment the one big trend is that YouGov has been showing markedly better numbers for TBP and the LDs than just about all the others. At times like this it is useful to look at the record and what happened last time. The table above shows how well YouGov did in 2014 compared with the other firms and overstated…

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Labour’s last-ditch bid to stop its Remain backing voters switching to the LDs and the Greens

Labour’s last-ditch bid to stop its Remain backing voters switching to the LDs and the Greens

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In Thursday's European elections it's Labour or the hard right. Don't let fear win here. pic.twitter.com/lBafANnlft — The Labour Party (@UKLabour) May 19, 2019 Maybe the problem’s that its seen a pro-Brexit party Over the weekend, there has been a flurry of apparently panicky messages coming out of the Labour Party to try to stop the seepage of support to the unequivocally pro-remain parties of the Lib Dems and the Greens. The above Tweet is the latest example. This is…

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The updated Wikipedia polling table for next week’s Euros

The updated Wikipedia polling table for next week’s Euros

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What is very marked is the high level of variation between the firm’s most recent surveys. Change UK are recorded as being in a range of 2-6% The Brexit Party from 26% to 34% LDs from 11% to 19% GRN from 6% to 11% The Tories are in a much narrower range of 10% to 15%. The possibly outlying figures from BMG might be down to the fact that in its poll the Euros voting intention was put first. With…

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If you are looking for clarity about what’ll happen in the Euros then you won’t get it from the latest polls

If you are looking for clarity about what’ll happen in the Euros then you won’t get it from the latest polls

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Dealing with turnout is very challenging One of the common criticisms of pollsters in recent years is that they have a tendency to herd particularly as we get closer to elections. Well for sure that’s one thing that isn’t happening this time. With just a week and one day to go the above chart shows the Brexit party lead in the most recent polls and as can be seen there is a huge gap between the figures from YouGov and…

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Is this expectations from the Conservatives or are they really going to finish sixth in the Euros?

Is this expectations from the Conservatives or are they really going to finish sixth in the Euros?

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Expectations management or are the Conservatives really going to finish sixth in the European elections?https://t.co/HmZfRgv4yd — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 11, 2019 Why David Cameron & Theresa May might soon be seen as the modern day H.H. Asquith & David Lloyd George My first instinct to the Guardian story was this is expectations management by the Conservatives, I mean really the Conservatives finishing sixth in a nationwide election? But then I realised the evidence being used here were the arguments I…

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