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The French ban on opinion polls came into effect at midnight with Macron still ahead

The French ban on opinion polls came into effect at midnight with Macron still ahead

Will that hold good when real voting starts tomorrow morning? France has some very tight laws on opinion polls including a complete ban on then being published on the day before an election. So the Wikipedia chart above represents all the polling that we will see until we get the exit polls tomorrow evening. The young independent, Emmanuel Macron, is still in the lead and has seen it move up just a touch in the final few days. Le Pen…

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The French Presidential polls edge back a touch to Macron who is now odds-on in the betting once again

The French Presidential polls edge back a touch to Macron who is now odds-on in the betting once again

Wikipedia Tuesday’s shock announcement by Mrs May that there is to be an early UK General Election has rather overshadowed events in France where the country’s presidential election takes place on Sunday. In political betting terms this overshadows the British General Election period with over the past week £1.4m being matched on Betfair alone. Sunday sees the first round and if none of the candidates secures 50% of the votes cast, which is highly likely, then there will be a…

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If Macron makes it to the final two then surely he’s the next President of France

If Macron makes it to the final two then surely he’s the next President of France

Latest Macron-Le Pen polling Latest Macron-Fillon polling Latest Macron-Melenchon polling The above tables from the excellent Wikipedia round up of French polls tell a consistent story – whoever of those closest on the first round ends up fighting Macron then the young independent looks set to be the winner. Melenchon is the only one of the serious contenders who consistently gets into the 40s in hypothetical match-ups against Macron. Fillon fares worst with Le Pen in the middle. The big…

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Fillon moves to second favourite in the French race after new poll has him within a point of Le Pen

Fillon moves to second favourite in the French race after new poll has him within a point of Le Pen

The battle for France is a four horse race #presitrack 17/04MLP 22% (-1)EM 22% (=)FF 21% (+1)JLM 18% (+1)BH 8% (-1)@LesEchos @ORPI_France @radioclassique https://t.co/7ux5fUL7f6 pic.twitter.com/cvdDDGqL8g — OpinionWay (@opinionway) April 17, 2017 Fillon moves to second favourite in the French race after new poll has him within a point of Le Pen pic.twitter.com/tc1Bes3ocD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2017

The latest French Presidential betting has Marine Le Pen with an 87% chance of making it to the final two

The latest French Presidential betting has Marine Le Pen with an 87% chance of making it to the final two

But who will join her? With the French presidential election moving into the final two weeks I thought it might be useful to look at the betting by concentrating on who will make it to the final two. That runoff election takes places a fortnight later on the Sunday after British locals. There are lively betting markets on the first round of the election and I have taken the latest chances based on the Betfair Exchange for my chart above….

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A four horse race is now emerging in France following the rise of leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon

A four horse race is now emerging in France following the rise of leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Wikipedia With just 13 days to go till the first round of voting the big move in the polls has been the leftist contender,Jean-Luc Mélenchon, following what are being seen as strong TV debate performances. One poll during the weekend had him on 19% just 4 points Le Len and Macron and at the same level as the Republican Fillon. For the moment he seems to have momentum with him and we do know that there are much higher proportion…

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Richard Nabavi on Emmanuel Macron’s Cohabitation Conundrum

Richard Nabavi on Emmanuel Macron’s Cohabitation Conundrum

If the polls are to be believed, in a few weeks’ time Emmanuel Macron will be president of France, having easily seen off Marine Le Pen in the second round of voting. Pundits will opine that populism has been defeated, and chaos averted. This will be a premature verdict. Macron’s rise to pole position in French politics has been an astonishing one. He has never held elected office before; indeed the presidential contest is the first election he has ever…

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French polling watchdog intervenes after Russian report that Fillon’s now ahead in polls

French polling watchdog intervenes after Russian report that Fillon’s now ahead in polls

French polling watchdog issues warning after Russian news report claims Fillon regains lead. He's 3rd https://t.co/d4TLEo9qRk — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 3, 2017 Fillon moves sharply in the betting to 19% at Macron’s expense All the movememt in the French betting in the past 24 hours has been to the Republicn candidate, Francois Fillon, following a Russian news report quoting a Russian “poll” that he’s now in the lead. This is the Telegraph report “..In a statement released on Sunday,…

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