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Category: General election

65 years of Tory Prime Ministers – their educational backgrounds

65 years of Tory Prime Ministers – their educational backgrounds

And EVERY LAB winner of a general election majority winner went to Oxford One of my little obsessions over the years has been the very narrow base from which political leaders come from in the UK. The table above shows the educational backgrounds of every Tory PM since Churchill stood aside in 1955 and as can be seen all but one of them went to Oxford – the exception being John Major who did not go to university. Labour doesn’t…

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A nice way to spend your Sunday afternoon, watching This House

A nice way to spend your Sunday afternoon, watching This House

Like Mike Smithson I love the play This House, I saw This House at the theatre back in 2012 and when it was repeated in the cinemas in 2013, so I utterly delighted a wider audience will be able to see this. I was born in the late 70s but I’ve always been fascinated by these crucial votes in Parliament, particularly the 1979 vote of no confidence, something which is a pivot moment in the history of this country. It’s…

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To add to BoJo’s woes it’s Corbyn not the PM who’ll decide when there’ll be an election

To add to BoJo’s woes it’s Corbyn not the PM who’ll decide when there’ll be an election

PMs without majorities shouldn’t be able to call elections The Fixed-term Parliament Act was the most lasting constitutional change to come out of the 2010 to 2015 Conservative Liberal Democrat coalition. It was always said that it was unnecessary because the main opposition party would always vote for an election if that was offered as we saw in April 2017. That thinking has changed this past month with Corbyn’s LAB not taking the bait. He knows that the new parliamentary…

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The flaw in going into an election about “the will of the people” is that those thinking Brexit was wrong have a 6% lead

The flaw in going into an election about “the will of the people” is that those thinking Brexit was wrong have a 6% lead

This rather narrows the target audience This polling Tracker from YouGov has been asked at least twice a month since the 2016 referendum and the big trend is that there has been a shift from those thinking Brexit was right to those thinking that brexit was wrong. This matters, I would suggest, if there is to be an election which is presented as being about the People vs the Politicians as is being suggested by many commentators this morning. For…

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LDs just ahead of the Tories in 20 top CON-LD marginals YouGov poll

LDs just ahead of the Tories in 20 top CON-LD marginals YouGov poll

Just released on the YouGov website today is the above poll commissioned by the People’s Vote in the 20 most marginal Tory seats where the Lib Dems are the main challenger. As can be seen the Lib Dems just have the edge of just one percent ahead  The interesting figure is the 11% LAB share and my guess is that that would be squeezed very tightly in a general election in places where the Lib Dems would be the main challengers…

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Why many pollsters overstated LAB so much at the May Euros and what could be happening with current VI polls

Why many pollsters overstated LAB so much at the May Euros and what could be happening with current VI polls

  GE2017 LAB voters forgetting what they did could be causing distortion After the 1992 polling debacle when John Major’s Tories won an overall majority even though all but one of the pollsters had LAB ahead a big effort was launched by ICM to find out what had gone wrong and we’ve all heard about “shy Tories” less willing to take part in polls. The firm’s Nick Sparrow in conjunction with Prof John Curtice came up with what is known…

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In spite of all the uncertainty a 2019 general election is still less than a 50% chance in the betting

In spite of all the uncertainty a 2019 general election is still less than a 50% chance in the betting

Betdata.io chart of movements on Betfair Exchange Will Boris be tempted? Last night’s ComRes poll suggesting that the Tories under Johnson could secure a 40 seat majority raises the question once again of whether the new leader would risk going to the country soon after taking over the leadership. The reasons are powerful. The need to get Brexit through by the end of October and, of course, a desire to underpin the perceived democratic legitimacy of his position. Johnson would…

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2019 now moves to the favourite slot as year of the next general election

2019 now moves to the favourite slot as year of the next general election

Chart of Betfair price movements from Betdata.io The big betting move following Johnson’s thumping victory in the first round of the CON MP leadership voting has been renewed interest in the next general election taking place this year. This has now moved to favourite on Betfair. A challenge for a Boris-led CON party is going to be keeping the parliamentary grouping together because, if not, you could see him failing a government confidence motion at the first hurdle which, if…

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