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Category: General Election

The shifting tides: voting trends since 2005

The shifting tides: voting trends since 2005

What were you doing in 2005?  At the time of the 2005 general election I was at a 40th birthday party in Northern Ireland (“I like this place: they take their politics seriously”, a Kenyan friend said, approvingly looking at all the posters).  Tony Blair had just won a third term for Labour with a majority of 66.   In the intervening period, we have had four further general elections and the political landscape has been transformed.  Last year Boris Johnson…

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Oh Jeremy Corbyn

Oh Jeremy Corbyn

In the past week there’s been some astonishing revelations about Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, some of which I covered last week, but for me the most fascinating was this revelation by The HuffPost’s revelations that Jeremy Corbyn’s office ordered that a raft of “moderate” Labour MPs should be stripped of extra campaign funding in the 2017 general election, a senior former party official has revealed. Patrick Heneghan, who was executive director for elections and campaigns, said that he was asked to…

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If the Tories are to lose their majority there has to be an “understanding” between Starmer and Davey

If the Tories are to lose their majority there has to be an “understanding” between Starmer and Davey

So the punters had the LD leadership contest right. In a relatively low turnout election (57% of members) Sir Ed Davey beat Layla Moran by 63.5% to 36.5%. This was largely expected and broadly in line with the YouGov members’ poll last January. Davey has been acting leader since the GE2019 defeat in her constituency of Jo Swinson and today’s outcome puts him in a much better position to deal with Keir Starmer on an approach to the next election…

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CON lead down to 2% while Starmer is now 4% ahead of Johnson as “Best PM” in latest YouGov

CON lead down to 2% while Starmer is now 4% ahead of Johnson as “Best PM” in latest YouGov

Counting the cost of the A-level debacle The latest YouGov Times poll just published has the Tories in their worst position in any survey since GE2019 with Starmer now beating Johnson as “Best PM” by 35% to 31%. All this comes of course after the dreadful week that the Government has been having over the exam grades when the EdSec had to abandon his initial plan and leave everything to be based on teacher projections. The best PM figures in…

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Labour’s Corbynistas have yet to face the unpalatable fact that their man won GE2019 for Boris

Labour’s Corbynistas have yet to face the unpalatable fact that their man won GE2019 for Boris

A theme that doesn’t seem to go away on UK political social media is the attempt by many Jeremy Corbyn supporters to keep on claiming that their man actually did better than his two general election defeats would suggest. I get it repeatedly on my Twitter feed with all sorts of machinations being made to the 2017 general election results to try to prove how close Corbyn came to becoming Prime Minister. They are happy to quote that election rather…

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Opinium’s Tory lead down from 26% at the start of Starmer’s LAB leadership to 3% tonight

Opinium’s Tory lead down from 26% at the start of Starmer’s LAB leadership to 3% tonight

This is the closest for LAB in any poll since GE2019 In the first poll by Opinium after Starmer became LAB leader the Tories were on 55% and LAB on 29%. Tonight’s weekly poll from the firm for the Observer has CON 41: LAB 38: LD 6%. That is a remarkable change in less than four months and will be seen as a real vindication of Starmer’s approach to the job since he became leader on April 4th. Of course…

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Polling Analysis: Johnson’s approval ratings are markedly better in seats gained by the Tories at GE2019

Polling Analysis: Johnson’s approval ratings are markedly better in seats gained by the Tories at GE2019

The one poll we get every week is by Opinium for the Observer – a pollster that provide some of the best cross tabs for analysis. Because there can be such a high margin of error in taking the splits from one poll I have gone through all four polls that were published by Populus during this month and the figures shown are the average. The part of the surveys I have focussed on are the net approval ratings for…

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New polling analysis by Peter Kellner suggests that the Tories could lose power if an election was held now

New polling analysis by Peter Kellner suggests that the Tories could lose power if an election was held now

The data points to a 7% CON to LAB swing since GE2019 in the “Red Wall” The polling expert and former President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, has an article in the latest New European based on his study of the data from the last four weeks of Opinium polls. Unlike most other pollsters this firm has a range of cross tabs that make such an analysis possible. These include vote splits in the seats gained by CON from LAB at…

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