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Category: General Election

Will Starmer be Labour leader at the next general election?

Will Starmer be Labour leader at the next general election?

I’ve generally avoided the market on when Sir Keir Starmer will cease to be Labour leader because the year of the next general election is uncertain thanks to planned repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act and talk of Boris Johnson planning to call a 2023 election. This market from Ladbrokes is much more easier for me, will Starmer be Labour Leader at the next election and my inclination is to back Yes. Given how hard it is force out a…

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Labour has a bigger problem in seeking power than Scotland: the Midlands….

Labour has a bigger problem in seeking power than Scotland: the Midlands….

It is often said that Labour has no route to Downing Street without retrieving its former solid bloc of seats north of the border. Or winning back those “Red Wall” seats in the north-west and north-east of England. What is less often remarked upon is that it will not be enough – unless it can also do something about the Midlands. The part of the country which was until recently packed with marginals is fast moving them into safe Conservative…

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The case for Labour making an electoral pact

The case for Labour making an electoral pact

There’s a lot of water to flow under the bridge before the next general election. The future of Scotland and potential boundary changes are just two issues that would change the dynamics. Nevertheless, this piece assesses the potential for opposition parties and their voters working together to deny the Conservatives a majority at the next election. The data behind the analysis can be found here.  Tactical voting is an established part of our first past the post electoral system. For the most part it is done by those…

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I agree with Shadsy

I agree with Shadsy

I have to agree with Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes about moving the counts at the general election to 9am on the Friday. On administrative level it seems like a good idea as it would mean the counters aren’t pulling all nighters but are counting after a good night’s sleep. I postulate that it would make for a better environment for political gamblers to bet after a decent night’s sleep rather than pulling an all nighter. The fact we’d have a…

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Tories forever?

Tories forever?

There used to be such a thing in politics as the pendulum. Rather like its physical counterpart, it appears to have gone out of fashion. In fact, there were two pendulums operating simultaneously, one between general elections and one across them. The intra-election pendulum would traditionally swing away from the government after it was elected, as it created a lot of disruption implementing its reforms and, probably, front-loaded other unpopular decisions it felt it had to take, while it had…

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In spite of CON leads of 7-9% in the polls punters still rate a hung parliament as the most likely GE outcome

In spite of CON leads of 7-9% in the polls punters still rate a hung parliament as the most likely GE outcome

Above is the latest Betdata.io betting chart of Betfair’s next General Election overall majority market and as can be seen another Tory majority is rated as just a 37% chance behind a hung parliament. Part of this maybe because of the way the market is defined. A CON majority for this purpose requires the Tory seat total to be more than 50% of the total number of MPs. That means 326 or above. This for betting purposes ignores the fact…

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A reminder: Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority

A reminder: Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority

A reminder of the atrocious legacy Corbyn bequeathed Starmer & Labour Today is Sir Keir Starmer’s first anniversary as Labour leader and I thought it would be worth remembering the position Starmer inherited. Only three Leaders of the Opposition have made over 100 net gains at at next election, Attlee, Blair, and Cameron, so Starmer will be joining stellar company if he achieves it. My own opinion is that Labour probably needs to only make around 40 net gains from…

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