Browsed by
Category: General Election

Tories forever?

Tories forever?

There used to be such a thing in politics as the pendulum. Rather like its physical counterpart, it appears to have gone out of fashion. In fact, there were two pendulums operating simultaneously, one between general elections and one across them. The intra-election pendulum would traditionally swing away from the government after it was elected, as it created a lot of disruption implementing its reforms and, probably, front-loaded other unpopular decisions it felt it had to take, while it had…

Read More Read More

In spite of CON leads of 7-9% in the polls punters still rate a hung parliament as the most likely GE outcome

In spite of CON leads of 7-9% in the polls punters still rate a hung parliament as the most likely GE outcome

Above is the latest Betdata.io betting chart of Betfair’s next General Election overall majority market and as can be seen another Tory majority is rated as just a 37% chance behind a hung parliament. Part of this maybe because of the way the market is defined. A CON majority for this purpose requires the Tory seat total to be more than 50% of the total number of MPs. That means 326 or above. This for betting purposes ignores the fact…

Read More Read More

A reminder: Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority

A reminder: Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority

A reminder of the atrocious legacy Corbyn bequeathed Starmer & Labour Today is Sir Keir Starmer’s first anniversary as Labour leader and I thought it would be worth remembering the position Starmer inherited. Only three Leaders of the Opposition have made over 100 net gains at at next election, Attlee, Blair, and Cameron, so Starmer will be joining stellar company if he achieves it. My own opinion is that Labour probably needs to only make around 40 net gains from…

Read More Read More

What YouGov was reporting a year ago today

What YouGov was reporting a year ago today

Putting LAB’s current position into context Thanks to John Rentoul for Tweeting the above poll data from April 3rd 2020. As can be seen the immediate polling reaction to the start of lockdown was to get behind the government and the Prime Minister. You could easily argue that over the past year there has been a CON-LAB swing of nearly 10% but that simply ignores the strange times in which we live. This huge lead tapered off in the following…

Read More Read More

What happened when I switched the CON and LAB GE2019 vote shares on the Electoral Calculus seat predictor

What happened when I switched the CON and LAB GE2019 vote shares on the Electoral Calculus seat predictor

Even with a lead of 11.7% Starmer’s party falls short of a majority For some time I’ve been planning a piece on how difficult it is going to be for LAB to win a majority at the next election and overnight I got down to it. I started by using the Electoral Calculus seat predictor to try to get a broad picture of the sort of poll leads that Labour requires if it is to win an overall majority next…

Read More Read More

Opinion polls and local elections

Opinion polls and local elections

I wrote a thread header a few weeks ago which covered the correlation between opinion poll voting intentions (VI) and general election results.  I found that there is a strong relationship between VI and general election results, though the small size of the sample of eleven general elections on which I based the work meant that my conclusion was tentative. Given that we have a large number of council and other polls coming up in May, I thought it was…

Read More Read More

As far as punters are concerned the Tories are set to lose their majority at the next election

As far as punters are concerned the Tories are set to lose their majority at the next election

The Bedata.io chart above shows what’s been happening on the Betfair next general election overall majority betting market. As can be seen a CON majority, now a 34% chance, has risen to its highest level in a year while a LAB majority has dropped to 22%. My guess is that the recent moves are in response to the positive polling news for the Tories. The thing I find remarkable is that even with one poll having the Tories 13% ahead…

Read More Read More

Rishi still betting favourite to succeed Boris but Keir not far behind

Rishi still betting favourite to succeed Boris but Keir not far behind

The chart from BetData.io shows the 6-month trend on Betfair’s next prime minister market. Sunak and Starmer remain the top two but they are no longer as strong as they were. For Rishi there needs to be a Tory leadership contest and that almost certainly requires Boris to stand aside – something over which I am becoming less convinced about. Johnson, surely wants to fight another general election. But he won’t stay in that position forever and a great strength…

Read More Read More