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MIND THE GAP: HOW LONG WILL BORIS JOHNSON SERVE AS PRIME MINISTER?

MIND THE GAP: HOW LONG WILL BORIS JOHNSON SERVE AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Wikipedia – data tables can be viewed here. Serving as Prime Minister for a long time does not guarantee that history will remember you kindly. But I suspect most who reach the summit of politics are keenly aware of their place in the longevity league table. The chart above shows the length of time served as Prime Minister for each of the 77 individual stints. They can be grouped into three broad categories: 1) The also-rans: 50 stints of…

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By-election shock results

By-election shock results

Did the betting markets fail in Chesham & Amersham and Batley & Spen? Two big by-election shocks in the space of two weeks. Did the pundits and betting markets underestimate the eventual winners as the Conservatives failed to win both Chesham & Amersham and Batley & Spen? First, an explanation of what I mean by betting markets. The days of only ‘bookies’ deciding what the odds should be are long gone. The odds you’ll see on exchanges like Smarkets are the result…

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The case for Labour making an electoral pact

The case for Labour making an electoral pact

There’s a lot of water to flow under the bridge before the next general election. The future of Scotland and potential boundary changes are just two issues that would change the dynamics. Nevertheless, this piece assesses the potential for opposition parties and their voters working together to deny the Conservatives a majority at the next election. The data behind the analysis can be found here.  Tactical voting is an established part of our first past the post electoral system. For the most part it is done by those…

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The Great Unknown: A Betting History Of The Great British By-Election

The Great Unknown: A Betting History Of The Great British By-Election

The modern era of political betting began in 1963 when Ladbrokes’ Ron Pollard opened up a book on the Conservative Party leadership contest. Shrewd punters could back the outsider Alec Douglas-Home at 16/1 over the hot 5/4 favourite Rab Butler….. In recent years we have seen political betting reach new heights, becoming an integral part of the political narrative itself. Figures as diverse as Jeremy Corbyn, Nigel Farage and Donald Trump have traded on their tag as “underdogs” to cause…

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Arlene Foster, End Of An Era. Who Next?

Arlene Foster, End Of An Era. Who Next?

As We All Know Arlene Foster Has Resigned From Her DUP Leader & First Minister Duties. She Was Leader For Almost Six Years. There Were Ups And There Were Downs. In My Honest Opinion, She Simply Made Too Many Mistakes And The Pressure Has Been Building For A Number Of Months. With Arlene Leaving In May, Who Will Be The Next DUP Leader? Below Are The Runners & Profiles For Each Candidate: Name : Jeffrey Donaldson (Aged 58)Current Odds :…

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Labour’s Hiraeth

Labour’s Hiraeth

This draft thread header was written in December 2019, but due to pressure of work I never had a chance to send it in. Alterations are shown in italics.  In 1918, Couponed candidates took 20 seats, Asquithian Liberals three seats, and Labour or Independent Labour candidates twelve seats in Wales. I mention this not from any particular desire to talk about 1918 in Welsh politics, but because it marks the last occasion to date when Labour failed to top a…

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It looks like there’s Major Mispricing in the Majority Market

It looks like there’s Major Mispricing in the Majority Market

In 2019 the Conservatives won an 80 seat majority with an 11.5% popular vote lead. Since then their polling lead has floated between 20% to around 0%. Right now it is mid to high single digits, though polls are a bit all over the place at the moment. They will probably win a majority again at the next election. That shouldn’t be a controversial statement, yet the betting markets will give you up to 2/1 on this outcome. Why? The…

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The dangerous first step towards the end of the World Wide Web as we know it

The dangerous first step towards the end of the World Wide Web as we know it

Richard Tyndall on the Australian government move against Facebook So one day, when this terrible virus is finally under some semblance of control, we will be able to go back to the pub. We will be able to do something that we have been unable to do for far too long – socialise face to face with our friends. Hopefully we will be able to resurrect the Political Betting pub nights and prove to each other we really are human…

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