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Category: Joe Biden

Trump might have his base but for most Americans he’s electorally toxic

Trump might have his base but for most Americans he’s electorally toxic

The above poll finding from the well-regarded Pew Research sets out simply the challenge Republican leaders have as they meet for their annual gathering CPAC gathering in Orlando this weekend. For tomorrow Donald Trump will be the main speaker and he has already made it clear that he will use the power of his base to make himself the de facto leader. This is Trump’s party and he wants to ensure that those loyal to him will get selected for…

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Could WH2024 be a re-run of Biden v Trump

Could WH2024 be a re-run of Biden v Trump

They are 2nd and 3rd in the betting in an interview with CNN the 20212 Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, said that if Trump wanted to run again in 2024 he was sure that he would get the nomination. I think that this is right and that’s how the betting markets see it. On the other side 78 year old Joe Biden has not ruled out a second term and in the betting he is second favourite behind Kamala Harris to…

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The UK’s still odds-on favourite for Biden’s first international visit – but could he stopover in Dublin along the way?

The UK’s still odds-on favourite for Biden’s first international visit – but could he stopover in Dublin along the way?

Above is the chart on the Smarkets market over where Joe Biden’s first international visit as president will be. At the moment just about the total focus of the new administration has been on filling the key cabinet places and of course dealing with the COVID pandemic. One thing we do know however is that the new President will be attending the meeting of the G7 which is scheduled to be held in Cornwall in June. So assuming he goes…

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Biden doing 18% better in approval terms than Trump was getting at the start of his presidency

Biden doing 18% better in approval terms than Trump was getting at the start of his presidency

Biden is enjoying just about the best honeymoon in ratings terms compared with any other of the Presidents in the last 28 years. The figures are from the CNBC All-America Economic Survey and the comarative numbers are in the panel above. These show the opening ratings from the pollster and the best number that each of the five achieved. On the latter measure George W Bush’s astonishing 85% came in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers in…

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Which of these countries will President Biden visit first?

Which of these countries will President Biden visit first?

Whenever there is a new US President one of the first betting markets to appear is this one – where will be his/her first international visit. What I like about the above one from Smarkets is that it limits the list to six obvious ones. The Ukraine is also on the list but nobody had bet on it at the time of me doing my screen grab. We know that Biden is almost certain to be in the UK for…

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Biden: Europe’s last American

Biden: Europe’s last American

An old normalcy will do nothing to shake Europe from its complacency Chicago has produced more than its fair share of colourful politicians. Rod Blagojevich – recently pardoned by Donald Trump – was impeached in 2009 as Governor of Illinois for attempting to sell (among other executive actions) Barack Obama’s former senate seat after the latter was elected president. A half-century earlier, Mayor Richard J Daley ran the city like a fiefdom, making and breaking presidential campaigns along the way….

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With 98% of the votes counted the Dems looks set to gain both Georgia US Senate seats

With 98% of the votes counted the Dems looks set to gain both Georgia US Senate seats

The above from the New York Times shows the big American news overnight that the Democrats look all set to take the two Georgia runoffs seats. This is hugely significant as it means that in the new Senate the split will be 50/50 between the Democrats and the Republicans. Because the casting vote goes to to the Vice President, Kamala Harris from January 20th, Biden will become a President in 2 weeks time with his party controlling both parts of…

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The Georgia runoffs are looking very tight

The Georgia runoffs are looking very tight

In 8 days time in the state of Georgia there are critical elections which will have a huge impact on how the US is governed at the start of the Biden administration. For on November 3rd the Democrats failed to win control of the Senate but there are two seats outstanding in the state of Georgia. One was a regular election that comes round for every 6 years and the other was a special election for a seat that had…

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