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Category: Keir Starmer

What YouGov was reporting a year ago today

What YouGov was reporting a year ago today

Putting LAB’s current position into context Thanks to John Rentoul for Tweeting the above poll data from April 3rd 2020. As can be seen the immediate polling reaction to the start of lockdown was to get behind the government and the Prime Minister. You could easily argue that over the past year there has been a CON-LAB swing of nearly 10% but that simply ignores the strange times in which we live. This huge lead tapered off in the following…

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A year on for Starmer and he has yet been able to shake the hands of a single voter

A year on for Starmer and he has yet been able to shake the hands of a single voter

Events overshadowing his election were even worse than for IDS in September 2001 I always felt sorry for IDS whose election as Tory leader was due to take place the the day after 9/11 – an event that so dominated the world that he never really had a chance to have a honeymoon period. But at least, unlike Keir Starmer, IDS was able to have a first conference speech within weeks and was not barred from shaking people’s hands. We…

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Starmer’s still got an approval ratings edge but not in places where it matters

Starmer’s still got an approval ratings edge but not in places where it matters

One of the things that is rarely done in polling analysis is to look at geographical breakdowns breakdown like in the chart above based on the latest Opinium poll. In this case it is really important to take notice of this because of the huge gulf that it portrays between how Johnson and Starmer are perceived in London compared with views a hundred or so miles up the motorway in the Midlands and then the North. The clear pattern is…

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Why getting to Number 10 at the next election could be a tad easier for Starmer than Johnson

Why getting to Number 10 at the next election could be a tad easier for Starmer than Johnson

He could become PM with LAB getting fewer votes and seats A big advantage for Starmer over Johnson at the next general election is that he is in with a good chance of becoming PM if the Tories lose their majority. This would be the case even if LAB has fewer seats. The converse is that Johnson’s Tories almost certainly have to win an overall majority of Commons seats to retain power. This is all because if Boris fails to…

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Would the real Keir Starmer please stand up?

Would the real Keir Starmer please stand up?

2020 has not been short of challenges. Covid-19, the ensuing economic fall-out and the final stages of Brexit have been playing out. By and large, the government has proven unequal to the challenge. That is not just my opinion, but that of the public at large.  Just 34% of the public were satisfied with the government’s handling of Covid-19 in the last YouGov survey on the matter and 52% of the public disapprove of the government’s record to date with just 27% approving….

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Why Isn’t Labour Cutting Through?

Why Isn’t Labour Cutting Through?

The Shadow Chancellor’s response to Sunak’s updated support package this week was well made. Ms Dodds has been saying much the same these past few months, if sotto voce. Perhaps because of this – and despite Starmer generally getting the better of the PM at PMQs – Labour has not broken through in the polls. The Tories’ large leads have largely evaporated so that is something. But the question remains. Why hasn’t Labour made more of an impact? This government…

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The great vacillator: Starmer needs to find some backbone

The great vacillator: Starmer needs to find some backbone

He appears far too scared of Tory criticism There has been a minor infectious outbreak in Westminster. Not Covid-19 in this instance, where recent case numbers remain much lower than in the Spring, despite Jacob Rees-Mogg’s efforts. No, in this case the infection is rebellion. On the Tory side, Chris Green – formerly PPS to the Leader of the Lords – quit over the government’s Covid-19 policy. Labour, by contrast, suffered a more substantial set of resignations, as two junior…

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