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Category: Labour leadership

A reminder: Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority

A reminder: Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority

A reminder of the atrocious legacy Corbyn bequeathed Starmer & Labour Today is Sir Keir Starmer’s first anniversary as Labour leader and I thought it would be worth remembering the position Starmer inherited. Only three Leaders of the Opposition have made over 100 net gains at at next election, Attlee, Blair, and Cameron, so Starmer will be joining stellar company if he achieves it. My own opinion is that Labour probably needs to only make around 40 net gains from…

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The Prince of Wales of people’s hearts, in people’s hearts, and votes?

The Prince of Wales of people’s hearts, in people’s hearts, and votes?

Boris Johnson isn’t the only British politician experiencing a vaccine boost The voting intention section of the YouGov polling of Wales was quite disheartening for Labour. Regular readers of this website are aware that leader ratings and other related supplementaries are often better pointers of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures ergo there is a bit of hope for Labour. As we can see in the second tweet Mark Drakeford’s ratings show he is the first Welsh Prince of…

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At GE2019 LAB was led by a man who had negative ratings even amongst those who had voted for the party 2 years earlier

At GE2019 LAB was led by a man who had negative ratings even amongst those who had voted for the party 2 years earlier

How the opposition leader’s ratings collapsed in the final few days Yesterday I found myself looking back over some GE2019 polling and one of the remarkable things that I don’t think had been picked up at the time is in the panel above. These were YouGov’s last favourability ratings before the general election and as can be seen Corbyn was in negative territory almost across the board even amongst those who had voted for the party two and a half…

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Labour’s paths to victory: the choices of Sir Keir Starmer

Labour’s paths to victory: the choices of Sir Keir Starmer

The wheel turns.  In 2005, Labour won 355 seats, a majority of 64.  The Conservatives got just 198.  But last year, the Conservatives took 365 seats, a majority of 80, while Labour secured just 202.  The two elections as close to exact reverses of each other as you’ll ever get for the major parties. Labour would like to turn the tables again.  In order to do so, they’ll need to decide how this is achievable.  In essence, they have three…

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The latest Opinium poll has Starmer beating Johnson on thirteen different measures yet still the Tories retain their 4% voting lead

The latest Opinium poll has Starmer beating Johnson on thirteen different measures yet still the Tories retain their 4% voting lead

Good news for the red team as their leader completes his first three months? The above chart from Opinium sets out the responses to a wide range of match-ups between Starmer and Johnson and as can be seen these sre not good for the current incumbent at Number 10. One of the reasons as you look through the detail is that voters of just about all persuasions including Tories are reluctant to give the new LAB leader and former DPP…

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Starmer is the most popular leader of the opposition since Blair – so why isn’t LAB ahead?

Starmer is the most popular leader of the opposition since Blair – so why isn’t LAB ahead?

From Keiran Pedley – now of Ipsos-MORI It is fair to say that Keir Starmer has made a positive start to life as Labour leader. Our latest figures from the Ipsos MORI political monitor show that 51% of the British public are satisfied with the job Starmer is doing, 20% are dissatisfied and 29% don’t know.  Starmer’s net satisfaction score of +31 has never been beaten by a leader of the opposition in the 40+ years we have been tracking…

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GE2019 Tory remainers – the key voting group who are giving Starmer positive ratings

GE2019 Tory remainers – the key voting group who are giving Starmer positive ratings

We are just over 3 years and 10 months from May 2nd 2024 which is the final date that the next general election can be held. That’s the time that the new Labour leader, Keir Starmer, has got in order to put himself into position where LAB can take enough seats to make the party electorally competitive. LAB’s seat total from GE2019 was 202 – the lowest total that the party has achieved since 1935. To get a majority Labour…

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