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Category: Labour leadership

Labour’s new leader now has 2-3 months to prepare. How does he – or she – make use of that time?

Labour’s new leader now has 2-3 months to prepare. How does he – or she – make use of that time?

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For an opposition, when you can’t attack, organise Not since the Conservatives’ 2001 leadership contest ended on September 11 that year has such an election been so overshadowed by wider events. Whoever succeeds Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader later today will likely find it impossible to take the fight immediately to the Tories. Parliament won’t sit for weeks and when it does return might well be in a muted form, the country as a whole is in a state of…

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The positive thing for Starmer about LAB’s polling position is that at least there’s scope for improvement

The positive thing for Starmer about LAB’s polling position is that at least there’s scope for improvement

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Well tomorrow at this time LAB will have its new leader and the suggested negative influence of Corbyn will be no more. The big question is whether the former DPP is able to so present a different proposition to voters that first, the seats lost at GE2019, become prospects again. In a sense the current voting intention polling likely flatters the Tories given how fighting the virus totally dominates everything. The Johnson team is in charge making extraordinary demands of…

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Voting closes in the LAB leadership contest with Starmer rated as a 99% chance on Betfair

Voting closes in the LAB leadership contest with Starmer rated as a 99% chance on Betfair

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Just like in September 2011 when Ian Duncan Smith’s victory in the CON leadership race was overshadowed by the 9/11 attacks Starmer’s expected victory in the 2020 LAB leadership race isn’t going to get as much attention as would have been the case without the coronvirus pandemic. On Betfair punters have for nearly a month rated him as a 98%+ certainty. My guess is that Starmer won’t be phased by this and his first big moves will be in the…

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The current big UK betting market: Who’ll be next Shadow Chancellor?

The current big UK betting market: Who’ll be next Shadow Chancellor?

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This market from Ladbrokes about who will succeed John McDonnell as Shadow Chancellor is an intriguing market. I’m working on the assumption that Sir Keir Starmer wins the Labour leadership quite comfortably which gives him plenty of latitude in who to choose. I’m ruling out anyone who is in the Deputy Leader race as I think they’ll end up focussing on that role exclusively. I’m ruling out Rebecca Long Bailey because I have a hunch that Starmer wants to move…

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Starmer moves to a 91% chance in the betting after a LAB selectorate poll has him winning outright on the first round

Starmer moves to a 91% chance in the betting after a LAB selectorate poll has him winning outright on the first round

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It’s been reported this evening that a new YouGov/LAB selectorate poll for Sky Nws has: Starmer 53% Long-Bailey 31% Nandy 16% A total of 1,323 party members/supporters/affiliates were interviewed from Feb 15-Feb 20th. Under Labour’s election rules if no candidate has 50%+ on first choices then the second choices of the contender with the fewest votes are added to the totals. So if Starmer does indeed get 53% that would obviate the need for second preferences to be taken into…

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Starmer looks set for victory but the campaign has told us little about what he stands for

Starmer looks set for victory but the campaign has told us little about what he stands for

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Remaining loyal to Corbyn without attacking Blair has been quite an achievement Ever since the first YouGov LAB membership poll at the end of December there has been little doubt that Sir Keir Starmer was likely to be the winner. The ballot forms of being distributed and are now being returned and you can expect maybe half of them to have arrived within the next week. To recap Starmer topped the MP nomination stage and then had little problems in…

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Ladbrokes make it 2/1 that RLB will finish third behind Starmer and Nandy in its leadership finishing order betting

Ladbrokes make it 2/1 that RLB will finish third behind Starmer and Nandy in its leadership finishing order betting

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Ladbrokes have this market on the correct finishing order in the Labour leadership market after the final round. The tweets by Matt Singh indicate that Rebecca Long Bailey is going to finish last but I’m always dubious when people talk about private polls and do not publish the polling tables. At 2/1, Starmer first, Nandy second, and Long Bailey third, it’s not exactly stellar odds when you remember the last public poll had Long Bailey in second place 25% ahead…

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Memo to Sir Keir Starmer: Unless LAB can start winning MPs in Scotland again the chances of you becoming PM are slim

Memo to Sir Keir Starmer: Unless LAB can start winning MPs in Scotland again the chances of you becoming PM are slim

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Your first big electoral test looks set to be the Scottish Assembly elections next year in a part of the UK where for decades your party was totally dominant. Recovering some of the ground lost there to the SNP might be an indicator that a general election victory could be in reach. The charts above from the Commons Library analysis of the last general election set out in stark terms how Scotland’s Westminster MP party distribution changed dramatically less than…

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