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Category: Labour

Long-Bailey back as next LAB leader favourite in very edgy betting market

Long-Bailey back as next LAB leader favourite in very edgy betting market

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There’s been a lot more movement on the Corbyn’s successor betting market on Betfair as the betdata.io chart with Starmer now losing his lead and Long-Bailey moving again into the top slot in the betting. What’s going to shake this up is new polling both of LAB members and votes generally. It will be recalled that back in June Johnson’s leadership chances soared following polling that indicted that we would do better against LAB. Of course it is members of…

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Labour’s Delusions

Labour’s Delusions

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“It takes 20 years to build a reputation and 5 minutes to ruin it.” Buffet’s saying has been one which many in finance have had cause to ponder in recent years. Turned round, it applies to political parties: “a toxic reputation takes 5 minutes to develop, 20 years to shake off.” Consider how long it’s taken the Tories to get past (if they have) the “nasty party” tag. From its development in the 1980s, it was 18 years before the…

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Labour’s Brexit Divisions

Labour’s Brexit Divisions

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Political parties have always been coalitions in themselves. They are big tents and broad churches that try to keep everyone singing from more or less the same hymn sheet, or at least not fighting in the aisles. But sometimes you can see the stretch and the strain in the canvas as it tries to hold it all together. As James Maxton quipped during Labour party splits in the 1930s, “if you can’t ride two horses at once then you’ve no…

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It is possible Jeremy Corbyn really hates political bettors

It is possible Jeremy Corbyn really hates political bettors

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there would literally be one Leave leader and one Remain leader and I’m not making this up https://t.co/MfyMwtAtB9 — Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) November 8, 2019 If the polls are broadly correct we are potentially only a few weeks from the start of the next Labour leadership contest, for some of us we’ve been betting on the identity of Jeremy Corbyn’s successor for around fifty months so these are exciting times, however there is a potential spanner in the works. As…

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LAB’s GE17 performance is misleading as a tactical voting guide because since then its reputation has been tainted by antisemitism

LAB’s GE17 performance is misleading as a tactical voting guide because since then its reputation has been tainted by antisemitism

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There weren’t front pages like this before GE2017 So far the LAB GE19 campaign has been dominated by furious attacks like the one above from the Jewish Chronicle and nearly half a dozen candidates having to stand aside because they are on record as stated things that can be seen as anti semitic. For the Labour party that is going into this election continues to be afflicted by impact of it and its leader’s actions on this form of racism….

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If the latest YouGov is on the right lines the Tories are set to make gains from LAB in London

If the latest YouGov is on the right lines the Tories are set to make gains from LAB in London

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Westminster voting changes from today's YouGov London poll suggest the Tories could make gains from LAB in the capital Changes since GE2017: Lab -16%CON -4%LD +10%BRX +6%GRN +2% Swing 6% from Lab to Con — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 5, 2019 And terrible ratings for the LAB leader in his home city London has for so long been such a stronghold for Labour that it can be hard to come to terms with the fact that on December 12th it…

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Labour’s fan club is far too confident: 10 reasons why 2019 may not be 2017-part-2

Labour’s fan club is far too confident: 10 reasons why 2019 may not be 2017-part-2

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A recovery for Corbyn is no foregone conclusion; it may get worse for Labour This is not a prediction as such. There are plenty of counter-arguments to the points I’m about to make, some of which will almost certainly turn out to be true. It would be equally possible to write an article with 10 reasons why the Tory lead may well slide again. All the same, to keep things simple, let’s keep the focus on this side of the…

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Where the Cummings “People vs Parliament” plan might stumble: LAB voters significantly less concerned about Brexit

Where the Cummings “People vs Parliament” plan might stumble: LAB voters significantly less concerned about Brexit

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How will this affect the campaign? There seems to be little doubt that the Tories will take hits from the SNP and the Lib Dems in the coming General Election. On top of that there could be messy situations in seats where Tory MPs who have been sacked stand again under a different flag potentially splitting the blue vote. If the Tories are to stay in the game and possibly win a majority then they need to take LAB seats…

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