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Category: Leader approval ratings

Johnson-Starmer approval ratings – the great regional divide

Johnson-Starmer approval ratings – the great regional divide

The above chart has been prepared from the latest Opinium poll which came out for the Observer this evening. Rather than look at the voting numbers which show the Tories with an overall 9% lead what I am focusing on here is how the approval ratings for the two men match up region by region. As can be seen Boris is doing well getting better net figures than Starmer in most of England outside of London but the Labour leader…

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The Scottish leader ratings suggest that LAB might beat the Tories for second place

The Scottish leader ratings suggest that LAB might beat the Tories for second place

Ever since the SNP came to power in Scotland at the 2011 Holyrood elections I have paid more notice of leader ratings north of the border than voting intention numbers. Then at this stage the voting polls had SLAB in the lead but the then SNP leader Alex Salmond, totally dominated the leader ratings. On that basis I was posting on here saying that the SNP represented good value to win at odds longer than evens. Salmond had totally outshone…

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Starmer’s still got an approval ratings edge but not in places where it matters

Starmer’s still got an approval ratings edge but not in places where it matters

One of the things that is rarely done in polling analysis is to look at geographical breakdowns breakdown like in the chart above based on the latest Opinium poll. In this case it is really important to take notice of this because of the huge gulf that it portrays between how Johnson and Starmer are perceived in London compared with views a hundred or so miles up the motorway in the Midlands and then the North. The clear pattern is…

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At GE2019 LAB was led by a man who had negative ratings even amongst those who had voted for the party 2 years earlier

At GE2019 LAB was led by a man who had negative ratings even amongst those who had voted for the party 2 years earlier

How the opposition leader’s ratings collapsed in the final few days Yesterday I found myself looking back over some GE2019 polling and one of the remarkable things that I don’t think had been picked up at the time is in the panel above. These were YouGov’s last favourability ratings before the general election and as can be seen Corbyn was in negative territory almost across the board even amongst those who had voted for the party two and a half…

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Leader and government approval ratings and voting intention as a guide to general election results

Leader and government approval ratings and voting intention as a guide to general election results

Some posters to this site have argued that leader or government approval ratings can be a better guide to general election results than the voting intention question, if not immediately before the vote, then early in the Parliament or in mid-term.  I have been meaning for some time to put this to the test.  I have used the IPSOS-MORI opinion poll and approval ratings data, which goes back to 1977, covering 11 general elections.  Conclusions I have found: three years…

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The Tories biggest challenge at the next general election: Starmer isn’t Corbyn

The Tories biggest challenge at the next general election: Starmer isn’t Corbyn

The main driver of the GE2019 “red wall” gains was the then LAB leader One of the key factors about Johnson’s electoral successes is that they have happened when he’s been up against LAB opponents who subsequently became massive negatives for their party. Thus Boris beat Ken Livingstone for the London Mayoralty in 2008 and 2012 and his 2019 general election victory was against Corbyn who by then had been hugely discredited. If as looks increasingly likely neither the Tories…

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The loneliness of the long-distance leader

The loneliness of the long-distance leader

Where is Team Starmer? Sir Keir Starmer has a lot going for him.  He is credible as a PM-in-waiting, which is more than can be said for his two predecessors.  He seems competent, thoughtful, consistent, honourable, and honest, which are not conspicuous strengths of our current PM.  Admittedly he is rather dull, and a poor public speaker, but overall voters think quite favourably of him; his net ratings were modestly positive in six out of the seven December polls. One…

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