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Category: Lib Dems

As far as Betfair punters are concerned Ed Davey is heading for almost certain victory in the LD leadership election

As far as Betfair punters are concerned Ed Davey is heading for almost certain victory in the LD leadership election

As the betting chart shows there have been a number of ups and down in the LD leadership race and on June 23rd Layla Moran was rated on the markets as a 69.4% chance. That was before the ballot packs went out and the series of virtual hustings took place. Since then the Betfair betting chart tells its own story and as can be seen Davey is heading into the count on Thursday with them thinking he’s a near certainty….

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With ballot packs just about go out Davey is the clear favourite for LD leadership

With ballot packs just about go out Davey is the clear favourite for LD leadership

When former Environment Cabinet minister last ran for the Lib Dem leadership just over a year ago he had big obstacle to surmount – his gender. There was a strong view in the party that then was the time for first female leader and my sense was that Davey felt this as well. He went through the motions but at least his decision to run meant that there was a contest. This time I’ve observed a very different Ed Davey…

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Davey moves to a 65% chance on Betfair for the LD leadership

Davey moves to a 65% chance on Betfair for the LD leadership

Ed Davey, the only Lib Dem cabinet minister from the 2010-2015 coalition still to be be an MP, has now edged up to a 65% chance on the Betfair exchange on the election to choose the successor to Jo Swinson who, of course lost her to the SNP at GE2019. Quite what this is based on is hard to say but Davey, currently joint acting leader, has been getting a bit more media attention than his opponent, Layla Moran. It…

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With nominations closing today the LD leadership betting has settled down with Davey now clear favourite

With nominations closing today the LD leadership betting has settled down with Davey now clear favourite

The latest chart of the Betdata.io LD leadership market shows that Davey is now the clear favourite on 57% with Moran trailing on 41%. We are shortly to go into the next phases in the race with online hustings taking place before the ballot packs go out. The result won’t be known until the last week in August. In non-lockdown LD elections the hustings have played a big part and my guess is that the online sessions should attract good…

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Finding the right frontrunner. Mixed messages from the Lib Dems

Finding the right frontrunner. Mixed messages from the Lib Dems

It’s easy to forget, but there’s a leadership election going on. The Liberal Democrats misplaced their last leader during another disappointing election night and now needs a new one. There are two candidates, over 100,000 eligible voters (yes, really), eight weeks to go, and virtually no media coverage. Perfect time for a look at the betting options. Where we came from Leadership elections are often a reaction to the perceived failures of the previous leader. Corbyn promised radicalism when Miliband…

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If Starmer is ever to become PM he’s likely going to need some sort of relationship with the next LD leader

If Starmer is ever to become PM he’s likely going to need some sort of relationship with the next LD leader

He needs an “understanding” like the GE1997 Blair-Ashdown link The Lib Dem leadership election is now down to just two with with the Oxford West and Abingdon MP, Layla Moran taking on the current acting leader, the Kingston MP Ed Davey who, of course, stood a year ago go against Jo Swinson and lost. Moran is the odds-on favourite. Where the contest could be important is if, as is highly likely at the next election, Starmer’s LAB is unable to…

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Betfair punters have got the LD leadership race about right – Moran has a good chance of beating Davey

Betfair punters have got the LD leadership race about right – Moran has a good chance of beating Davey

We’ve now got the timetable for the LD leadership race and the successor to Jo Swinson will be announced at the end of August. It looks as though the race will be between Layla Moran and Ed Davey with Daisy Cooper as possibly another candidate. The elections was due to have been underway now but has been deferred because of the pandemic. In the aftermath of Jo Swinson unexpectedly losing her seat to the SNP in the general election the…

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After the ice. The Lib Dems’ prospects for 2024

After the ice. The Lib Dems’ prospects for 2024

Nemesis followed hubris so quickly for Jo Swinson, they were able to pass the relay baton in the exchange zone. No sooner had she mooted the possibility of her being the next Prime Minister than she found herself dumped out of Parliament. It is a short step from the sublime to the ridiculous. The Lib Dems also went backwards in the seat count. They held 21 before the election, having won 12 in 2017 and benefited from a clump of defections. After the general…

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