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Category: Lib Dems

My money’s on Layla Moran for Jo Swinson’s old job

My money’s on Layla Moran for Jo Swinson’s old job

s Former odds-on favourite Davey now trailing on Betfair Ever since the former Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, unexpectedly lost her seat to the SNP in the general election the former coalition cabinet minister Ed Davey has been the odds on favourite to succeed her. The election itself will take place after the local elections in May and we should know who the new person will be in early July. All this follows the awful general election for the party…

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Swinson’s successor may have only become an MP yesterday

Swinson’s successor may have only become an MP yesterday

It is a sign of the sheer carnage that the LDs suffered at the general election that one of the names being actively floated as a leader is one of those who have just been elected to the House of Commons. The reason is clear. Even though the party increased its vote share by 4% it saw a reduction in its seat numbers and there is a very small pool from which the new leader can emerge. The current fourth…

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Swinson’s successor needs to be someone untainted by the coalition and that can only be Layla Moran

Swinson’s successor needs to be someone untainted by the coalition and that can only be Layla Moran

Ladbrokes have her at 7/1 The first post General Election next leader betting market has now opened and that is on, of course, who should succeed Jo Swinson as the next Lib Dem leader. The big problem that Jo faced during the campaign was that almost whenever she appeared on the big TV set pieces such as the Question Time special or Andrew Neil she was questioned about her time as a minister in the coalition. Inevitably she was always…

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Where did it go wrong for the Lib Dems?

Where did it go wrong for the Lib Dems?

This should have been their breakthrough chance Jo Swinson confidently asserted at the start of this month that her ambition from the election was to become prime minister. At the time, it sounded exuberantly audacious; in retrospect, it sounds absurd with obvious echoes of David Steel exhorting his followers to go back to their constituencies and prepare for government. Steel ended up after the 1983 election with 23 seats; Swinson, if the YouGov MRP poll has some predictive value, will…

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Swinson’s Choice

Swinson’s Choice

There is an ancient tradition in Britain of beating the bounds, where once a year, various members of the community walk the boundaries of their parish to fix its location and protect it from encroachment. In some cases, they would take boys and whip them, with the intent that such a traumatic event would be fixed in their memory. The general elections of 2015 and 2017 were certainly traumatic events for the Liberal Democrats, and they clearly still weigh heavily…

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Ten Lib Dem seats to watch

Ten Lib Dem seats to watch

The Lib Dems do not lack for stated public ambition. Jo Swinson is positioning herself as a potential Prime Minister after the election, which shows some optimism considering that the Lib Dems started the last Parliament with just 12 MPs and ended it with just 20, many of whom look by no means certainties to return to Parliament next time.   Still, fair lady never won with faint heart. Here are ten seats which will give a fair indication of just…

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So, how will the LibDems do?

So, how will the LibDems do?

A forecast from Robert Let me start by saying this is not an election I have much confidence in predicting. But because that makes for an uninteresting article, I will make some forecasts. Currently the LDs are polling about 16-17%, which is about five points down on the peak they achieved after the European elections earlier this year. I think there’s around a 40% chance that they end up in the 14-19% range at the coming elections. I reckon there’s…

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Betting opens on Beaconsfield which almost certainly will be one of the top constituency markets at the general election

Betting opens on Beaconsfield which almost certainly will be one of the top constituency markets at the general election

Ladbrokes make it CON 5/6: Grieve 5/6 The news at the weekend that the Liberal Democrats have decided to stand aside in the Beaconsfield constituency at the general election in order to give the incumbent MP, Dominic Grieve, a clear run has inevitably set off a betting market which looks likely to be a big one. Grieve, the former Attorney-General, has played a big part in opposing Johnson’s plans for Brexit for which he was booted out of the Conservative…

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