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Category: Local Elections

Opinion polls and local elections

Opinion polls and local elections

I wrote a thread header a few weeks ago which covered the correlation between opinion poll voting intentions (VI) and general election results.  I found that there is a strong relationship between VI and general election results, though the small size of the sample of eleven general elections on which I based the work meant that my conclusion was tentative. Given that we have a large number of council and other polls coming up in May, I thought it was…

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Elections 2021: who wants what, who’ll get it, and what then?

Elections 2021: who wants what, who’ll get it, and what then?

For a mid-term, the govt is doing very well. That could spell a tricky summer for Starmer Elections are back on the menu. Lots of them. After the cancelled local election round last year, every person in Britain will have at least one vote to cast in May, many people will have several. That alone has the potential to dramatically shift the politics of the country but perhaps all the more so after a year in which the executive has…

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May 6th – the return of real elections and lots of data for political nerds to get stuck into

May 6th – the return of real elections and lots of data for political nerds to get stuck into

It has been a long wait but it looks almost certain that Thursday May 6th will see local and mayoral elections taking place once again. This will be in addition to the elections for the devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales. The pandemic meant that no elections took place last May and none of the hundred of local council vacancies have been filled because by-elections have been covered as well. As a result this looks set to be just about…

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This year’s local elections, including Sadiq Khan’s defence of London mayoralty, put back for a year

This year’s local elections, including Sadiq Khan’s defence of London mayoralty, put back for a year

In a move that was probably inevitable Number 10 has announced this afternoon that the English local elections won’t be taking place in May and have been put back till next year. The last time that elections had to be deferred was in 2001 when there was the Foot and Mouth outbreak. Then the deferral was for a month and included the 2001 general election that saw Tony Blair’s win with a second landslide and a turnout of less than…

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The Ladbrokes 7/2 that the LDs will come top in London looks a good value bet

The Ladbrokes 7/2 that the LDs will come top in London looks a good value bet

Today’s YouGov/Times Euros poll with a 7k+ sample has LAB on 15% nationally below the LDs who are now second in the race. The Tories on 9% are fifth behind the Greens. All this should help the LDs underpin their claim to be the strongest anti-Brexit party in the three-way battle in England between them and CHUK and the Greens. In Scotland the strongest anti-Brexit party is the SNP and in Wales PC. Looking at the betting the Ladbrokes London…

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Out of excuses. Jeremy Corbyn, serial loser

Out of excuses. Jeremy Corbyn, serial loser

Quick response to what happened in local elections. There are now few safe seats for Tories. Lib Dem’s competing in shires, Labour in urban south. These results mean two things: Labour will come first in the next general election, & the Tories face huge crisis. > pic.twitter.com/k6HkO3zY5N — Aaron Bastani (@AaronBastani) May 4, 2019 I’ve left the Labour Party after nearly 45 years of service at Branch, Constituency and NEC levels,partly because of it’s continued duplicity on Brexit, partly because…

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2019 opens with a bang and some leavers are getting aerated about the fireworks

2019 opens with a bang and some leavers are getting aerated about the fireworks

Remainer partisanship re Sadiq Khan's council-tax-funded propaganda is a strong start to the new year pic.twitter.com/WRSxDX3jpT — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) January 1, 2019 Are you bloody kidding me? You put the EU flag on the London Eye on New Year’s Eve? WTAF? https://t.co/PNvWe7OhXy — Julia Hartley-Brewer (@JuliaHB1) January 1, 2019 There’s going to be a lot more of this before March 29th Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Local By-Election Review : November 2018

Local By-Election Review : November 2018

The nights may be starting to draw in and people’s minds are starting to turn to the thoughts of Christmas presents, but for the electors in the 22 council wards where there were local by-elections in November, the main discussion point was who to vote for in those local by-elections.   And for the first time since July, the UKIP decline seemed to benefit everyone with Con, Lab and Lib Dem all advancing and as a result of that the…

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