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Category: Local Elections

The screen-grab from the BBC’s LE2017 coverage that sets out the huge challenge for Johnson’s party on Thursday

The screen-grab from the BBC’s LE2017 coverage that sets out the huge challenge for Johnson’s party on Thursday

Could the blues end up a net LOSER of seats? As we know local elections are scheduled for every May with a different set of seats coming up each year on a four year cycle. So this year we have those that were last contested in 2017 as well as the 2016 cohort which should have been voted on on last year It is the 2017 cohort that potentially could be challenging for the Tories. As can be seen from…

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Setting the scene for next Thursday’s local elections

Setting the scene for next Thursday’s local elections

CON position better than LE2016 but worse than LE2017 – the years when most of the seats last fought Next Thursday, I think I’m safe in asserting, we will see the largest set of local elections ever to take place in England. This is because the group of seats that should have been voted on last year had their elections postponed and of course this year we have the 2017 cohort. On top of that we have several hundred local…

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Opinion polls and local elections

Opinion polls and local elections

I wrote a thread header a few weeks ago which covered the correlation between opinion poll voting intentions (VI) and general election results.  I found that there is a strong relationship between VI and general election results, though the small size of the sample of eleven general elections on which I based the work meant that my conclusion was tentative. Given that we have a large number of council and other polls coming up in May, I thought it was…

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Elections 2021: who wants what, who’ll get it, and what then?

Elections 2021: who wants what, who’ll get it, and what then?

For a mid-term, the govt is doing very well. That could spell a tricky summer for Starmer Elections are back on the menu. Lots of them. After the cancelled local election round last year, every person in Britain will have at least one vote to cast in May, many people will have several. That alone has the potential to dramatically shift the politics of the country but perhaps all the more so after a year in which the executive has…

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May 6th – the return of real elections and lots of data for political nerds to get stuck into

May 6th – the return of real elections and lots of data for political nerds to get stuck into

It has been a long wait but it looks almost certain that Thursday May 6th will see local and mayoral elections taking place once again. This will be in addition to the elections for the devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales. The pandemic meant that no elections took place last May and none of the hundred of local council vacancies have been filled because by-elections have been covered as well. As a result this looks set to be just about…

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This year’s local elections, including Sadiq Khan’s defence of London mayoralty, put back for a year

This year’s local elections, including Sadiq Khan’s defence of London mayoralty, put back for a year

In a move that was probably inevitable Number 10 has announced this afternoon that the English local elections won’t be taking place in May and have been put back till next year. The last time that elections had to be deferred was in 2001 when there was the Foot and Mouth outbreak. Then the deferral was for a month and included the 2001 general election that saw Tony Blair’s win with a second landslide and a turnout of less than…

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