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Category: London and local elections

Some important breaking news for those betting on the Mayor of London

Some important breaking news for those betting on the Mayor of London

When I heard this news I stopped what I was doing and decided to take a moment to re-evaluate my entire Mayor of London betting position because of this momentous news. After period of reflection I’ve decided to keep on betting that Laurence Fox will not win the Mayor of London contest in a fortnight. This news may actually have some genuine long term implications, I wonder if this the beginning of Laurence Fox coming under aegis of Nigel Farage’s…

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Great news for those of us who like laying Gammons, Laurence Fox, Shaun Bailey, and Brian Rose

Great news for those of us who like laying Gammons, Laurence Fox, Shaun Bailey, and Brian Rose

Adam Drummond of Opinium has pointed out that the Savanta ComRes poll on the London Mayoral race prompts for every candidate, not just the main candidates which sees others poll a combined 17% as opposed to the 3%, 11%, 5%, 9%, 5%, 5%, 2%, 4%, and 4% in the most recent polls that the combined others have received. But even with naming the minor candidates the most high profile ones, Peter Gammons of UKIP, Laurence Fox of Reclaim, and PB…

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Betting opens for the May 6th locals on the BBC’s Projected National Shares for CON and LAB

Betting opens for the May 6th locals on the BBC’s Projected National Shares for CON and LAB

This time, surely, the Tories look set to exceed 38% This year’s elections cover those seats last voted on in both 2016 and 2017 because, of course, last year’s elections were postponed because of COVID and so will be substantially larger than usual. It is quite difficult devising betting markets for the locals but this year the innovative Smarkets has been creative and is now taking exchange bets on the BBC’s Projected National Shares. These are the market rules: This…

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May 2021 election benchmarks

May 2021 election benchmarks

From David Cowling – former head BBC political research Because the 2020 local elections were postponed due to the pandemic, this May will witness elections for incumbent candidates who were, overwhelmingly, last elected in either 2016 or 2017. Both national opinion polls and projections of national vote shares at the time suggest two very different benchmarks against which to measure the 2021 results. Those elections taking place with a 2016 benchmark are: the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senned, London Mayor, Greater…

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Like Brian Rose, Laurence Fox seems like a clear lay for London Mayor

Like Brian Rose, Laurence Fox seems like a clear lay for London Mayor

Last night it was announced Laurence Fox was going to stand in the election for Mayor of London, he’s got until the end of the month to get his nomination papers submitted, so he’s not announced this too late. I just have the feeling that London is absolutely the worst place in the country for a party led by Laurence Fox to do well with his messaging. I suspect the electorate of London will make Fox feel like he’s a…

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Labour dis-United?

Labour dis-United?

Does Liverpool risk triggering a breach between Labour and its biggest affiliate? Of all the elections being contested on May 6, one of the easiest to call should have been the Liverpool mayoral race. On both previous occasions, Labour won on first preferences with a lead of at least 30%. Labour holds all four parliamentary seats with majorities of at least 27,000 or 60%. It is not quite one-party territory – a fifth of the council seats are held by…

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In the London Mayoralty betting the Brian Rose collapse continues

In the London Mayoralty betting the Brian Rose collapse continues

Punters finally abandoning the unlikely independent The chart is from Smarkets and shows the deteriorating fortunes of the big surprise in the betting for May’s London Mayoral election – Brian Rose. At one stage when the betting was far less liquid he edged up to a 15% chance. As can be seen that is all over and the market is getting a tad too big for even the most loyal Rose supporter to keep the odds up. In this election,…

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