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Category: London and local elections

Betting opens for the May 6th locals on the BBC’s Projected National Shares for CON and LAB

Betting opens for the May 6th locals on the BBC’s Projected National Shares for CON and LAB

This time, surely, the Tories look set to exceed 38% This year’s elections cover those seats last voted on in both 2016 and 2017 because, of course, last year’s elections were postponed because of COVID and so will be substantially larger than usual. It is quite difficult devising betting markets for the locals but this year the innovative Smarkets has been creative and is now taking exchange bets on the BBC’s Projected National Shares. These are the market rules: This…

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May 2021 election benchmarks

May 2021 election benchmarks

From David Cowling – former head BBC political research Because the 2020 local elections were postponed due to the pandemic, this May will witness elections for incumbent candidates who were, overwhelmingly, last elected in either 2016 or 2017. Both national opinion polls and projections of national vote shares at the time suggest two very different benchmarks against which to measure the 2021 results. Those elections taking place with a 2016 benchmark are: the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senned, London Mayor, Greater…

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Like Brian Rose, Laurence Fox seems like a clear lay for London Mayor

Like Brian Rose, Laurence Fox seems like a clear lay for London Mayor

Last night it was announced Laurence Fox was going to stand in the election for Mayor of London, he’s got until the end of the month to get his nomination papers submitted, so he’s not announced this too late. I just have the feeling that London is absolutely the worst place in the country for a party led by Laurence Fox to do well with his messaging. I suspect the electorate of London will make Fox feel like he’s a…

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Labour dis-United?

Labour dis-United?

Does Liverpool risk triggering a breach between Labour and its biggest affiliate? Of all the elections being contested on May 6, one of the easiest to call should have been the Liverpool mayoral race. On both previous occasions, Labour won on first preferences with a lead of at least 30%. Labour holds all four parliamentary seats with majorities of at least 27,000 or 60%. It is not quite one-party territory – a fifth of the council seats are held by…

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In the London Mayoralty betting the Brian Rose collapse continues

In the London Mayoralty betting the Brian Rose collapse continues

Punters finally abandoning the unlikely independent The chart is from Smarkets and shows the deteriorating fortunes of the big surprise in the betting for May’s London Mayoral election – Brian Rose. At one stage when the betting was far less liquid he edged up to a 15% chance. As can be seen that is all over and the market is getting a tad too big for even the most loyal Rose supporter to keep the odds up. In this election,…

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Brian Rose, the surprise second favourite for the London Mayoralty, is now out to 32 on Betfair

Brian Rose, the surprise second favourite for the London Mayoralty, is now out to 32 on Betfair

On Smarkets you can lay him for 26 In previous years when there has been a London mayoral election it has been a major political betting event. That has been much less so this year because the incumbent, Sadiq Khan, looks totally dominant and all the polling has him clearly ahead. This was one of those elections that should have taken place last May but has been put back because of COVID. The big betting story has been about the…

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Allowing door-to-door distribution of commercial leaflets but banning election ones would be thwarting the democratic process

Allowing door-to-door distribution of commercial leaflets but banning election ones would be thwarting the democratic process

Google pics This comes ahead of “Super Thursday” when a huge number of elections are being held There’s a big row brewing over the government’s apparent efforts to ban door to door political leafleting ahead of the elections set to take place on May 6th. Of course given the pandemic it is right that there should be no doorstep canvassing but leaflets are different and it appears that different rules apply to commercial leafleting. The British civil liberties and privacy…

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Get ready for the UK “MidTerms” May 6th 2021

Get ready for the UK “MidTerms” May 6th 2021

A crucial test for Johnson, Starmer, and the new LD leader One of the consequences of the the pandemic is that this year’s May local elections had to be postponed and also there have been no council by elections. Clearly having voting taking place while coronavirus is having such an impact would not be a good idea but democratic institutions have to carry on and renew themselves. So assuming there is no further postponement then the country looks set for…

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