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Category: Polls

Ipsos MORI finds for the first time in a year optimists outnumber pessimists

Ipsos MORI finds for the first time in a year optimists outnumber pessimists

This might explain the current voting intention figures with decent Tory leads, whilst the EU’s vaccine strategy, replete with export bans, has also had an impact, whether this is fleeting or a permanent shift will be interesting. On the subject of Brexit, this latest trend data is notable for the fact that roughly equal numbers of Britons now think the UK’s decision to leave the EU has had a positive impact on the country (39%) as negative (38%).  This represents…

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Light the beacons of Gondor, Gavin Williamson may have just come up with a competent and popular policy

Light the beacons of Gondor, Gavin Williamson may have just come up with a competent and popular policy

We need to talk about betting on Gavin Williamson in the next Prime Minister & Tory leader markets. Being seen as a professional Frank Spencer tribute act Gavin Williamson’s reputation for ministerial competence is lower than snake testes, so when he announced the very competent and popular policy (as evidenced in the tweets above) then it merits serious discussion because these things are rarer than an actual moment of historical accuracy in the film Braveheart. The last two winners of…

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If it looks like an outlier, walks like an outlier, and talks like an outlier then it probably is an outlier

If it looks like an outlier, walks like an outlier, and talks like an outlier then it probably is an outlier

This morning’s YouGov poll in The Times attracted a lot of attention, which given the allegations of sleaze emanating, inter alia, from the Greensill Capital story the doubling of the Tory lead was something most of us weren’t expecting. Critics of Starmer seemed to use this poll to criticise him until it was pointed they were inconsistent, contrasting their past behaviour when defending bad polls for Corbyn. The YouGov poll just felt like an outlier to me and others, some…

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Alex Salmond looks set to do a lot better amongst Scottish men than women

Alex Salmond looks set to do a lot better amongst Scottish men than women

The latest YouGov Scotland poll that was published before the weekend gives a good indication of the challenge facing the ex-SNP leader and former Scottish First Minister as he attempts to make a comeback with his new Alba party. Amongst the men polled 17% were prepared to give him a favourable rating against 74% saying unfavourable. With the women his ratings were even worse with just 12% giving him a favourable rating against 79% saying unfavourable. To the question “From…

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Opinion polls and local elections

Opinion polls and local elections

I wrote a thread header a few weeks ago which covered the correlation between opinion poll voting intentions (VI) and general election results.  I found that there is a strong relationship between VI and general election results, though the small size of the sample of eleven general elections on which I based the work meant that my conclusion was tentative. Given that we have a large number of council and other polls coming up in May, I thought it was…

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COVID vaccination – the extraordinary political divide in the US

COVID vaccination – the extraordinary political divide in the US

One of the features of American politics I find difficult understanding is in the above polling. As can be seen supporters of Donald Trump’s party, the Republicans, have a much more negative of vaccination view than Democrats even to the extent that 42% say they don’t plan to take it This is not margin of error stuff but a huge divide and from what we know the refusers are likely putting their own lives at risk. The technical term, I’d…

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Stopping the SNP juggernaut – what are the chances for Scotland’s opposition parties?

Stopping the SNP juggernaut – what are the chances for Scotland’s opposition parties?

Analysis of the most recent Ipsos Scotland poll With two months to go until the Holyrood elections, Ipsos MORI’s latest Scotland poll yet again finds the SNP ahead on voting intention – 52% of likely voters are minded to vote SNP for their constituency, and 47% say they will vote for them on their regional list. Both the Conservatives (on 23% constituency, 22% list) and Labour (15%/14%) continue to trail well behind. But as the well worn saying goes, a…

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