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Category: Polls

At the 2018 midterms, the last time US pollsters were tested in national elections, the Democrat margin was 1.1% better than predicted

At the 2018 midterms, the last time US pollsters were tested in national elections, the Democrat margin was 1.1% better than predicted

  Twelve days before what has become the biggest political betting event of all time it is worth reminding ourselves at how well US pollsters performed the last time they were tested in a real set of elections. The above Real Clear Politics table gives quite a degree of confidence. The main elections taking place in November 2018 were for the House and as can be seen most of the final polls were in the right territory having Democratic margins…

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Anatomy of an Error – Why forecasts missed the 2016 result

Anatomy of an Error – Why forecasts missed the 2016 result

On election day 2016 the 538 forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4% chance of winning. Of course, she did not. Forecasts now given Biden an even bigger advantage, but coverage of the race is haunted by the miss in 2016. It shouldn’t be. We know what went wrong in 2016, and we can see that Biden’s advantage is more resilient to the issue. The Midwest Mistake It is sometimes said that the polls were wrong in 2016, but it wasn’t…

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Ipsos MORI Politics + Society podcast. Scotland: Yes is winning so what happens now?

Ipsos MORI Politics + Society podcast. Scotland: Yes is winning so what happens now?

On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ailsa Henderson from the University of Edinburgh and Emily Gray of Ipsos MORI Scotland to discuss this week’s bombshell Ipsos MORI / STV News poll showing support for Scottish independence at a record 58%. The group discuss what has caused support for independence to increase, the arguments Scots find convincing for independence and for Scotland staying in the Union and what might happen at the Scottish parliamentary elections next year. Listen…

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A mountain to climb – Labour’s challenge ahead of the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections

A mountain to climb – Labour’s challenge ahead of the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections

Rachel Ormston of Ipsos MORI Scotland and Ailsa Henderson from the University of Edinburgh look at the numbers. The story of Labour’s woes in Scotland is by now a familiar one. Having dominated elections in Scotland from the mid-1960s to the mid-2000s, the notion that they would return only one Scottish MP was once inconceivable. Yet in 2015, that is exactly what happened – a fate that was to befall them again in 2019, when, following a very poor showing…

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New Scottish poll from Ipsos MORI has support for Scottish independence at 58% – a record level

New Scottish poll from Ipsos MORI has support for Scottish independence at 58% – a record level

Probably the most dramatic and politically significant UK poll for months is the above latest survey by Ipsos MORI on backing for Scottish Independence which, of course, was rejected by voters north of the border in the 2014 referendum. Key points from the poll: Among those who would be likely to vote in an independence referendum, 58% say they would vote Yes while 42% would vote No. Nicola Sturgeon’s personal ratings are extremely positive. 72% of the Scottish public say…

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The battle for the White House – Trump’s fight to retain the female vote

The battle for the White House – Trump’s fight to retain the female vote

It is that gap with women that’s so tough for the incumbent One of the great things that happened in the early days of PB (before GE2005) was the creation of the British Polling Council which placed requirements on pollsters to make available certain key data within a fixed time period after the publication of a poll. This is voluntary but political pollsters know that they will struggle to make an impact unless they are BPC compliant. We now take…

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This Daily Express WH2020 “poll” is not what it seems

This Daily Express WH2020 “poll” is not what it seems

Daily Express readers give their backing to the racist pussy grabberhttps://t.co/G0SLKkOpwJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2020 Like many PBers I am following WH2020 polling very closely at the moment given millions of Americans have already voted and the election itself is three weeks today. As a result the above story from the “newspaper” the Daily Express popped up my inbox. It says that “a new UK survey has put the President way out in front in the race…

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The states that will decide WH2020 – polling averages from the key battlegrounds

The states that will decide WH2020 – polling averages from the key battlegrounds

With the election just three weeks away way I thought it might be useful to have the above chart so we can monitor the latest polls in the states that will decide the election. The chart shows simply the average Biden polling lead as recorded in Fivethirtyeight.com. These are the states where almost all of the effort is being put in and where, of course, there are the most active betting markets. The number of state polls is unprecedented and…

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