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Category: Polls

The voters think 2022 will be Boris Johnson’s annus horribilis

The voters think 2022 will be Boris Johnson’s annus horribilis

At this time of the year I look forward to seeing the predictions of the voters for the upcoming year as collated by Ipsos MORI. It looks pretty grim for Boris Johnson and Sir Keir Starmer with a majority of the public thinking Boris Johnson will not be the Prime Minister at the end of 2022 whilst more people think Starmer will not be Labour leader by the end of 2022 than do. Like Gordon Brown, Boris Johnson wanted to…

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Voodoo polling v proper polling (festive edition)

Voodoo polling v proper polling (festive edition)

One of the earliest lessons I learned about opinion polls was that an unweighted poll, no matter how large the sample size is, isn’t an accurate barometer of the public. The most famous voodoo poll was the 1936 Literary Digest poll that had a sample size of over 2 million predicted that Alf Langdon would beat FDR in the 1936 Presidential election. It was only 39% out on the actual result as FDR as won by over 24% of the…

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Vote Green, Go Blue?

Vote Green, Go Blue?

The Greens might need to stop being seen as a single issue party if they want to have more than one MP. YouGov have carried out some polling into the Greens which can be found here. The above tweets are a small section of the findings, the entire Twitter thread is worth a read. We learn things like the voters currently have a more favourable opinion of the Greens than the other main parties which might explain why the Greens…

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Nicola, Queen of Scots

Nicola, Queen of Scots

The Scottish subsample from this week’s YouGov poll amused me immensely, obviously it is a sign that disillusionment with the SNP is such that people are now are moving over to a party that doesn’t even stand in Scotland subsamples of 143 are inherently unreliable and only people who don’t understand polling or betting rely on them. Researching the polling in Scotland, proper polls not subsamples, I noticed some things that really does deserve comment. The last time a party…

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Invincible Boris Johnson’s proposals appear to be popular

Invincible Boris Johnson’s proposals appear to be popular

Today’s Times reports on a couple of polls, first of is a YouGov poll they commissioned which shows Two thirds of the public said they would support national insurance going up from 12 per cent to 13 per cent for the NHS and social care, YouGov found. Increasing national insurance would be more popular than putting up income tax, the poll suggests. Fifty-one per cent backed a 1p increase in income tax for increased health spending. I wonder if this is…

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2 Samuel 22:50 applies to the British Polling Council

2 Samuel 22:50 applies to the British Polling Council

I’m struggling to remember a more loaded polling question but the response was still even more shocking, it might explain why long term Biden won’t take a political hit for the Afghanistan withdrawal. But then I saw this poll from Rasmussen commissioned by Pizzagate peddling far right activist Jack Posobiec and I thought wow Rasmussen really are a joke, they make Trafalgar look good. We should be grateful for and thank the Lord to the British Polling Council and their…

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He that troubleth his own house shall inherit the wind

He that troubleth his own house shall inherit the wind

When the final word on Brexit is written I think the greatest blunder(s) were committed by the Democratic Unionist Party, first off by backing Brexit, which many warned would place Northern Ireland’s place in the Union at risk, and then rejecting Theresa May’s deal, the latter is something which they now regret after Boris Johnson politically cuckolded them by placing a border in the Irish Sea. There’s been a reckoning for the DUP judging by this latest poll which sees…

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The UK Government says opinion polls are more important than actual votes

The UK Government says opinion polls are more important than actual votes

Governing by opinion polls is a disaster in the making especially on nation changing matters. On Friday it was reported A second Scottish independence referendum could take place if polling consistently shows 60 percent of Scots desire a fresh vote, according to a senior U.K. Cabinet minister. The Scottish National Party has pushed for a second independence referendum since they lost a 2014 vote. They were emboldened earlier this year after pro-independence parties won a majority of seats in May’s Scottish parliamentary…

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