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Category: Pollsters/polling

This week’s most important polling analysis on the White House race

This week’s most important polling analysis on the White House race

I’m very intrigued by this analysis by the New York Times, as seen in the tweets above, it probably explains the current prices on Betfair where Trump is very close to Biden. There’s always a danger of refighting the last war, as Elliott Morris acknowledges, but in 2012 the RCP nationwide polling average had Obama winning by 0.7% when in reality he ended up winning by 3.9%, if we see that kind of error then Biden’s looking at something close…

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Polling for Trump v Biden is following almost exactly the same pattern as for the 2018 Midterms

Polling for Trump v Biden is following almost exactly the same pattern as for the 2018 Midterms

If this continues Trump is out One of the striking features of the pattern of current Trump v Biden polling is how much it looks like the main polling for the Midterms in 2018. Just like that for the White House race now the Democratic lead in generic congressional polling followed a pretty constant 7-8% in the polling averages. As it turned out the 2018 surveys undershot the Dem final total by more than one point. The November 2018 Midterms…

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Poll of US servicemen and women finds Trump has lost the Military vote. Biden has a 4% lead

Poll of US servicemen and women finds Trump has lost the Military vote. Biden has a 4% lead

AT WH2016 the military went for Trump over Clinton by almost two to one Given some of the noises coming from the Oval Office at the moment this poll of men and women serving in the US military could be hugely significant for Trump who seems to have lost the support of active service troops. What makes this very important is that last time the 2016 Military Times Poll, found twice as many respondents said they planned to vote for Trump…

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WH2020: Latest polling from Biden’s three must win states

WH2020: Latest polling from Biden’s three must win states

Michigan 16 Electoral College votes Wisconsin 10 Electoral College votes Pennsylvania – 20 Electoral College votes We are now just two months away from the US Presidential elections and rather than focus on national polling I thought it would be useful to review every so often how things are going in the key swing states that the Democrats need to win in order to unseat Trump in November. We all know each state is a separate battleground with couple of…

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The Corbynite delusion about YouGov contributed to their defeat in 2019

The Corbynite delusion about YouGov contributed to their defeat in 2019

Team Corbyn learnt that Labour would lose the 2019 general election three months before a voter had gone to the polls. On September 22, the Sunday morning of the party’s annual conference in Brighton, John McDonnell walked with his wife, Cynthia, to a meeting room in the bowels of the Metropole hotel. What the shadow chancellor was about to find out would prove difficult to stomach. In the last days of August, Niall Sookoo, Labour’s director of elections, and Tim…

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Scötterdämmerung. The Twilight of the Union?

Scötterdämmerung. The Twilight of the Union?

If you’re a (Scottish) Unionist then it isn’t looking good, the tweets above indicate the worrying issues facing the Union right now. There’s some scope for hope, from this observer’s view it appears that debate is being framed as Scotland v. The Tories/Boris Johnson, with Scottish Labour and the Lib Dems absent from the debate. Once those parties join the debate we might see the arguments change. However relying on a party led by Richard Leonard to be the Gebhard…

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