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Category: Scotland

Ipsos MORI Politics + Society podcast. Scotland: Yes is winning so what happens now?

Ipsos MORI Politics + Society podcast. Scotland: Yes is winning so what happens now?

On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ailsa Henderson from the University of Edinburgh and Emily Gray of Ipsos MORI Scotland to discuss this week’s bombshell Ipsos MORI / STV News poll showing support for Scottish independence at a record 58%. The group discuss what has caused support for independence to increase, the arguments Scots find convincing for independence and for Scotland staying in the Union and what might happen at the Scottish parliamentary elections next year. Listen…

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A mountain to climb – Labour’s challenge ahead of the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections

A mountain to climb – Labour’s challenge ahead of the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections

Rachel Ormston of Ipsos MORI Scotland and Ailsa Henderson from the University of Edinburgh look at the numbers. The story of Labour’s woes in Scotland is by now a familiar one. Having dominated elections in Scotland from the mid-1960s to the mid-2000s, the notion that they would return only one Scottish MP was once inconceivable. Yet in 2015, that is exactly what happened – a fate that was to befall them again in 2019, when, following a very poor showing…

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New Scottish poll from Ipsos MORI has support for Scottish independence at 58% – a record level

New Scottish poll from Ipsos MORI has support for Scottish independence at 58% – a record level

Probably the most dramatic and politically significant UK poll for months is the above latest survey by Ipsos MORI on backing for Scottish Independence which, of course, was rejected by voters north of the border in the 2014 referendum. Key points from the poll: Among those who would be likely to vote in an independence referendum, 58% say they would vote Yes while 42% would vote No. Nicola Sturgeon’s personal ratings are extremely positive. 72% of the Scottish public say…

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Scötterdämmerung. The Twilight of the Union?

Scötterdämmerung. The Twilight of the Union?

If you’re a (Scottish) Unionist then it isn’t looking good, the tweets above indicate the worrying issues facing the Union right now. There’s some scope for hope, from this observer’s view it appears that debate is being framed as Scotland v. The Tories/Boris Johnson, with Scottish Labour and the Lib Dems absent from the debate. Once those parties join the debate we might see the arguments change. However relying on a party led by Richard Leonard to be the Gebhard…

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Disastrous favourability ratings for Johnson in Scotland but a glimmer of hope for Starmer

Disastrous favourability ratings for Johnson in Scotland but a glimmer of hope for Starmer

Regular PBers will know that at this stage before a general election I take much more notice of leadership ratings than voting intention polls. With the former those sampled are asked for simply an opinion whereas with voting questions they are asked to predict what they might or might not do in 3/4 years time when they could not even turn out. When tested in real elections such as 1992 and 2015 the leader ratings have got the outcome right…

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It appears Brexit and the handling of Covid-19 by the Scottish & Westminster governments is pushing Scotland inexorably towards independence

It appears Brexit and the handling of Covid-19 by the Scottish & Westminster governments is pushing Scotland inexorably towards independence

In today’s Sunday Times we see another poll that’s great for the SNP and supporters of Scottish independence, I was struck by Professor Sir John Curtice’s analysis in the Sunday Times Although Scotland has had among the world’s highest proportion of Covid-related fatalities, based on excess deaths, Sturgeon has an approval rating of plus 60 for her handling of the crisis — measuring the difference between those who think she has done a good or a bad job. By contrast,…

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Holyrood 2021: The election that could kill the Union stone dead?

Holyrood 2021: The election that could kill the Union stone dead?

I’m genuinely looking forward to next year’s Holyrood election, 2011 and 2016 were really profitable elections thanks to Iain Grey’s dire ratings indicating a shellacking for Labour and in 2016 you could get 8/1 on the day of the election on the SNP not obtaining a majority, sometimes betting from distance gives a great perspective. On the political front this might be the most important election this decade, if the the SNP win a majority then it reinforces their mandate…

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