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Category: Scotland

Can the Scottish Tories without Ruth Davidson hold onto most or all of their 13 MPs?

Can the Scottish Tories without Ruth Davidson hold onto most or all of their 13 MPs?

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? At a pinch this might impact on Johnson’s majority hopes Two and a half years ago the Tory star was then Scottish leader Ruth Davidson who saw her party north of the border make 12 gains to add to their previous single seat in Scotland. She was widely hailed as the future of the party and, even though not an MP, rose sharpy in the next Westminster leader betting. There was little doubt that it was Davidson who saved…

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New Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll suggests SNP gains from LAB and CON north of the border

New Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll suggests SNP gains from LAB and CON north of the border

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From @IpsosMORI Scotland poll with vote changes on Scottish results at GE2017. This points to SNP gains from both LAB and CON CON 26 -2.6LAB 16 -11.1LD 11 +4.2SNP 44 +7.1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2019 This could make Johnson’s majority bid that bit harder The part of the UK that has seen the most turbulence with many seats changing hands at the past two general elections has been Scotland which is why special attention needs to be…

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If this polling turns out to be accurate then it is great news for the SNP and Boris Johnson

If this polling turns out to be accurate then it is great news for the SNP and Boris Johnson

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A poll graphic with a range of exciting facial expressions on our party leaders? Ok, seeing as it’s you pic.twitter.com/ASI9ckwxXn — Jason Allardyce (@SundayTimesSco) November 24, 2019 I have to admit I wasn’t expecting to see this, after all it was heavily trailed earlier on this year, that the Johnson/Cummings strategy to sacrifice Scottish and Remain inclined seats to win a plethora of Labour held Leave inclined seats. As the country’s greatest ever psephologist, Professor Sir John Curtice, writes Just…

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Betting on the Scottish battlegrounds

Betting on the Scottish battlegrounds

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Goodness knows I try not to offend. Among the more controversial posts that I have ever put up, however, was one that concerned the SNP’s results at the last election. I noted that the SNP had lost more seats than the Conservatives and that they came within a whisker of losing many more. Their strategic position for the next election looked terrible. This did not go down well with the nationalist fraternity. Yet here we are in 2019, facing that…

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New Scotland only poll has the Tories losing most of the gains made at GE2017 and support for independence at 50%

New Scotland only poll has the Tories losing most of the gains made at GE2017 and support for independence at 50%

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New Scotland only poll by Panelbase for the Sunday Times find support for independence at 50% and the Tories losing the majority of Scottish Westminster seats won at GE17 https://t.co/syj1N2Kmdr pic.twitter.com/ASOz17y6qr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2019 Scottish Westminster voting intentions with changes from GE2017 in Scotland SNP 39% +2.1 CON 21% -7.6 LAB 20% -7.1 LD 13% +6.2 GRN 2% +1.8 BREX 5% Bad news for both Boris and Jezza but positive news for Jo At the past…

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The Cummings & Johnson strategy could well be dubbed as the charge of the light in the head brigade

The Cummings & Johnson strategy could well be dubbed as the charge of the light in the head brigade

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Tonight's @YouGov poll on Scotland for @thetimesscot. Tories down to 3 seats in Scotland as the SNP surge to 51 seats in Westminster election. https://t.co/Ya700pzFuL pic.twitter.com/wkrCSsYDwI — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 3, 2019 Sacrificing some of your MPs is what Sir Humphrey would call a ‘courageous’ move. For a while it has been clear that the strategy (sic) of Boris Johnson and his team is to effectively sacrifice Tory MPs in Scotland and to the Lib Dems in Remain areas of…

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Before we can make judgements about the outcome of an early general election we need new Scotland only polling

Before we can make judgements about the outcome of an early general election we need new Scotland only polling

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The last one was in June There’s been a lot of GB voting intention polling since Mr Johnson became the new Tory leader and Prime Minister but none of it has been Scotland specific. One thing we do know is that is can be highly misleading keying the latest GB poll shares into Baxter and getting anything that is relevant to Scotland. North of the border, as we all know, is the part of the UK which has seen the…

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Ruth Davidson’s hard won Scots Tory gains at GE2017 look set to evaporate at an early general election

Ruth Davidson’s hard won Scots Tory gains at GE2017 look set to evaporate at an early general election

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Gloomy numbers for Boris as he considers going to the country One thing that is looking increasingly likely at the next election is that a lot more seats are going to change hands than usual. BJohnson’s party will be looking to make gains in Leave areas to offset likely losses to the resurgent LDs and in Scotland the SNP. This has been reinforced from more data from Lord Ashcroft’s Scottish poll featured in the chart above. There was no conventional…

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