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Category: Sean Fear’s Friday slots

Sean Fear – a great loss for the Tories and a great catch for UKIP

Sean Fear – a great loss for the Tories and a great catch for UKIP

One thing that Sean isn’t is a “fruit-cake” On one of the Syrian threads last week long-standing PB regular, Sean Fear, announced that he’d switched from the Tories to UKIP. Sean’s relationship with the site is a long one. Back in 2004 he became just about the first regular Tory poster here at a time when the threads were totally dominated dominated by Labour supporters. He built up a great reputation for his courtesy, his detailed knowledge of elections and…

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How London Voted

How London Voted

Wikimedia Commons Sean Fear reviews the Mayoral and Assembly elections The London Mayoral election was closer than expected. Boris Johnson finished up beating Ken Livingstone by 44% to 40% on first preferences, and by 51.5 to 48.5% on second preferences. This was closer than the polls had predicted. It was nonetheless, an impressive performance for Johnson to hold on, when Labour were making sweeping gains across the country. Johnson is almost unique among Conservatives, in being able to appeal strongly…

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Sean Fear asks: Why’s only one pollster got Labour in the 40s?

Sean Fear asks: Why’s only one pollster got Labour in the 40s?

Surely the party of the Two Eds should be miles ahead? Something curious is happening in British politics. The economy is weak, unemployment is running at 2.5m, and significant, and unpopular, cuts in public spending are being pushed through. In such a situation, one would expect the Opposition to have opened up a big lead in opinion polls, and to make sweeping gains in local elections. In the run up to the last election, plenty of commentators expected the new…

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Sean Fear looks to next May’s locals

Sean Fear looks to next May’s locals

How much potential is there for Labour progress? Regular readers of this blog will know that I regard local by-election results as being a good lead indicator of the next round of local elections. Despite having gigantic opinion poll leads from 1997-2003, the last Labour government regularly lost ground in successive rounds of local elections, during that period. Local by-elections pointed to these losses, whereas national opinion polls did not. The point should be obvious. National opinion polls are snapshots…

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Sean Fear asks: “What If the Cuts Aren’t Unpopular?”

Sean Fear asks: “What If the Cuts Aren’t Unpopular?”

Should we be challenging the current orthodoxy? Conventional wisdom has it that the Coalition will become extremely unpopular, once its announces the likely cuts in public spending on October 20th , and in particular, once they start to be implemented next year. According to Lord Ashcroft’s recent survey, a majority of Labour members, and Union activists, are convinced that Coalition unpopularity will, on its own, be sufficient to deliver a Labour victory in 2015, although I doubt if that view…

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Sean Fear asks: Why did the Tories fall short in London?

Sean Fear asks: Why did the Tories fall short in London?

Are there lessons for next time? Labour’s relatively strong performance in London was one of the most surprising outcomes of the general election. Prior to this election, Yougov had had an excellent record of predicting election results in London, and were forecasting a swing of 5-6% in favour of the Conservatives. On the day, the swing was just 2.5%. Overall, the outcome was not as bad for the Conservatives as it might have been. The party picked up some of…

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The betting moves back a notch to EdM

The betting moves back a notch to EdM

Betfair Politics Candidate Best bookie price Betfair Back – Lay David Miliband 2/5 1.43 – 1.45 Ed Miliband 9/4 3.4 – 3.5 Ed Balls 66/1 110 – 140 Andy Burnham 80/1 70 – 130 Diane Abbott 150/1 220 – 390 If the election is running to plan then the first ballot papers should be going out to qualified voters in the three sections of the electoral college at the end of next week. So far the only firm polling evidence…

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Sean Fear: “What’s happened to the Tory right?”

Sean Fear: “What’s happened to the Tory right?”

Republished Why aren’t they in open revolt? There is a widespread view that the Right of the Conservative Party loathe the Coalition with the Liberal Democrats, after the Conservatives’ failure to win an overall majority on May 6th, and will be looking to break up the Coalition as soon as they can. Certainly, Right wing Conservatives have gained fewer ministerial posts than they could have expected, had the Party won enough seats to govern on its own. Likewise, cherished policies…

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