Browsed by
Category: Starmer

Will Starmer be Labour leader at the next general election?

Will Starmer be Labour leader at the next general election?

Comments 0 Comment

I’ve generally avoided the market on when Sir Keir Starmer will cease to be Labour leader because the year of the next general election is uncertain thanks to planned repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act and talk of Boris Johnson planning to call a 2023 election. This market from Ladbrokes is much more easier for me, will Starmer be Labour Leader at the next election and my inclination is to back Yes. Given how hard it is force out a…

Read More Read More

Tories forever?

Tories forever?

Comments 0 Comment

There used to be such a thing in politics as the pendulum. Rather like its physical counterpart, it appears to have gone out of fashion. In fact, there were two pendulums operating simultaneously, one between general elections and one across them. The intra-election pendulum would traditionally swing away from the government after it was elected, as it created a lot of disruption implementing its reforms and, probably, front-loaded other unpopular decisions it felt it had to take, while it had…

Read More Read More

A reminder: Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority

A reminder: Starmer needs a net gain of 124 seats at the next GE to win a majority

Comments 0 Comment

A reminder of the atrocious legacy Corbyn bequeathed Starmer & Labour Today is Sir Keir Starmer’s first anniversary as Labour leader and I thought it would be worth remembering the position Starmer inherited. Only three Leaders of the Opposition have made over 100 net gains at at next election, Attlee, Blair, and Cameron, so Starmer will be joining stellar company if he achieves it. My own opinion is that Labour probably needs to only make around 40 net gains from…

Read More Read More

For the first time since July Johnson is back on top in YouGov’s “Best PM” ratings

For the first time since July Johnson is back on top in YouGov’s “Best PM” ratings

Comments 0 Comment

But still the “not sures” are in the lead One of the most extraordinary polling trends that hasn’t been commented on that much is seen in the above YouGov table of its best prime minister ratings. For until Boris Johnson came on the scene it was almost a racing certainty that the incumbent Prime Minister would top responses to this question and, indeed, just ten months ago Johnson had leads of up 24%. Of the pollsters that ask this regularly…

Read More Read More

The Tories biggest challenge at the next general election: Starmer isn’t Corbyn

The Tories biggest challenge at the next general election: Starmer isn’t Corbyn

Comments 0 Comment

The main driver of the GE2019 “red wall” gains was the then LAB leader One of the key factors about Johnson’s electoral successes is that they have happened when he’s been up against LAB opponents who subsequently became massive negatives for their party. Thus Boris beat Ken Livingstone for the London Mayoralty in 2008 and 2012 and his 2019 general election victory was against Corbyn who by then had been hugely discredited. If as looks increasingly likely neither the Tories…

Read More Read More

Starmer, not up to it?

Starmer, not up to it?

Comments 0 Comment

As I noted in the previous thread that looking at the supplementary questions in polls are often much more useful pointers than headline voting intention figures and this is another supplementary that caught my attention in light of the pandemic and the UK having such appalling death figures related to Covid-19. During, what one hopes is, a once in a century pandemic Labour would hope their leader would be the person best equipped to hold the government to account. Instead…

Read More Read More

The loneliness of the long-distance leader

The loneliness of the long-distance leader

Comments 0 Comment

Where is Team Starmer? Sir Keir Starmer has a lot going for him.  He is credible as a PM-in-waiting, which is more than can be said for his two predecessors.  He seems competent, thoughtful, consistent, honourable, and honest, which are not conspicuous strengths of our current PM.  Admittedly he is rather dull, and a poor public speaker, but overall voters think quite favourably of him; his net ratings were modestly positive in six out of the seven December polls. One…

Read More Read More

Labour’s paths to victory: the choices of Sir Keir Starmer

Labour’s paths to victory: the choices of Sir Keir Starmer

Comments 0 Comment

The wheel turns.  In 2005, Labour won 355 seats, a majority of 64.  The Conservatives got just 198.  But last year, the Conservatives took 365 seats, a majority of 80, while Labour secured just 202.  The two elections as close to exact reverses of each other as you’ll ever get for the major parties. Labour would like to turn the tables again.  In order to do so, they’ll need to decide how this is achievable.  In essence, they have three…

Read More Read More