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Category: The “Golden Rule” Seat Calculations

What if the “golden rule” was proved right?

What if the “golden rule” was proved right?

Could Cameron really be heading for a 260 seat majority? One of the things I often write when talking about UK polling is that based on two decades of general elections, every single London mayoral race and every single by election where there has been polling the “golden rule” has applied. This says simply that the most accurate survey when tested against real votes has been the one that has had Labour in the least favourable position. So the seat…

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Introducing the “Golden Rule” seat calculations

Introducing the “Golden Rule” seat calculations

One thing that Friday’s London mayoral result showed was that I term “The Golden Rule of British Polling” still applied. For based on the results of the last four general elections and all three London Mayoral races the most accurate poll has always been the one showing Labour (Ken in 2000) in the least favourable position in relation to the Tories. The rule was the key factor that determined my betting in last week’s election and in the end I…

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