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Category: Donald Trump

The joy of six. How many of these states will Trump win?

The joy of six. How many of these states will Trump win?

Ladbrokes have a super six market of states, of these six, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, how many will Trump win. To be honest I’m not seeing any value here and see this as a market that will pay for the bonuses for those who compile the odds for markets like this. If you were to work out the accumulator odds for all individual six states to be won by Trump using the odds offered by Ladbrokes…

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It looks as though Trump won’t press ahead with a Supreme Court nominee this side of the election

It looks as though Trump won’t press ahead with a Supreme Court nominee this side of the election

The big development in US politics in the past hour has been the above news from the White House that seems to suggest that Trump won’t seek to push through a Supreme Court nomination before the Presidential Election on November 3rd. This comes as something as a surprise given the comments by Senate Majority leader, Mitch McConnell. If this is indeed the case my guess is that is that they weren’t confident that they would get the backing required from…

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Ruthless: RBG’s death has given Trump a Black Swan to exploit

Ruthless: RBG’s death has given Trump a Black Swan to exploit

The whole nature of the 2020 campaign has just changed. For all her liberal views, one of the most significant legacies of Ruth Bader Ginsburg – via the happenstance of when she died – might be to embed a conservative majority on the US Supreme Court for a generation. Time is short. The Republicans have only six weeks to secure a replacement if they are to be able to go to their voters and claim the achievement of having delivered…

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With just 46 days to go till WH2020 Biden moves up in the betting

With just 46 days to go till WH2020 Biden moves up in the betting

Trump in worse position at this point than when up against Hillary four years ago As each day goes by and we get closer to election day, now just 46 days off, there is no significant change in Trump’s position. He’s still trailing in national polls by markedly bigger margins than he was against Hillary Clinton last time and this must raise doubts about his prospects. A big factor is likely to be a higher turnout than we have seen…

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Polling for Trump v Biden is following almost exactly the same pattern as for the 2018 Midterms

Polling for Trump v Biden is following almost exactly the same pattern as for the 2018 Midterms

If this continues Trump is out One of the striking features of the pattern of current Trump v Biden polling is how much it looks like the main polling for the Midterms in 2018. Just like that for the White House race now the Democratic lead in generic congressional polling followed a pretty constant 7-8% in the polling averages. As it turned out the 2018 surveys undershot the Dem final total by more than one point. The November 2018 Midterms…

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On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much

On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much

On Betfair he’s 53% to Trump’s 45% We are more than seven weeks away from the Presidential Election on November 3rd yet we can state with certainty that this will be be biggest political betting event there has ever been. On the UK exchange, Betfair, a total of £82m+ has already been wagered on one market alone and that is just one bookmaker. All of the conventional firms and the spread betting companies have very active markets and by the…

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Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on a 269 electoral college tie, should I take this bet?

Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on a 269 electoral college tie, should I take this bet?

Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on there being an electoral college tie, by comparison Paddy Power are offering 33/1, I regard the Ladbrokes politics team led by Matthew Shaddick are the shrewdest political bookies out there, so this discrepancy caught my attention. There are a few routes to a 269 tie for example, ‘if Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nebraska’s 2nd District vote for Joe Biden rather than for Donald Trump as they did in 2016. Those shifts, if all other state outcomes…

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Trump decides that he doesn’t need special preparation for the WH2020 TV debates

Trump decides that he doesn’t need special preparation for the WH2020 TV debates

Given their importance this sounds like a risky strategy The next big event in the White House race is the the first TV debate between Trump and Biden – something that at previous elections contenders have put a lot of effort preparing for trying to anticipate how the event will go and have ready some biting attack lines. So it is rather surprising that the incumbent, Mr. Trump, has decided to spurn the normal preparation. According to NBC News: The…

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