As I started looking at betting on the 2022 and 2024 American elections I thought I’d look at Donald Trump’s performances in 2016 and 2020 and see if he might be a help or a hindrance for the GOP going forward purely in electoral terms. As we can see Trump has the two of the three lowest shares of the vote this millennium for the GOP. In defence of Trump, the GOP have only won the popular vote once in…
We’re still allowed to take daily exercise and I expect that most readers do. If, like me, you go for a walk, you have no doubt been treated to the experience of an unleashed dog bounding up to you. As it barks and jumps, you regularly hear the owner breezily assure you: “don’t worry, he won’t bite”. On such occasions, an ex of mine used to reply sardonically: “fuck me, a talking dog”. Academics working in political science have spent many years…
A guest slot by Richard Tyndall Trump’s second to last tweet before he was banned permanently from Twitter began with the sentence: “The 75,000,000 great American Patriots who voted for me, AMERICA FIRST, and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, will have a GIANT VOICE long into the future.” “The 75,000,000 great American Patriots who voted for me, AMERICA FIRST, and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, will have a GIANT VOICE long into the future.” Ignoring for a moment the fact that Trump…
The Dems now odds-on favourites to win both Runoff races Today must be the most critical non presidential election in modern American history for if the Democrats can take both the Georgia senate seats then the Biden will start his presidency with his party holding the House, the Senate, and of course the White House. As expected Trump is doing his best to put pressure on all parties in order to avoid him being booted out on January 20th as…
Trump’s was all about him and appeared like a series of whines particularly against the Republican governor of the state and, of course, the Secretary of State who stood up for democracy in face of huge pressure as we saw in the recording of a phone call he got from the outgoing president. This contrasted with the President-elect who emphasised consistently the importance of the outcome for the future of the US. There was a good analysis of both parties…
Deferring pay for the military, pausing emergency COVID help and a record number of pardons for criminal who helped him The final month of the beaten incumbent US President’s looks set to be how he’ll be remembered. With so many millions of Americans being affected this could have an impact if he does decide to run at WH2024. It could also undermine the Republicans in the the critical Georgia runoffs on January 5th. The fury of Cuomo is quite extraordinary…
With 29 days to go he’s still trying to hang on The political story that most dominates my thinking at the moment is what is going on in the US and whether Trump will actually leave the White House quietly as the US constitution requires at noon Washington time on January 20th. There is little doubt that Trump is desperate to hang on in there and could try to mount very dangerous methods constitutionally in which to ensure that he…