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Category: UK Elections – others

There could be hope for CHUK yet because of being top of the ballot

There could be hope for CHUK yet because of being top of the ballot

Never ignore the alphabetical bonus of being top Above is a photograph of my ballot paper in Eastern region for Thursday’s election and looking at it there are some issues that might help or hinder the various parties. I was with some old election hands in the pub at the weekend and we were discussing how ballot form order and and placing can actually have an impact on the final result. At the locals earlier in the month where I…

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Putting Thursday into context – A look back at previous UK Euro elections

Putting Thursday into context – A look back at previous UK Euro elections

From Sunil Prasannan Well, just a few months ago, it seemed certain that, with a scheduled 29th March 2019 date for Brexit, the UK was done with EU elections for good. But, it looks like that we are in the EU for at least a few months more, so here we are! On the other hand, we are a political betting site, so what’s wrong with a full-blown nation-wide poll in 2019? The recent Local Elections (given that many cities and…

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The locals – how the forecasters did

The locals – how the forecasters did

The actual was CON -1334, LAB -83, LD +703 The above table was produced by Oxford Professor, Stephen Fisher, and published on his site on the day before the locals. Now we know the results it’s very useful to see how conventional forecasting methods compared against what actually happened and is a good reference for the future. The first two columns are by Stephen Fisher himself. It should be noted that Steven is one of the country’s leading political scientists…

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All the signs are that turnout is down markedly

All the signs are that turnout is down markedly

My quickie Twitter survey Earlier this evening I tweeted to ask is people had any sense of what turnout has been like in the locals. My feeling from telling in Bedford is that it is down by quite a bit. These are some of the replies:- Seems low here in Bath. — Hal Westergaard (@hal_westergaard) May 2, 2019 very low here in Three Rivers — norman marsh (@viewfrommyshed) May 2, 2019 Steady in Fulwood, Sheffield at 1500. Suspect a better…

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What better front pages for TMay on the day of the big local elections

What better front pages for TMay on the day of the big local elections

She  comes over as decisive firm and tough The conventional wisdom is that you don’t want negative stories about your party to be making the headlines on the day of any elections. Everything is about turnout, particularly with the locals, and all efforts should be made to ensure that your base and your activists are out there enthusiastically going to the polls and getting out the vote. So I just wonder whether the very public sacking Gavin Williamson yesterday evening…

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Four weeks to go to the Euros and the polling has it very tight

Four weeks to go to the Euros and the polling has it very tight

What is extraordinary about the coming Euro elections on May 23rd is just how many different parties will be on the ballot papers. The Wikipedia polling table above seeks to include all of them and I don’t think there has been a previous election like this in modern times. The one thing that makes the coming election different from 2014 is that there will be no simultaneous local elections on the same day. This is the first time this has…

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With the first LE2018 postal votes being cast the signs are not good for the Tories

With the first LE2018 postal votes being cast the signs are not good for the Tories

The first of next month’s two electoral challenges for the Tories While everybody seems to be getting excited about the May 23rd Euro elections there has been little focus on the big hurdle that the Tories have to surmount three weeks before that. These are the local elections in England which cover almost all of the country excluding London and just one or two counties. Each year during a four years cycle a different set of local elections takes place…

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LAB’s huge post-Corbyn increase in members has had almost no impact on the number of council seats being contested

LAB’s huge post-Corbyn increase in members has had almost no impact on the number of council seats being contested

LAB’s fighting 77% of the seats compared with the Tories’ 96% One of the things that Corbynistas always take great pride in is the number of members who have been attracted to the party since Corbyn’s victory in the 2015 leadership election. With a reported 500k+ the red team is four or five times bigger than the blue one. One the face of it you would assume that this would reflect itself at election time particularly local ones where turnout…

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