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Category: US Politics

Unpicking the presidential election forecasts

Unpicking the presidential election forecasts

A number of groups publish statistical models, usually updated daily, which attempt to assign probabilities to the possible outcomes of the US presidential election. The best-known is Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com. Others include models from The Economist, Decision Desk HQ, and the New Statesman. These models all work in a similar way. They start by trying to get a best estimate of the current opinion poll averages, both at national and state level, correcting as best they can for the perceived…

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What’s the government going to do about the demand from the US to quiz Prince Andrew?

What’s the government going to do about the demand from the US to quiz Prince Andrew?

Will Patel say yes or no? Anybody who has watched the latest Netflix series on Jeffrey Epstein will be struck how often Prince Andrew features with the US paedophile who committed suicide whilst in prison and, inevitably the police inquiry was going to focus at some stage on the British royal. The Sun reports: Andrew, 60, has so far refused to be quizzed by New York prosecutors investigating Epstein’s evil historic sex trafficking network but strongly denies any wrongdoing. Until…

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Is Trump really just a 17% chance to be impeached?

Is Trump really just a 17% chance to be impeached?

Graphic – Recent YouGov polling on impeaching Trump Impeachment is a legal procedure, with an indictment delivered by the House and a trial conducted by the Senate. But, assuming that there is a plausible yet arguable case for it, the procedure naturally resolves itself into a political process like any other. To recap, impeachment is defined as the House passing one or more articles of impeachment, by a simple majority vote. The House has 435 voting members, of which 235 are…

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Trump seems to be alienating an awful lot of voters

Trump seems to be alienating an awful lot of voters

Trump is energising his opponents in record breaking numbers 538 write With the 2020 election cycle revving into full gear, pollsters are asking voters whether they plan to vote for President Trump. In a Washington Post/ABC News survey, respondents were asked if they would definitely vote for the president, consider voting for him or definitely not vote for him — and 56 percent said they would definitely not vote for him. Morning Consult posed a slightly different form of this question, asking voters if they’d definitely…

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Richard Nabavi on the US Senate elections

Richard Nabavi on the US Senate elections

On the 6th November, 33 of the 100 seats in the US Senate come up for election. The Democrats currently hold 47 seats and two independents caucus with them, so they need a net gain of two for them to get control1. Unfortunately for the Democrats, the starting position is rather difficult; of the 35 seats up for election, only 9 are Republican-held, and of those 4 are solid and 3 are fairly safe. On the other side, of the…

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If Ted Cruz is running ads like this then I’m concluding his campaign is in trouble

If Ted Cruz is running ads like this then I’m concluding his campaign is in trouble

Ted Cruz is using doctored footage to make it look like Beto O'Rourke supports flag burning (he doesn't) pic.twitter.com/e7d04WK0Dp — NowThis (@nowthisnews) September 10, 2018 After watching that video above I had one overwhelming thought, Ted Cruz knows he is in trouble in his campaign to hold his Senate seat in Texas. Now why is he in trouble? In 2012 Cruz won Texas by nearly 16% but as we can see from the RCP table, his lead is nowhere near…

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Warren makes first move for a possible 2020 White House bid

Warren makes first move for a possible 2020 White House bid

At a dinner in Washington on Wednesday high profile Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren, made what is being seen as the start of her bid to win the 2020 White House race. She announced that she is donating $5,000 to all 50 state Democratic parties in the US. She is also giving $15,000 to the national party. According to Politico:- “Warren also began laying out a national political argument, calling for the party to pick fights on consumer rights, guns, immigration…

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Huge variation opens up in the polling for November’s US MidTerms

Huge variation opens up in the polling for November’s US MidTerms

RealClearPolitics The US phone-online survey divide By far the biggest elections that we know are taking place this year are the November US midterms when the whole of the House of Representatives is up for election and about a third of the Senate. The main national picture in the polling is seen in the data in the RealClear Politics data above – the 2018 Generic Congressional Vote where we have seen two almost totally contradictory polls in the past couple…

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