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Category: Wales

The Welsh look like cementing their role as the Mitch McConnell of British politics

The Welsh look like cementing their role as the Mitch McConnell of British politics

YouGov and Opinium show different things on the VI but are consistent in showing the Welsh rate and prefer Mark Drakeford At the end of last month I wrote a piece looking at the Welsh Senedd elections and pointing out the Welsh are teases just like Mitch McConnell, hinting that they will break the habit of a lifetime but when it comes to it revert to type. In both the 2017 and 2019 general elections weeks before election day YouGov…

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Is Mark Drakeford the new Winston Churchill?

Is Mark Drakeford the new Winston Churchill?

Ladbrokes have a fascinating market on the Senedd seat of Cardiff West, looking at the odds above it seems a very easy Labour hold, you’d expect Mark Drakeford, the incumbent First Minister, to hold this seat thanks the excellent rollout of the vaccine he has overseen in Wales which has been seen in the polling. However the most recent poll in Wales by YouGov sees Drakeford losing his seat, which I think that might be more to do with the…

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Labour’s Hiraeth

Labour’s Hiraeth

This draft thread header was written in December 2019, but due to pressure of work I never had a chance to send it in. Alterations are shown in italics.  In 1918, Couponed candidates took 20 seats, Asquithian Liberals three seats, and Labour or Independent Labour candidates twelve seats in Wales. I mention this not from any particular desire to talk about 1918 in Welsh politics, but because it marks the last occasion to date when Labour failed to top a…

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The Prince of Wales of people’s hearts, in people’s hearts, and votes?

The Prince of Wales of people’s hearts, in people’s hearts, and votes?

Boris Johnson isn’t the only British politician experiencing a vaccine boost The voting intention section of the YouGov polling of Wales was quite disheartening for Labour. Regular readers of this website are aware that leader ratings and other related supplementaries are often better pointers of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures ergo there is a bit of hope for Labour. As we can see in the second tweet Mark Drakeford’s ratings show he is the first Welsh Prince of…

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Senedd shake-up: what happens if Welsh Labour lose their majority?

Senedd shake-up: what happens if Welsh Labour lose their majority?

No permutation looks a natural fit Elections: remember them? For most of the country, they’ve become a distant memory. Aside from a handful of council by-elections in Scotland in the autumn, there’s been nothing for ten months. They are, however, due to return with a vengeance in May with elections for some or all of 149 English councils, plus 13 mayors (including London and all the large combined-authorities), 40 Police & Crime Commissioners, the London Assembly, Scottish Parliament and Welsh…

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Looking at the Welsh constituency betting

Looking at the Welsh constituency betting

This looks like being a volatile election in many areas, but nowhere is that truer than in Wales. Five different parties are currently polling in double digits and none is yet polling above 30%. Current polls suggest that the current distribution of constituencies could be upended. Polling, of course, could still change dramatically before the election actually arrives. Historically, Wales has been dominated by Labour. They have won the most seats in every election since December 1918. At the last…

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The Scottish play. Will Wales follow Scotland and abandon Labour at a general election?

The Scottish play. Will Wales follow Scotland and abandon Labour at a general election?

We saw in Scotland tribal loyalty to Labour can be upturned by a nation changing referendum, will Wales be next? The latest polling in Wales shows the Conservatives leading Labour 29% to 25% yet that 4% lead for the Conservatives still sees Labour win more seats than the Conservatives so it is understandable why Labour are the favourites in this market because first past the post and old constituency boundaries are working against the Conservatives in Wales. I think there’s…

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(UPDATED) Could Welsh Labour be about to experience a near wipe-out similar to that which Scottish Labour saw at GE2015?

(UPDATED) Could Welsh Labour be about to experience a near wipe-out similar to that which Scottish Labour saw at GE2015?

A new Welsh Political Barometer poll by @YouGov will be published tomorrow by @ITVWales The results go well beyond ‘gosh’ territory, or even ‘blimey’: by some way the most dramatic poll I have ever analysed. And in some respects a genuinely historic poll for Welsh politics. — Roger Awan-Scully (@roger_scully) July 28, 2019 It is not often that all eyes are on Welsh politics but yesterday’s Tweet from the respected Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University has really set things…

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