Punters make it a 65% chance that Johnson will still be PM on Jan 1 2022

Punters make it a 65% chance that Johnson will still be PM on Jan 1 2022

Betting chart from the Smarkets exchange Ever since the father in law of Dominic Cummings said in the summer that Boris would be out with 6 months there has been speculation that the prime minister might be ready to go once Brexit is all sorted in the New Year. Certainly he hasn’t quite looked as sharp since he contracted COVID and he has seen a colossal drop in his leader ratings. Back in April YouGov had him with a net…

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Another day and Betfair continues to earn more commission on the White House race

Another day and Betfair continues to earn more commission on the White House race

Above is the latest Betdata.io chart on the Betfair 2020 White House race which most bookies settled nearly a fortnight ago. Not so with Betfair who continue to accept bets and as I write the total value of bets matched has reached a staggering £793m up £166m over the past week. The firm’s market rules state that: This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election….

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Trump’s ongoing denial about the election results isn’t going down well with voters

Trump’s ongoing denial about the election results isn’t going down well with voters

A Hill-Harris poll with a sample of 4k+ has just been published and finds that even the majority of Republican voters think Trump needs to concede. The overall split is in the chart while the detail shows 71% of Democratic respondents and 53% Republicans saying it is important for Trump to concede, with 60% of independents saying the same. These are not good for the President and suggest that he is not even convincing those who voted for him earlier in…

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Should Betfair continue to allow punters to bet on Trump or should the market be settled now?

Should Betfair continue to allow punters to bet on Trump or should the market be settled now?

The Betfair 2020 next president market at 1500 Nov 19 There is a big debate going on amongst punters about the way Betfair is managing its next president market. While almost all other firms have closed their betting down and paid out on Biden Betfair continues to operate and has been taking huge amounts directly as a result of some punters being prepared even at this stage to bet on Trump. As this is an exchange other punters have been…

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As the COVID crisis continues there’s a decline in public confidence in the NHS’s ability to cope

As the COVID crisis continues there’s a decline in public confidence in the NHS’s ability to cope

Throughout the COVID crisis Ipsos MORI has been carrying out regular surveys when the same questions are asked in the same manner so we can look at the trends. The latest polling shows: Confidence in the NHS continues to fall, 72% of those aged 18-75 are confident in the abilities of the NHS to deal with those who are ill as a result of Coronavirus, down from 76% in September and 81% in June Older Britons are more confident than…

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Veteran commentator Peter Oborne on the real reasons why Cummings had to go

Veteran commentator Peter Oborne on the real reasons why Cummings had to go

A combination of Brexit and Biden? Interesting article in Middle East Eye from Peter Oborne on what he says are the real reasons why Cummings is no longer at Number 10. He writes: Cummings’ Vote Leave group has long argued that Britain must threaten a no-deal Brexit, with all the risks that involves in terms of economic consequences. In contrast, most Cabinet ministers are now arguing with great force that Johnson must strike a deal. It looks like Cummings has lost the argument. ..The fact…

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The best Georgia run-off bet – the Democrats to take both Senate seats at a 23.3% chance

The best Georgia run-off bet – the Democrats to take both Senate seats at a 23.3% chance

Above is the market from the Smarkets exchange on the big outstanding issue from the White House election fifteen days ago. This is on whether the Democrats can win the Georgia run-offs which would give them control of the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate. In spite of the ongoing machinations by Trump to try to hang on to the Presidency and the barrage of legal cases aimed to undermine the result it looks as though it…

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