Light the beacons of Gondor, Gavin Williamson may have just come up with a competent and popular policy

Light the beacons of Gondor, Gavin Williamson may have just come up with a competent and popular policy

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We need to talk about betting on Gavin Williamson in the next Prime Minister & Tory leader markets. Being seen as a professional Frank Spencer tribute act Gavin Williamson’s reputation for ministerial competence is lower than snake testes, so when he announced the very competent and popular policy (as evidenced in the tweets above) then it merits serious discussion because these things are rarer than an actual moment of historical accuracy in the film Braveheart. The last two winners of…

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Tories forever?

Tories forever?

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There used to be such a thing in politics as the pendulum. Rather like its physical counterpart, it appears to have gone out of fashion. In fact, there were two pendulums operating simultaneously, one between general elections and one across them. The intra-election pendulum would traditionally swing away from the government after it was elected, as it created a lot of disruption implementing its reforms and, probably, front-loaded other unpopular decisions it felt it had to take, while it had…

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If it looks like an outlier, walks like an outlier, and talks like an outlier then it probably is an outlier

If it looks like an outlier, walks like an outlier, and talks like an outlier then it probably is an outlier

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This morning’s YouGov poll in The Times attracted a lot of attention, which given the allegations of sleaze emanating, inter alia, from the Greensill Capital story the doubling of the Tory lead was something most of us weren’t expecting. Critics of Starmer seemed to use this poll to criticise him until it was pointed they were inconsistent, contrasting their past behaviour when defending bad polls for Corbyn. The YouGov poll just felt like an outlier to me and others, some…

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Analysing the market on Biden serving a full term

Analysing the market on Biden serving a full term

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In recent weeks Joe Biden’s struggles up the stairs of Air Force One attracted much comment from his opponents and critics. It is a bit of an awkward watch, for some reason it reminded me of Ed Miliband’s inability to eat a bacon sandwich. But Biden’s critics seem to be pushing various memes about Biden being weak and physically unfit to be President, if you want to bet on Biden not lasting the full term Ladbrokes have a market up…

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At last – I am able to have a holiday

At last – I am able to have a holiday

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Like millions of others I feel as though I’ve been cooped up in my home office for more than a year. Well I’m going on holiday to North Northumberland in the morning returning in a week to get my second jab. I cannot tell you how much I am looking forward to waking up and have the above view from the bedroom window. PB will be in the capable hands of TSE. This has been a remarkable and sometimes uncomfortable…

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In spite of CON leads of 7-9% in the polls punters still rate a hung parliament as the most likely GE outcome

In spite of CON leads of 7-9% in the polls punters still rate a hung parliament as the most likely GE outcome

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Above is the latest Betdata.io betting chart of Betfair’s next General Election overall majority market and as can be seen another Tory majority is rated as just a 37% chance behind a hung parliament. Part of this maybe because of the way the market is defined. A CON majority for this purpose requires the Tory seat total to be more than 50% of the total number of MPs. That means 326 or above. This for betting purposes ignores the fact…

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Conflicts of Interest

Conflicts of Interest

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The concerns (scandal, if you prefer) in the Greensill affair are not primarily about lobbying, convenient as it is for current Ministers, Labour and journalists to describe it thus. Convenient for Ministers because they can stick it to a foolish, greedy ex-PM they don’t much care for and can claim to have it sorted by fiddling about with some more rules on lobbying. Convenient for Labour who can go on about Tory sleaze. Convenient for journalists since it is a…

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The Greensill/Cameron affair comes as postal vote are about to go out for the May 6th elections

The Greensill/Cameron affair comes as postal vote are about to go out for the May 6th elections

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With maybe 60% of people voting in this way the timing could be crucial Because of the ongoing impact of the pandemic it is estimated by the Tory elections’ expert, Lord Hayward, that the total of postal votes from the May 6th elections could touch be in the region of 50-60% of all the votes that are cast. The big element here is that once someone has popped their ballot into the post then there is nothing they can do…

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