YouGov/Times “Blue Wall” poll finds six point CON to LAB swing since GE2019

YouGov/Times “Blue Wall” poll finds six point CON to LAB swing since GE2019

As has been widely reported there’s a YouGov/S Times poll of “blue wall” seats to see the change since GE2019. The outcome is not good for the Tories and suggests that it might be challenging holding on to them and red wall ones at the same time. With the Tories dropping 8% and LAB going up by 4% that equates to a CON to LAB swing of 6%. The Tory seats chosen for the poll all voted Remain at the…

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My last bet was stupid – Win or lose

My last bet was stupid – Win or lose

Last week I wrote about the Olympic medal markets, and why I had bet on the USA to get under 111 and 113 medals with two bookies. This was stupid. I placed the bet for the wrong reasons and went beyond my Circle of Competence. A Circle of Competence is a subject area where a person has the appropriate skills and expertise to operate. It isn’t only experts who have Circles of Competence, we all do, theirs are just bigger…

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The growing NHS waiting list is arguably the Tories’ biggest challenge

The growing NHS waiting list is arguably the Tories’ biggest challenge

The Tories cannot go into the next election with 5m on the list One of the inevitable consequences of dealing with COVID has been the impact on those who have wanted the NHS for other reasons who are currently on waiting lists of one sort or another. It is estimated that there are 5m currently on them and this could be increasing all the time. Inevitably the primary focus has been on controlling the infection but as that pressure eases…

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Two Lessons Learnt

Two Lessons Learnt

7 years ago this month the Independent Inquiry into Child Sex Abuse was first announced. Cameron was PM, May Home Secretary and the Brexit referendum not even the teensiest cloud on the horizon. How time flies! After three Chairs, the Inquiry – under the chairmanship of its 4th Head, Professor Alexis Jay (who wrote the report on child abuse in Rotherham, published in August 2014) – has been quietly taking evidence and publishing a series of heart-breaking and devastatingly critical…

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Getting into a culture war with the RNLI looks pretty dumb

Getting into a culture war with the RNLI looks pretty dumb

Of all the institutions in the UK to get into a fight with then the RNLI is surely the one ministers would be best advised to keep well away from. Their job is often to risk their lives in order to save lives and the goodwill they have built up over a century and more is colossal. This is shown in the huge amount , £175m+, that the charity receives each year in legacies and other donations. The public buy…

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The odds here on Boris staying till 2024 should be longer

The odds here on Boris staying till 2024 should be longer

Could Tory punters be over-estimating their leader One of the big political betting features of the past couple of months is how much the betting markets over-stated Tory chances of retaining Chesham & Amersham and taking Batley & Spen. For long periods with the former there was a lot of money going the Tories as a 95% chance and even on the eve of the election you could have got 10/1 or better with Betfair on the LDs. This was…

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Are we rushing to premature conclusions about the latest COVID figures?

Are we rushing to premature conclusions about the latest COVID figures?

Both the Mail and the Express this morning try to paint a positive picture about COVID based on the declining numbers that we have seen in England over the past few days. Such headlines like the ones above might sell more copies or get clicks on their websites but are they being a bit too premature? We have been here before, of course, only for things to have to be reversed with the relaxation in the rules leading to more…

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