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What about our London call now?

. But the Tories are 6% ahead for the London Assembly . The latest poll putting Ken Livingstone 14% ahead might seem fatal to our London call that the election is very close but we have had nothing this time about turnout or 2nd preferences. We have not had, either, the deep probing about the affect of Ken being Labour candidate discussed here yesterday. Ken Livingstone might have been able to obliterate all reference to the fact that he is…

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Monday Call – May 24 2004

Our big call on Steve Norris is three-quarters of the way there Mayor of London – person or party. It’s dead easy to call a 1/8 favourite – it’s much harder to call at odds of 11 or more which is what we’ve been doing for months. We said back Norris when he was 21% behind in the polls and prices were in double digits. Now YouGov’s latest London poll shows that Livingstone’s lead has collapsed to a mere 5%…

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Ken’s lead collapses – YouGov

With just over four weeks to go before the London Mayoral election Politicalbetting.com’s longstanding call to back Norris looks even better than ever. A You Gov poll in the Evening Standard has the split at Livingstone 40 – Norris 31. But taking only those saying they are “certain to vote” the figures change to 39-34 a lead for Ken of just 5% As we’ve been saying for months – this is the best political bet there is. Get on before…

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Flying blind in London…

……………………………………….betting without the aid of opinion polls The next big political betting event – the London Mayoral Election – is less than six weeks away but there has been almost no polling information to guide punters and very little media coverage. Unlike in 2000 just one bookmaker is offering odds and there is a single, but lively, betting exchange market. When Ken Livingstone was first elected in 2000 he was taking on the Labour establishment and his fight made big…

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What it takes to be a good leader

At one of his RoryforLeader rallies, Rory Stewart paid a heartfelt tribute to David Gauke and the three things he learnt about leadership from him. (1) Gauke communicated his values to his team, which they respected him for; (2) he genuinely listened to them and their arguments; and (3) finally, he had courage and was willing to make tough choices. It is rare to see politicians pay genuine tribute to each other, at least while they are still practising. ┬áRarer…

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Labour price up – Tory price down

The polls look as though they will stay gloomy for the Tories Just eleven days before Christmas we said that those wanting to back Labour should do it then and those wanting to risk money on the Tories should wait. That’s proved to be good advice and since then the markets have moved in the way we thought they would. The Spreadfair Labour buy price is now 355 seats and the Tory spreads are 193-197 seats. The big drivers of…

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