politicalbetting.com

It is a measure of how seriously the Swiss authorities view Credit Suisse’s position that they are, according to weekend reports, orchestrating a UBS takeover. It is not the first time that a merger of these banking behemoths has been considered. Last time it was Credit Suisse which considered acquiring UBS when it was in serious difficulties after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. UBS survived, with Swiss government backing, shareholder cash, endless cost-cutting and, eventually, a return to its strengths:…

Read More Read More

This polling should worry the palace Not long now until May the 6th when King Charles is due to have his Coronation. This is all set to be a full state occasion all the splendour that we have come to know. But how many are really interested in the event and could it be that it ends up as a TV ratings flop? The above YouGov polling looks very problematic for the palace given that just 7% say they are…

Read More Read More

One of the consistent stories since Boris Johnson stepped down from the Conservative leadership last year has been that he wants to return. In particular he wants to get his own back on Sunak whom he lays a lot of blame for him being forced out. This is not going to go away and that any moment that Sunak appears vulnerable the former PM could pounce. Johnson’s position on this is helped by the ongoing big Labour leads in the…

Read More Read More

Will these be the election policy battlegrounds? A few days ago the Labour leader Keir Starmer set out what he described as Labour’s 5 missions as the first part of his build-up to the general election. It was almost certainly right of the Labour leader to start getting into more detail and the polling I think suggests where he is as strong and where the Tories are most vulnerable In terms of which party would do a good job, Labour…

Read More Read More

Could this disproportionately impede Tory voters? The local elections on May 4th will be the first to be held where every voter will be asked to provide some form of photo ID when they seek to cast their vote at the polling station. Postal voting is not affected. There is a long list of acceptable forms of ID including driving licences, passports and for the elderly their concessionary bus pass if they have one. Verifying the ID is going to…

Read More Read More

Given that the general election has to take place before January 2025 what happened yesterday could have a big impact on the overall result. The chancellor has made some very big decisions the question is whether he will be proved right. In almost all elections the state of the economy is said to be the most important factor and yesterday will play a big part to determine how voters feel when we all come to vote again. The polls remain…

Read More Read More