Why LAB continues to be flattered by the polls

Why LAB continues to be flattered by the polls

Starmer should be sceptical of big leads On the face of it the latest Wikipedia polling table is very good for LAB and the party is heading for a landslide whenever the election is called The only problem is that there is a very large group of voters who went with the Tories in 2019 who continue to say don’t know. Most pollsters simply do not include them. According to the latest YouGov 23% of Conservative voters at the last…

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The Mid Beds Independent who might be worth a punt

The Mid Beds Independent who might be worth a punt

This is just a quickie but I am hearing a fair bit from Mid-Beds that a name that keeps on coming up on the doorstep is the chairman of Central Bedfordshire Council, Gareth Mackey. .He’s an independent councillor, who has announced he would stand as an¬†independent, having previously said he would run in the constituency at the General Election. He’s clearly got a lot of name recognition in the parts of the seat that are covered by the Central Beds…

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Ex-Tory minister Heseltine says back the LDs

Ex-Tory minister Heseltine says back the LDs

Heseltine was always a strong supporter of the EU unlike almost of the modern Conservative leadership. During the Thatcher and Major years he was a leading cabinet minister and was at one stage was Deputy PM. He is now 90 years old. Mike Smithson

The Pension Triple lock abolition looks brave

The Pension Triple lock abolition looks brave

Oldies are most likely to be affected Those of us who have been following politics for some time will remember how important a policy the pension triple lock was at GE2010. This ensures that the state pension rises each year in accordance with prices, earnings or 2.5% which ever is the highest. Based on current trends as the Express is reporting that pensioners should be getting an 8.5% uplift this year. That does not now look likely if the reports…

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Punters remain uneasy about the Mid Beds by-election

Punters remain uneasy about the Mid Beds by-election

So far none of the major parties has managed to dominate the betting in the October 19th mid Beds by-election and as can be seen the LD. CON and LAB odds are very close to each other. All three of them think they can win so the betting is not really a guide to what’s going to happen. The LDs are the current favourite and that’s partly down to their extremely successful by-election record this parliament in which they have…

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Could Biden Win The Presidency But Lose The Popular Vote?

Could Biden Win The Presidency But Lose The Popular Vote?

Since 1988, the Republicans have won the Presidential popular vote only once, in 2004. Popular opinion is that the recent Republican Electoral College advantage is somehow immutable. It is not. Indeed, 2024 could see Trump win the popular vote, and Biden the Presidency. Simply: Trump has gained share in States which are either Democratic strongholds (New York and California) or in places where he already has the delegates (Florida and the Deep South). By contrast, Trump and the Republicans have…

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Sunak’s personal polling drops to record low

Sunak’s personal polling drops to record low

How much better would a different leader be doing ? These latest numbers from YouGov are very much in the line with what we have been seeing from other pollsters. It is now hard to see how the PM could turn it round. The Tories are stuck with someone who is an electoral liability and looks set to lead the party to a whopping defeat. At the moment there does not appear to be much appetite in the Tory party…

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