I still think Johnson will survive

I still think Johnson will survive

At the start of the week I suggested that Starmer was a good bet to become the next PM. My reasoning was Johnson would last to the general election when the easier seat target that Labour will have would give the LAB leader a chance of becoming PM though probably not with a majority of MPs. The bet requires Johnson to remain to fight the next election something that at times has looked very unlikely over the past couple of…

Read More Read More

Rees-Mogg’s belittling the Scottish CON leader was dumb

Rees-Mogg’s belittling the Scottish CON leader was dumb

Party-gate could move to being about the union One of the side stories of the current Tory “party-gate” drama has been the way that Jacob Rees-Mogg sought to belittle the comments of the leader of the Scottish Tories by saying he wasn’t a big figure. This could have serious electoral consequences at the next general election when the Tories will need to keep their seat losses below 47 in order to remain in power. Mogg said on Newsnight that Douglas…

Read More Read More

The Johnson exit betting now has 2022 as a 61% chance

The Johnson exit betting now has 2022 as a 61% chance

As can be seen from the chart the BoJo exit date betting, as you might expect, has been very active today and now punters rate it as a 61% chance that he will be out this year. As I have stated before I am less convinced although it has been very tough for the PM today with so much evidence building up to suggest he hasn’t been truthful in the Commons. But either Johnson needs to go of his own…

Read More Read More

So what should CON MPs and members do now?

So what should CON MPs and members do now?

Contain the damage with a new leader?? Undoubtedly today’s PMQs was the toughest for Johnson since he became prime minister in July 2019. His attempts on previous occasions to minimise what happened at various gatherings during the strictest lockdown 2020 might have moved the dial in his favour a touch or it might not. He is not helped by his accounts of what happened changing at each iteration and Starmer had a good PMQs. I am still far from convinced…

Read More Read More

Flailing lying silly obtuse Johnson makes it worse

Flailing lying silly obtuse Johnson makes it worse

Watching PMQs was a must see for political anoraks because Boris Johnson’s inability to lie straight in a bed is catching up with him, to be honest, hiding in a fridge today would have caused him less difficulties, his non apology was bad but a response to a story from Sir Keir Starmer about someone whose father died during the pandemic and Boris Johnson’s reply included about the UK being the fastest growing economy in the G7, an utterly tone…

Read More Read More

Now a 58% betting chance that the PM won’t survive 2022

Now a 58% betting chance that the PM won’t survive 2022

The drip by drip leaks are hugely damaging The big problem for the Prime Minister in what is now known as party-gate is that he doesn’t know the extent of the leaking and it is clear that the latest revelations are not the end of the matter. Whoever is leaking this is doing it in such a way to cause maximum damage to the PM. It is striking that each new bit of the story is more incriminating to the…

Read More Read More

“Sorry” seems to be the hardest word

“Sorry” seems to be the hardest word

What a busy month May 2020 was for the No 10 staff. Not only was the PM’s principal private Secretary, Martin Reynolds, busy inviting staff to an after work party to enjoy the lovely May weather, but the story of Dominic Cummings’ escape to his family home (when he was diagnosed with Covid) and subsequent trip to Barnard Castle broke. The newspapers were full of little else for days. MPs were busy placating angry constituents. Some Cabinet Ministers decided to…

Read More Read More