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This is the Sunday Times report on the CON MP this morning: A disgraced MP used a forged document while applying for a bank loan, used a frontman to conceal his business interests and failed to declare a billionaire’s £25,000 donation in an apparent breach of election laws. David Warburton is suspended from the Conservative Party after allegations of drug-taking and sexual misconduct..He had the whip removed last year after The Sunday Times published an image of him next to…

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We have not discussed Trump for some time but he continues to be doing well in WH2024 nomination polling as well as the betting. I’m less convinced. I wonder whether he polls well because as an ex-President he has far higher name recognition but there are a lot of negatives. Although he’s getting old, 77 next birthday, he’s still younger than Biden who increasingly looks as though he intends to go for a second term. But there are a lot…

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A combination of the ongoing 20%+ LAB poll leads combined with what is happening in parliamentary and local government by-elections have continued to reinforce the betting market view about what will happen at the general election. The current 62% chance for an overall majority that Labour is rated is at is the highest it’s ever been and it looks as though it could go up further. All the talk now is of how difficult the Tories are going to find…

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I must say I cannot get at all excited about Labour by-election defences in northern seats which have been held by the party for as long as anyone can remember. There is almost never any interesting betting and it is hard to draw too many conclusions about the result outcomes except that the Tories are in as bad a position as we knew they were Unfortunately, the last few by-elections have all fitted into this category and have barely been…

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A huge problem for Sunak as he contemplates the way forward is that the previous two Tory leaders are still very active in the party and want to have an impact on the future Truss has now re-emerged with her own policy agenda in which she seeks to change the philosophical approach of the Tory Party. Johnson has made no secret of the fact that he wants his old job back and that he’s waiting for the opportunity to pounce….

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After his punchy State of the Union address this week the betting money has started to flow back onto Joe Biden to win the 2024 presidential election. His performance for that nationally televised event attracted very positive ratings and the polls found 70% and more saying he was doing well. I have been something of a Biden sceptic because of his age but I was impressed by his State of the Union performance and the way he dealt with the…

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Tories are always keen to present tax cuts as essential to business confidence and investment, growth and making a country a desirable place to work and live. They are markedly less keen to focus on other factors affecting business and personal decisions. Let’s take two of them: good governance and certainty about the laws affecting you. Yes, I’m afraid it’s time to revisit the Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill and the Bill of Rights Bill. (Yes, it is…

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Expect to see a lot more of the clip above in the next few months as both the Republicans and the Democrats gear up for the presidential election next year. I thought the Biden played this brilliantly and has managed to raise the spectre of parts of the Republican party wanting to undermine the limited social welfare systems that exist already in the United States. This has changed my view of Biden and believe that he will will find it…

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