Another day and now the betting edges back to a 2022 PM exit

Another day and now the betting edges back to a 2022 PM exit

The big question is how many letters have gone in Another day, another PMQs and the overwhelming topic at Westminster is whether there will be an early confidence vote on Johnson by CON MPs. We all know that such a vote will be triggered by 54 CON MPs sending letters to the 1922 committee chair, Graham Brady. When this happened during TMay’s time the vote came out in her favour and she was able to carry on. It is that…

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Scrutiny not slurs

Scrutiny not slurs

On Monday in Parliament the PM made an accusation against the Opposition leader, an accusation described as a “smear” by Julian Smith, ex-Northern Ireland Secretary, the Minister with the enviable record of being sacked for being good at his job. On Tuesday on the Today programme the Deputy PM and Justice Secretary, ironically (or so I hope) described by the interviewer as a “distinguished lawyer“, said that, while he did not have the evidence “to substantiate” the claim (neatly throwing…

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Labour reaches new high with Savanta Comres

Labour reaches new high with Savanta Comres

Inevitably the current political situation is very beneficial for LAB and Starmer and the party has been getting a number of poll shares in the 40s. The latest from ComRes at 44% has this at a new high. The aggregate of LAB/LD/GRN is 56% which is also one of the highest. The fieldwork for this poll was before yesterday’s Commons even and we have yet to see a post Monday poll on how that is going to impact on the…

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Johnson’s lockdown gift to Starmer

Johnson’s lockdown gift to Starmer

Take a look at the chart above and what you are seeing is something that is very unusual in British politics. For it is very rare indeed for the Opposition leader to poll significantly higher than the incumbent at Number 10 on the question of who would make the best prime minister. I think the last time that such sustained gap opened up was during the Blair period as opposition leader between 1994 and 1997 and we all know what…

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Graying Out

Graying Out

Some thoughts. Even an update with the full facts is not going to say that there was any breach of the Regulations. Why? The Terms of Reference make it clear that Sue Gray has only been asked to look at what happened by reference to the guidelines. Not the Regulations. Also she says very clearly that she is not going to make a finding on breaches of the criminal law. Annex B – which sets out the Regulations is very…

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By 62 to 26 those polled tonight say Johnson should go

By 62 to 26 those polled tonight say Johnson should go

And CON voters split 50% to 44% for Johnson The above is the first of what I guess will be several surveys on what should happen to Johnson. The headline figure for the PM from Opinium is broadly in line with other recent surveys. The numbers that should concern Number 10 are those of CON voters. Yes Johnson just wins with Tories but having 44% wanting him out doesn’t look good. No doubt all these numbers and the way that…

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