At GE2019 LAB was led by a man who had negative ratings even amongst those who had voted for the party 2 years earlier

At GE2019 LAB was led by a man who had negative ratings even amongst those who had voted for the party 2 years earlier

How the opposition leader’s ratings collapsed in the final few days Yesterday I found myself looking back over some GE2019 polling and one of the remarkable things that I don’t think had been picked up at the time is in the panel above. These were YouGov’s last favourability ratings before the general election and as can be seen Corbyn was in negative territory almost across the board even amongst those who had voted for the party two and a half…

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In the London Mayoralty betting the Brian Rose collapse continues

In the London Mayoralty betting the Brian Rose collapse continues

Punters finally abandoning the unlikely independent The chart is from Smarkets and shows the deteriorating fortunes of the big surprise in the betting for May’s London Mayoral election – Brian Rose. At one stage when the betting was far less liquid he edged up to a 15% chance. As can be seen that is all over and the market is getting a tad too big for even the most loyal Rose supporter to keep the odds up. In this election,…

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The UK’s still odds-on favourite for Biden’s first international visit – but could he stopover in Dublin along the way?

The UK’s still odds-on favourite for Biden’s first international visit – but could he stopover in Dublin along the way?

Above is the chart on the Smarkets market over where Joe Biden’s first international visit as president will be. At the moment just about the total focus of the new administration has been on filling the key cabinet places and of course dealing with the COVID pandemic. One thing we do know however is that the new President will be attending the meeting of the G7 which is scheduled to be held in Cornwall in June. So assuming he goes…

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While we wait for Johnson’s “road map” is Carrie the one who is really in charge?

While we wait for Johnson’s “road map” is Carrie the one who is really in charge?

Pic YouTube Tory think tank demands an inquiry One of the oldest Tory organisations, the Bow Group, has made the surprising move of demanding an inquiry into the role of the PM’s fiance, Carrie Symonds. It wants this to be independent and to look at her “powers over government”. The BBC is quoting the group’s chairman, Ben Harris-Quinney, as saying: She currently holds no official role in the Conservative Party or the government, yet consistent reports in the press suggest…

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Are the COVID trends positive enough for ministers to ease the lockdown?

Are the COVID trends positive enough for ministers to ease the lockdown?

Tomorrow is a massive day in the government’s efforts to control the pandemic with Johnson due to make a statement with what is being termed the “road-map” back to normality whatever that is deemed to be. At 4pm every afternoon in the UK we get the latest data and what is in the panel above will be the core information on which decisions will be taken. Johnson is only too aware of the criticisms of his failure to act early…

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Ten seats to watch at the next general election

Ten seats to watch at the next general election

It’s never too soon to think about the next election and how that might look in detail. Let’s have a look at some of the individual constituencies that will tell the story of the night.  Yes, there is going to be a boundary review. So how on earth can we identify barometer seats now? The problem is less daunting than it looks. The latest review is going to keep seat numbers at 650, meaning that seat reallocations will be fairly measured. We know how…

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