Chesham and Amersham: The by-election campaign that was almost totally ignored by the media
The above chart shows party by party the vote changes that took place in last month’s Chesham and Amersham by-election compared with what happened there just 18 months earlier at GE2019. It was a sensational outcome and one that, if you look at the betting where the Tories were rated as a 95% chance even until the final week, was a bonanza for smart punters.
A big reason was that the election was, and still continues, to be ignored by the political media. This was the Indy’s John Rentoul last week:
The problem is that C&A doesn’t fit into the political narrative which has for months focussed on the LAB leader.
It was this lack of just about any coverage of the C&A campaign that was behind this being a betting sensation and one for me and the PBers who took my tips, a very profitable outcome. There was nothing being published elsewhere that could raise any doubts amongst punters that this was going to be other than a certain CON hold.
Yet if journos had just taken a tube ride (C&A is on the London Underground network) during the campaign they would have quickly realised that something was going on. They didn’t and that is their big failure.
It is widely known that I am a Lib Dem and am a member of a private party Facebook group that kept me up to date with what was happening. Day by day the response that LD campaigners were getting on the doorstep was incredible and I had little doubt about my 20/1 bets.
A few days before the poll the party issued figures that had them 4% behind which got rubbished by some when I published it here.
The real problem is that the political landscape is being looked at through the prism of Hartlepool and developments that don’t fit with that narrative are ignored.