Back in mid July I wrote here that backing LAB to get a poll lead during the remaining part of 2021 looked like a good bet. First amongst my reason was there was always the possibility of an outlier. The context for the post was a then new Smarkets market on when Labour would next get a poll lead.
At the time I was flush with my winnings on the LDs in the Chesham and Amersham by-election and placed what for me was quite a large bet. At the time the bettings odds gave the party just a 27% chance of achieving that.
Well I only had to wait about six weeks for on September 9th the firm found Starmer’s party had a 2% lead so my exceptionally good run of luck in 2021 continued.
No other pollster had Labour in anything like as good position and there has been a bit of a bounce back to the Tories.
In all polling we should expect outliers.